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Comments on politics, the culture, economics and religion by Paul Tuns -- in short, everything about the human endeavour from a non-hyphenated conservative perspective.
I am Toronto-based writer and editor, whose articles, columns and reviews have appeared in more than 35 publications. I am editor-in-chief of The Interim, Canada's life and family newspaper, author of Jean Chretien: A Legacy of Scandal and a regular contributor to the book pages of the Halifax Herald.
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Friday, June 30, 2006
Quotidian All Power, each Tyrant, every Mob Whose head has grown too large, Ends by destroying its own job And works its own discharge; And Man, whose mere necessities Move all things from his path, Trembles meanwhile at their decrees, And deprecates their wrath! -- Rudyard Kipling, "The Benefactors" The fine line between useful idiots and enemies Jay Nordlinger recalls Max Eastman's line -- Eastman was with National Review in the early years after abandoning his youthful flirtations with communism -- about what Nordlinger calls "certain journalists": "No, they’re not on the other side — not card-carrying members. But say they were: How, exactly, would their behavior be different?" The quote is recalled in relation to how certain papers behaved in the past week compromising national security. Whether the New York Times sympathizes with the jihadists or just particularly clueless opponent of President George W. Bush matters not a lot. Andrew Sullivan's tenuous relationship with the truth David Frum got an advance copy of Andrew Sullivan's forthcoming book, The Conservative Soul and points out that he, Sullivan, is quite misleading when he quotes Frum out of context. Frum concludes his remarks thusly: "I hope that's an isolated incident and that the rest of the book rises to a higher level of accuracy of fact and scrupulousness of argument." Everyone should hope so, but does anyone really expect Sullivan to diligent when quoting the 'Christianists' (amongst whom Frum classifies)? World Cup commentary Nobody likes to see a World Cup finals game decided by penalty kicks but the Argentina-Germany game was still an incredible match. Both teams played strong, attacking, exciting soccer for all 120+ minutes. Neither side deserved to lose and the fans got to see a tremendous game. All that said, Argentina's coach Jose Pekerman made a mistake by substituting two offensive-minded players, attacker Herman Crespo and midfielder Juan Riquelme, to "defend the lead." The best defense if a strong offense, especially Argentina's offense. The team missed their offensive punch in extra time and the penalty kicks. Still, what wonderful soccer. Germany won 4-2 on penalty kicks after the two teams scored only once each in two hours of play. If Germany plays the way this did today, they will be very, very difficult to beat. Having tens of thousands of screaming fans doesn't hurt, either. Advice for McCain and Giuliani From the WorldWideStandard blog, Daniel McKivergan gives some unsolicited advice to two potential GOP presidential candidates: run against the New York Times. McKivergan says: "If Rudy Giuliani does run for president, here’s a target he should pound away on -- the media’s role (led by the New York Times) in undermining the War on Terror -- and a line he should repeat over and over again on the stump – America isn't perfect but we do a hell of a lot of good in the world. There’s plenty to work with on both counts. Republicans would be extremely receptive to such a Reaganite message, and given his background he’s (along with Sen. McCain) just the person to deliver it. They hate the arrogance of the media in publishing the details of top-secret programs for our enemies to read, and I bet would look quite favorably on a candidate who passionately took on the anti-Americanism of the Left. So far, no presumptive presidential candidate has fully tapped into this sentiment. Rudy should consider doing so." The UN is nuts, Part 786,532 From the UN News Service: "Any United Nations peacekeeping mission that takes over from the African Union (AU) in Sudan’s war-ravaged Darfur region will need to work in 'partnership' with the country’s people and Government, the head of the recent Security Council mission there said today, while repeating the delegation’s view that such a force was needed to curb the killings in a region that has also seen more than 2 million people displaced." Imagine if the UN was around in the early 1940s and the Security Council authorized a force to protect Jews in Europe. Would it make any sense for the UN to say that it would only protect Jews with the co-operation of the Nazis? Khartoum is complicit in the horrible human rights abuses -- murder, rapes, driving people from their homes, attacking refugee camps -- committed against the people in the Darfur region and yet the UN remains dedicated to the notion that it must "co-operate" with the government. Insane. The return of Superman and the disappearance of America Stephen Taylor on politics in Superman Returns: "However, during the movie, Jimmy Olsen and Daily Planet boss Perry White proclaim that Superman represents 'Truth, Justice' and, and... it's lost. It was a subtle omission but for true fans of Superman we could only infer that the screenwriters were editorializing that Truth and Justice were no longer the American way. In fact, "America" as a concept is so strikingly missing from the film that we see nary a flag nor hear a mention of the country. This stands in stark contrast to the original Superman movies in which our hero straightens out the Stars and Stripes on the moon. In 1938 and in the 1980s, America sought to project its image upon the world. In 2006, American filmmakers can barely mutter the nation's name. For a kid who grew up equating what Superman represented to the idealism of what America represented to the world, it left a pit in my stomach." It is quite possible that Taylor is right but another explanation is that the producers are looking for international audience. Unabashed pro-Americanism wouldn't go over very well ... well, anywhere else in the world. But even if that explanation is true -- and that's a big if -- do the producers/writers/director deserve criticism for catering to anti-Americanism? A business decision is a business decision, but selling out one's country? I don't like it. I guess my "charitable view" of this American slight is not less judgmental. Thursday, June 29, 2006
Quotidian "As many as possible of the working classes should become owners." -- Pope Leo XIII, quoted in G.K. Chesterton, The Catholic Church and Conversion Buffet criticized Warren Buffet may have given billions to the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation leading to accolades in some circles and criticism from others. William Ahern at the Tax Foundation says that Buffet is hypocritical for trying to avoid the estate tax, which he supports, by giving his fortune to charity. Pro-life groups are criticizing the billionaires (both Buffet and Gates) for their support of anti-life causues, most notably their donations to Planned Parenthood. World Cup predictions Germany edges Argentina 2-1 Italy beats Ukraine 2-0 England beats Portugal 2-0 Brasil beats France 3-1 Interesting On Friday, the PMO announced today, "Prime Minister Stephen Harper, accompanied by Minister of Finance Jim Flaherty, will mark the GST reduction, effective July 1st," at a Giant Tiger Store in Ottawa. Scott Reid, an MP and deputy government House Leader, served on the board of Giant Tiger, the company that his father Gordon Reid founded. I'm not saying there is anything wrong with this, merely that it is interesting. Monday, June 26, 2006
Quotidian "Charlotte and Gertrude acquired considerable facility in addressing her, directly as 'Eugenia'; but in speaking of her to each other they rarely called her anything but 'she'." -- Henry James, The Europeans The Islamic Republic of America Boston Globe columnist Jeff Jacoby: "...most Americans have never thought about what it would mean if the terrorists really did win -- if militant Islamists were to succeed in their quest for political control of the United States. It isn't something that elites in academia, government, or the media generally like to talk about, for fear of being branded racist or 'Islamophobic.' American Islamists themselves are careful not to speak too candidly about their supremacist goals. Life in an Islamist United States would be largely unfree and intolerant, if the experience of countries where radical Muslims have achieved power -- Saudi Arabia, Iran, Sudan, and Afghanistan -- is any guide." Jacoby explores this question in a column-review of Robert Ferrigno's novel, Prayers for the Assassin. Ferrigno says there is no music or cell phone cameras, people loses their jobs for being insufficiently Islamic and Jews and gays take the 21st century equivalent of the underground railroad to Canada. (This, as Mark Steyn pointed out in Maclean's earlier this year, is implausible; would Canada stand up against Islamofascism when America had not?) Women are oppressed and moderate Muslims fear for their lives. It is terrifying and a sober and somber reminder of why we are fighting. Sharia is no way for Americans -- or others -- to live. For more about what an American Islamic Republic would look like, check out the fictional (of course) news from 2036 at Ferrigno's website. Eurabia The Economist has an article that certainly can't be called alarmist on the growing Muslim population in Europe. A couple of questions that need further exploration and not merely in the way that the Economist touches upon them. The magazine suggests that there is something fundamentally different in the Muslim populations of America and Europe (could that have something to do with the American ethos and assimilation or is it simply that American Muslims have been quieter about their hatred of the West? Or could it have anything to do with the ethnicity of the Muslim population, that is, Arab vs. non-Arab Muslims? Or perhaps an Islamic backlash against Europe's secularlism? For the most part, The Economist seems to deny such a thing as Eurabia. It's reluctance to admit the phenomenon is part of the problem of the lack of debate/honesty that the magazine diagnoses. Interesting soccer note Over at the Goal Post, Richard Brown notes: "For what it's worth Chelsea had a total of 17 players in the World Cup, 13 of whom are still there! Essien, Crespo, Ferreira, Carvalho, Terry, Gallas, Makelele, Lampard, Shevchenko, Ballack, Huth, Cole and Bridge. Only Drogba, Cech and Robben are on the way home. By comparison Barcelona had a total of 10 players involved at the beginning of the tournament, Arsenal 14 , Real Madrid and Manchester Utd 9 each." Brown might be wrong. During the European League Championship between Barca and Arsenal, it was noted that all 22 starters were on World Cup rosters; that means that Barcelona should have had 11 players in the World Cup unless one of them was among the injured stars who never made it to the tournament. And how's that for Arsenal; three of their substitutes were on World Cup squads. World Cup commentary Yesterday's "soccer" put a bad taste in the mouths of fans everywhere. England-Ecuador was incredibly dull. Ecuador outplayed England who still won one-nil. But it was an uninspiring and boring affair. The less said about it, the better. The Netherlands-Portugal game was even more shameful despite being a well-played, exciting match. The Dutch outplayed Portugal from the opening to closing whistle, outshooting them 20-10 and possessing the ball 62% of the time. But it was the 18 yellow cards, four red cards, disgusting roughness, near-fights, and the clearing of the benches that marred this game and indeed the whole World Cup. The TSG analysis by Rodrigo Kenton at the official Fifa World Cup/Yahoo site didn't even mention the violence. I don't know how that aspect, considering that it made the whole second half ugly, can be ignored. The Portuguese won because of some good goaltending by Ricardo. While the Dutch outplayed and had more opportunities than the Portuguese, coach Marco Van Basten should be blamed for the loss. Never mind that he didn't bring to the tournament some midfielders that deserved to come (Clarence Seedorf, Edgar Davids), he made unusual and spiteful decision not to play their top goal-scorer, Ruud van Nistelroy. As good as Dirk Kuyt, Arjen Robben and Robin van Persie were, it was odd to not play van Nistelroy, even as a sub, when the team was down by a goal. Other decisions, such as taking off attacking left midfielder Mark van Bommel (yes, I know, he had a yellow card) for defender John Heitinga whilst down by a goal. Van Basten's decisions were bizarre and might have cost the Netherlands the game. That said, while the Dutch side deserved to win, neither team deserves to go on. If it was in Fifa's control to suspend a team in the Round of 8, they should. Give England the bye. Sunday, June 25, 2006
Support Irey Washington County Commissioner Diana L. Irey is the Republican who will face Democratic Congressman John Murtha. American readers can donate to her campaign here. Irey notes that Murtha is out of touch here -- wrong on Congressional pay raises, wrong on spending, wrong on healthcare, and wrong on national defense. John Murtha is wrong for the voters of Pennsylvania's 12th Congressional District and wrong for America. Is God a Yankee's fan? One the one hand, His rain stops the game between the New York Yankees with the top-half of the first inning incomplete and the Florida Marlins ahead by a run. On the other hand, it is the Marlins and the game likely will not be made up because it is of the interleague variety. And, yes, I know that the Fish are 20-7 since May 22, now standing third in the National League East and three games ahead of the Atlanta Braves. That doesn't mean that they aren't still a team that should be easy to beat more often than not. Bye-bye France I'm not the only one who thinks that France's coach Raymond Domench is going to reinsert Zidane into the lineup for their round of 16 match with Spain and then be dispatched from the tournament quickly. Over at the Goal Post, Aleksandar Hemon says: "My guess is that the French will start against Spain in a formation with Zidane behind Henry, which is to say, the same way as against Switzerland and Korea. Then they will proceed to unravel, because the young, hungry Spanish midfield is going to run them ragged. No surprise there--Spain is going to kill them." So why is the French coach a moron? Because all French coaches are morons. Hemon explains: "Why is it that so many French national team coaches look and behave like bureaucrats? Few of them, if any, come from or go to a major club; they always seem to come from the loyal ranks of the French Football Federation." World Cup commentary Germany outclassed Sweden all the way. Two early goals (by Lukas Podolski at the fourth and twelfth minutes) and a dubious second yellow card to Teddy Lucic that put the Swedes one man down at the 35th minute, but this game far out of reach well before the end of the first half. (Perhaps they wouldn't miss Lucic as he literally watched Podolski and Miroslav Klose run right past him to score the second goal.) Podolski and Klose never relented in attacking the net (26 shots on net, 11 on goal, compared to 5 and 2 respectively for the Swedes). Although Sweden came out strong at the beginning of the second half, their efforts were not rewarded and Germany won easily, 2-0. In the first half-hour, Swedish goaltender Andreas Isaksson made three stops that were truly remarkable; were it not for him, the final score would have been more reflective of Germany's domination this game. That and Henrik Larson launching a ball into outer space with his penalty kick at the 53rd minute. Argentina and Mexico was a tremendous match. Thought to be facing a far superior team -- Argentina is probably one of the three best all-around teams in this World Cup and Mexico being Mexico (seeking not to exit the World Cup in the round of 16 for the fourth straight time) -- Mexico performed much better than their South American opponents. Mexico scores an unlikely but beautiful early goal just six minutes into the game only to lose the lead with an own goal (although it was awarded to Crespo) just four minutes later. Truly heart-breaking for the Mexican side. They played just as well and often better than Argentina through most of this match and rewarded with a tie during regulation time. The game then went to extra time where the Albiceleste took the lead at the 98th minute. Maxi Rodriguez was the recipient of a beautiful two-step pass (from Lionel Messi in the midfield to Juan Sorin who kicked it to Rodriguez's chest where it was directed to the attacker's foot and into the top right-hand corner of the net). Mexico responded in the second half of extra time with a shot by Zinha that just missed the net. It will be hard to top this game for excitement; both wanted to win, both deserved to, neither laid back but Argentina was lucky enough to get the ball into their opponent's net one more time than they had it done to them. That's all that is needed and now Argetina gets the pleasure of facing the tournament's host's, Germany next Friday. Quotidian "John Pickford, BBC World Service, came to interview me about George Orwell. A pleasant young man, but the questions these people put are impossible to answer. One wonders whether the generality of people expected easy answers to the human condition before their minds were rotted by popular journalism, TV, the notion that all life's problems could be answered off the cuff by TV 'personalities,' suchlike, in two or three sentences." -- Anthony Powell, Journals 1982-1986 (entry for October 27, 1983) Saturday, June 24, 2006
But at least everyone felt better about themselves The Sunday Telegraph on Live 8 one year later: "As the Live 8 line-up launched into action on July 2, you could almost hear the Third World sighing in gratitude. Today, nothing looks or sounds quite as comforting. Most of Africa is as poor, backward, corrupt and ineptly governed as before. Disease and poverty still kill 50,000 people a day and accounts of war and famine fill the same token slots in newspapers and television bulletins." But wasn't the debt of a dozen-and-a-half countries cancelled? Haven't many countries increased their foreign aid? Well, yes and yes. And, as the article says (but does not illustrate although it could have), these make things worse, especially in Africa. The article quotes the remark directed toward Bob Geldof last year by Moeletsi Mbeki, the deputy chairman of South Africa's Institute of African Affairs: "You do not understand the core problem. If you want to end poverty in Africa, you must treat the disease, not the symptoms. That disease is the shocking lack of accountability afforded toward the African people by those who rule them. The truth of Western aid is that for every pound, dollar and euro that finds its way to the needy, another is propping up corrupt governments such as Robert Mugabe's in Zimbabwe." Africa needs a real infrastructure; it needs humanitarian assistance; it needs economic growth and liberalized trade. But most of all, it needs functional governments, ones that are accountable to both their own populations and foreign donors, as well as government that are transparent and stable so that corporations will not fear investing. Aid can, at best, be used as a carrot to achieve these goals, but are never a substitute for them. Tens of thousands of screaming concert goers last July never got that message and while they may feel better about "raising awareness" of the plight of Africa, their gesture succeeded in pressing the G8 into counter-productive policies that only reinforce corruption in Africa. As we approach Live 8's first anniversary, we should not that it is a cause for shame, not celebration. How to fix crime The Sunday Telegraph has a manifesto on how to beat the "menace of crime." It explains what went wrong and how to turn things around. What went wrong, in a sentence, is that the police, the prisons and the judiciary, not to mention the politicians that oversee these things, have become captive to some utterly silly ideas about crime. David Green explains: "Many Labour MPs remain in thrall to utopian theories of human nature and believe that criminals are driven to commit offences by social exclusion. They are not responsible - it's society that should change. But this attitude does not go down too well on council estates, where the majority think that crime is all about knowing right from wrong. Jack Straw, Labour's first home secretary, published a White Paper entitled 'No More Excuses' to ram home the message that Labour had changed. But, as the recent battle over the Education Bill showed, many in the Labour Party never really accepted the new realism of Tony Blair. Despite the "tough" rhetoric, the influences have remained a dislike of prison, a naive view about how hardened offenders can be rehabilitated, and a lack of respect for the mass of people, who stand accused of being unduly fearful of crime." Now fixing it will be a problem because the ideological rot that screwed up the police, prisons and judiciary (not to mention politics) in the first place make them impervious to change (for the better). Nonetheless, here's the five point plan: 1. Increase the number of police and implement the "fixing broken windows" theory of policing. 2. Make prisons fit the needs of society (punishment, protection and rehabilitation*) by i) increasing prison capacity, ii) treat prisoner addictions and iii) provide education to incarcerated prisoners. 3. Curtail parole by implementing truth in sentencing and having prisoners earn up to a maximum of 20% of their sentences to good behavior. 4. Cut off the source of criminalization by addressing the causes of poor socialization among youth. Encourage marriage, invest in programs that support family life, and intervene by taking children away from parents who are a "bad influence." 5. Create a royal commission on crime to recommend changes to the criminal justice system. The Telegraph editorial explains it all a little more. * I re-state my position that it is not the job of punishment to rehabilitate person but rather that when rehabilitation does occur, that it is a welcome side-effect of punishment. I also note what the Telegraph's manifesto admits, namely that social science has not indicated what works when it comes to rehabilitation. Japan joins the 'coalition of the concerned' The Financial Times reports that Japan supports (limited) sanctions on one-third of the axis of evil, Iran. Iran was hoping to isolate the United States and the E3 from the rest of the "international community" and considering that Iran supplies about 10% of Japan's oil, this is a significant step by Tokyo. Friday, June 23, 2006
While we are apologizing Gerry Nicholls, vice president of the National Citizens Coalition, points to the folly of apologizing for things that 1) you are not responsible for and 2) no matter how repugnant now was perfectly normal at the time the policy was in effect. Nicholls says: "Now I don’t think Prime Minister Harper had anything to do with that head tax, so I am not sure why he feels the need to apologize. But as along as he is in an apologizing mood, maybe he should also express regret over other government misdeeds." And what might they be? "The whole Trudeau era of the 1970’s. Any CBC Show that starred Ralph Benmergui The Participaction Program The National Energy Program Joe Clark Health Care Waiting Lists Almost every Supreme Court of Canada decision The Gun Registry The Wheat Board monopoly Election gag laws The Depression Anything supported by the Canada Arts Council Changing the name of the July 1st holiday from Dominion Day to Canada Day The Durham Report The GST" That's quite a list. As Nicholls suggests, perhaps Harper should appoint a cabinet minister in charge of apologies. Harper's accomplishments Burkean Canuck lists five "notable accomplishments" all of which have less to do with policy than form. I want to highlight three of them: 1. "Prime Minister Harper has done and is doing what he promised to do. He set priorities, and he is concentrating on these as priorities for the Government of Canada." 2. "Prime Minister Harper has set a change in the tone and style of government." 3. "Prime Minister Harper has dignified the House of Commons by restoring it to its proper place as the country's premier platform for announcements of national importance. As I wrote, here: The Prime Minister has insisted on making major announcements of national and international import in the House of Commons, and -- in case you didn't happen to notice -- insisted on an embargo of any reporting on the Auditor General's report till its tabling in the House of Commons. When the Prime Minister's predecessors would make major announcements, they were quite likely to schedule time in the National Press Theatre so the other party leaders would not have opportunity to respond to what the Standing Orders term 'a ministerial statement' as they are entitled in the Commons. By so doing, the Prime Minister is restoring to the House of Commons and Parliament its proper role and dignity as the nation's premier 'talking chamber.' That's what Parliament -- < By keeping his promises and by taking the modest approach to governance in style and in substance, Prime Minister Harper is restoring to Canadians a sense that their national government is an institution they can trust and be proud of." Harper might change Canada more by the way he does things than the actual policies he implements. He has restored dignity and honesty and decency to politics. And while there have been problems -- this week alone he apologized for the head tax and claimed that Canada is a safer place because of our polyethnic society -- he is definitely on the right path. World Cup predictions Round of 16 Germany beats Sweden 2-0 Argentina beats Mexico 3-0 England beats Ecuador 2-1 Netherlands beats Portugal on penalty kicks* Italy beats Australia 2-1 Switzerland beats Ukraine 1-0 Brasil beats Ghana 3-0 France beats Spain 3-2 * 1-1 after regulation and extra time World Cup comment I only watched two of the games today (I'll watch the other two later) and one was great and the other was not so much so. The Ukraine-Tunisia game was often painfully dull to watch. Tunisia had flashes of brilliance and they were fatally hurt when Zied Jaziri, by far their best player, was red carded near the end of the first half. Despite being a man down, Tunisia outplayed Ukraine and they had more quality scoring opportunities; until the very end there were moments where it looked like they were going to score, but it was not to be. There is a good argument the penalty kick awarded to and scored by Andriy Shevchenko should never have been given. Add that to the fact that Ukraine's game was sloppy with no sense of urgency and you come to the conclusion that not only were they lucky to win the match but were undeserving of the victory they got. But they did and they will move onto the round of 16. The French-Togo game was incredible. The Togo side has flashes of offense that never quite came to quality goal scoring opportunities but they forced the French defense to be on their toes. And they were. But it wasn't defense but an offense that never quit that won France this game. From the opening whistle, the French side was relentless in their drive to the opponent's net. They often had three, sometimes four players in goal scoring position when the ball was near (or nearing) the net. I don't understand why David Trezeguet, the incredible striker for Juventas in Series A, hasn't been a starter but Zidane's second yellow card in match two forced coach Raymond Domench to juggle his lineup. As I predicted it would this morning, the changes led to a team that had more scoring chances. Indeed, France made 17 shots, nine of them on goal. They were offside five times (a sign of a strong attack) and nine corner kicks. The great thing about this match -- aside from finally seeing Thierry Henry and Patrick Vieira playing to their potential -- was the unrelenting attack. I haven't seen another team, even Argentina's six-nil slaughter of Serbia-Montenegro, all tournament. I am utterly surprised Trezeguet did not score and Togo goalie Kossi Agassa made at least three stellar saves to keep the score much closer than France's efforts deserved. French fans should hope that the moronic Domench maintains this lineup for the next round; not having Zidane slow the game down and take up time with the ball, and having five attacking players (Henry, Trezeguet, Vieira, Claude Makelele and Sylvain Witford) press the opponents was incredibly exciting to watch, not to mention successful for France. If France wants to go further in 2008 it is best that they forget one player's 1998 heroics. Why France will win Much soccer punditry today (and throughout this week) makes a lot of France's surprising loss to Senegal in 2002 to predict a repeat in 2006, with many saying that Togo will beat or tie the French side. Balderdash. What leaps in logic this sort of sports commentary employs -- that what happened four years ago is determinative of today's match, that Togo is not Senegal, that Senegal beat France in an opening match they took too lightly compared to Togo facing a French team that must win its third game. Yes, France has played disappointing (for French fans) soccer thus far, but they have two things going for them in today's game: it will have defender Mikael Silvestre and is forced to bench attacking midfielder Zinedine Zidane. Silvestre is a solid presence in the French zone and he will buttress what have been a generally good -- or at least good enough -- defense. More importantly, Zidane is not playing after getting yellow cards in both of his first matches. With memories of him leading the French to the World Cup in Paris in 1998, many hoped Zidane would repeat the feat on European soil following France's terrible showing in World Cup 2002. But Zidane turns 34 tomorrow and has been a hindrance to the team's offense, which has scored only one goal so far this tournament. Zidane is slow, has been out-smarted on the field, has registered just three shots (none on goal) and is still given great deference by his team-mates. Not having him on the pitch will allow the team to break out more, resulting in more and better scoring opportunities. They should beat Togo and probably by a decent enough margin to slip through to the round of 16. World Cup predictions Ukraine over Tunisia 3-1 Spain beats Saudi Arabia 3-0 Switzerland tied South Korea 1-1 France beats Togo 2-0 Thursday, June 22, 2006
World Cup commentary Saw the Ghana-US and Italy-Czech Republic game simultaneously on separate screens and it was difficult to decide which one to follow more closely. The Ghana-US game was good -- both long-shots to advance but with the right combination of outcomes, either time could sneak into the round of 16; on the other hand, the Italian squad was the most talented one of the four and therefore had the greatest potential to excite. The US-Ghana game disappointed slightly because the American side didn't bring what they brought to their fixture against Italy on the weekend, namely what the New York Sun's Paul Gardner calls desperation and survival soccer -- or Ramboism for short. That said, the Americans played possibly their best game and certainly their best game offensively with three shots on goal, triple the total from their first two games (and even the single shot on goal against Italy was a statistical gimme 'cuz it hit the crossbar). The Americans also held a slight lead in possession (52%-48%) but the Ghanans were clearly the superior squad, had more and better chances to score and took advantage of a penalty shot to win the game. The African side is to be congratulated for being the only team from that continent to advance. In their game against the Italians, the Czechs statistically matched the Azzurri: 52% possession for the Italians, 48% for the Czechs; 18 tackles for the Czechs compared to 17 for their opponents; a slight edge in shots on goal (8 compared to 6), slightly bested in total shots (11 compared to 14). But just watching the game it did not appear that way as the Italians outclassed their opponents for nearly every minute of the game. The best chances went to the Italians and Marco Materazzi's header goal off a corner kick was one of the best of the tournament; he combined amazing height and stunning heading accuracy for a delightful result. The Italians demonstrated that they have the best defense, even without the injured Alessandro Nesta who left the game early. That may allow them to go far. The Czechs should be congratulated for doing something that few teams have done this World Cup: follow up their shots by rushing the net in hope of knocking in the rebound. It didn't work, but the work ethic is to be applauded. Although Japan played the best game they could and even got out to an early lead, they never appeared poised to win. Brasil dominated this game (60% possession, 14 shots on goal compared to three). The key to Brasil's offense was not starting Adriano with Ronaldo -- two too similar players who run up the middle to receive all the outside passes, they haven't played well together and coach Carlos Alberto Parreira finally separated them, starting Robinho in place of Adriano. Ronaldo rewarded the coach's decision with a pair of goals. The team looked more disciplined in all areas of the field and, just as importantly, did so for all 90 minutes. Japan never had a chance, while Brasil (I team I thoroughly loathe) demonstrated why soccer is called the beautiful game. Both Australia and Croatia could advance, but with Croatia needing the win and Australia moving on with a mere tie, the stakes along brought potential for a thrilling fixture. The game was marred by a total of eight yellow cards and three red ones, but otherwise it was a pretty good game. The teams are evenly matched although Croatia's defense is less than it could be with the European side surrendering nine corner kicks, a sign of weakness in their own zone. This was all the more puzzling because after going ahead 1-0 in the second minute by virtue of a goal off Darijo Srna's free kick, Croatia might have been expected to focus more on defending. They didn't. Instead, they continued to move forward on Australia, putting the Socceroos under a lot of pressure. The team from Down Under got back into the game at the 38th minute with a penalty kick goal. From that point, the Australians went into defensive mode, needing only the tie to move to the round of 16. But Croatia did not let up, even as their opponents began to control the tempo of the game. About two-thirds through the match, Croatia went ahead again. Australia responded by picking up their offensive game a notch and the tournament's most under-rated striker, Harry Kewell, got an equalizer at the 79th minute. What made this game so exciting was that both teams were hungry and both did what they had to in order to achieve their goals, making the second half an absolutely stellar 50 minutes of soccer; the Australians executed better and were rewarded with the point and advancement. Quotidian "Do all the good you can, In all the ways you can, In all the places you can, At all the times you can, To all the people you can, As long as you can." -- John Wesley, Rules of Conduct The case for incrementalism This article will appear in the July issue of The Interim. It makes the case for an incremental approach to limiting abortion in Canada. Chipping away at abortion Paul Tuns Editor George Weigel, the noted papal biographer, senior fellow at the Washington-based Ethics and Public Policy Centre and board member of Americans United for Life, addressed the Campaign Life Coalition clergy luncheon in May in Toronto and offered some sage advice: incremental victories are indeed pro-life victories and their importance should not be discounted. He offered this truism: “Some progress is better than no progress.” The progress he had in mind encompassed various initiatives, mostly undertaken at the state level (but at the federal level, too) including informed consent and parental notification laws, stricter regulation of abortion facilities and statutes that protect unborn victims of violence and infants who are born alive. Over the past 15 years in the United States, the number of abortions has sharply decreased (by about 17 per cent). During that time, most states have placed various restrictions and regulations on abortion without actually prohibiting it. Many legislators still have the goal of eventually re criminalizing abortion, but along the way, there are numerous laws and regulations that will chip away at the abortion regime. Americans United for Life has published Defending Life 2006: Proven Strategies for a Pro-Life America, a compendium of statutes and case law from all 50 states and the federal system that protect women and unborn babies. The introduction of the volume states “the landmark case” that ostensibly changes the law suddenly, such as Roe v. Wade or, in Canada, R. v. Morgentaler, “often represents not a sudden break with the past, but the culmination of decades of persistent legal work to build precedent through small incremental victories.” The assumption among many U.S. pro-lifers is that change (in a favourable direction) will continue through these incremental steps - changing the hearts and minds of Americans by demonstrating that the abortion licence is not unlimited. After all, it is quite a jump for voters and politicians to move from the status quo that has abortion legal at any time during pregnancy (and sometimes after birth), for any reason and often at taxpayer expense to the concept that abortion should always be outlawed. AUL unapologetically defends its pro-incremental position, stating that initiatives such as partial-birth abortion bans and born-alive infant protection laws, requiring informed consent, are life-affirming. Mailee R. Smith, litigation counsel for Americans United for Life, says that incrementalism is necessary to “dampen the blow of abortion on demand” until full legal protection is accorded to the unborn. Such laws protect both women and children. The challenge in Canada The fact that a private member’s bill to provide some semblance of justice for unborn victims of criminal violence was recently deemed non-votable in Parliament points to a difficult battle ahead for pro-lifers here. Some may ask that when a common-sense, but not strictly pro-life, piece of legislation such as an unborn victims of violence bill can’t get any traction in Parliament, what hope is there for actual restrictions on abortion? Nobody ever said it would be easy, but from a strictly logical point of view, it will certainly be easier to convince legislators and the public that some abortions are wrong, or that some regulations are necessary, before they will be convinced that all abortions are wrong and therefore, the procedure should be re-criminalized. And support for incrementalism does not preclude an outright ban; rather, it opens pro-life groups to strategies that will reduce abortion. Putting aside the question of immediate political feasibility and whether the courts would let stand restrictions and regulations on abortion, what incremental steps make sense and which do not? Aidan Reid, director of the public affairs office of Campaign Life Coalition in Ottawa, told The Interim that it is important “bad things are not enshrined in law.” He provided the example of a gestational approach to limiting abortion as an example of an illicit limit on abortion - a law that states that abortion is permissible up to 20 weeks is not supportable, because it codifies the evil of abortion. It also has the practical problem, as was witnessed in the United Kingdom over the past few decades, that the upper limits become unenforceable as exceptions are made, doctors fudge the estimated age of the fetus and authorities turn a blind eye to abortions committed after the proscribed gestational age of 24 weeks. CLC has applauded Liberal MP Paul Steckle for introducing a private member’s bill, C-338, “An Act to Amend the Criminal Code (procuring a miscarriage after 20 weeks gestation),” on June 21, there are some concerns about the wisdom of advocating such limits on abortion. CLC said in a press release that it encourages MPs “to consider Mr. Steckle’s example by proposing legislation” that would actually restrict abortion. Mary Ellen Douglas, national organizer of Campaign Life Coalition, told The Interim it is significant that of the hundreds examples of incremental pro-life measures noted in Defending Life 2006, “not one is gestational.” That is because of negative experience in other countries of such an approach and the proven track record of other measures. So what is permissible? What are effective restrictions on abortion that affirm the value of life, teach the public that abortion is not an inconsequential procedure and limit the evil of abortion by reducing the number of them committed? Reid said CLC supports incremental legislation that “does not compromise the dignity of the child based on age.” He said it makes no difference whether the child is in his embryonic stages or late in the third trimester, “the law should not discriminate based on age.” He said that permissible restrictions include outlawing certain procedures, protecting survivors of abortion and laws that require abortion-seeking women to notify family members or become informed about the decision they are making. Reid points to the American example of banning partial-birth abortion as both smart policy and smart politics. He said it criminalizes a particularly abhorrent abortion procedure (which is more infanticide than abortion) and the ban has widespread support. Pro-life groups have been able to reach out to citizens who would never consider themselves pro-life to oppose PBA and indeed, a number of typically pro-abortion politicians have voted to ban this particular procedure. Reid said you build on the qualms people have about killing an almost fully born child and teach them that all abortion is barbaric. Because the law is a teacher, both the statutes on the books and debates about abortion affect voters. When an issue is before the House of Commons being discussed by politicians – and inevitably the press and the public – Canadians are forced to think about it. A debate on the floor of the House about abortion would disturb the famous “social peace” described by Jean Chretien, by which he meant that in polite society, such topics are not broached. Many pro-lifers believe that when people are forced to think about the issue in any depth, they are more pro-life. Any restriction on abortion that becomes a political issue would be the wedge for widespread discussion about abortion. And it doesn’t even need to be (originally) successful; American pro-life groups will privately admit that president Bill Clinton’s two vetoes of partial-birth abortion created an atmosphere in which abortion was necessarily and widely discussed. The medical establishment in Canada is less than forthcoming about whether partial-birth abortions are committed in this country. But there are other procedures that should be proscribed. Douglas, said that Ottawa should prohibit dilation and extraction (D&E) abortions. She said the late-term procedure is particularly gruesome: the abortionist dilates the uterus and proceeds to tear the baby apart before pulling the body parts out. Regulating procedures and other restrictions might have to be implemented provincially, because abortion as a medical procedure falls under their jurisdictions. (Only as a Criminal Code matter should it be dealt with at the federal level.) One such measure is the requirement that a decision to have an abortion be accompanied by detailed information - the so-called informed consent or women’s right-to-know laws. In the U.S., there are many such state-level requirements that force an abortion provider to give information on fetal development and fetal pain, the health risks associated with abortion, the availability of ultrasound and abortion alternatives. According to Defending Life 2006, 29 states have some form of informed consent laws in effect. Many states (22) also require waiting periods of 24 hours for women to consider this information carefully and reflect on their decision. Related to the reflection period regulations, some states mandate that minors seeking abortions notify their parents or receive their consent. In all, 35 states have parental involvement laws (all have some form of judicial bypass procedure, as required by the 1992 U.S. Supreme Court Casey decision). A few states have placed strict limits on free-standing abortion facilities, often resulting in many closing down. As Mailee R. Smith, litigation counsel for AUL notes, in the 1960s and 70s, it was popular for pro-abortionists to call for legal abortion precisely so it could be regulated and women have access to “safe and legal abortions.” But the reality, as Smith notes, is that “substandard conditions (are) found in abortion clinics.” Health department officials in Missouri and Arizona have found violations of health protocols in abortuaries that would result in other health facilities being closed. Pro-life legislators have worked with consumer protection groups to ensure that proper hygiene and other safety measures are applied to abortion facilities. Any attempt to regulate abortion facilities or the patient-doctor interaction would probably have to be done at the provincial level in Canada. There are also limits placed on abortion funding in the U.S. The Hyde Amendment, passed by Congress in 1972, prevents federal funding of abortion, except in cases of rape and incest and to protect the life of the mother. Also, 32 states have similar restrictions on abortion funding. Denise Burke, vice president of AUL, calls funding limitations on abortion - whether it be insurance limitations, restricting funding to use to certain facilities or recipients, limiting funding to specific circumstances - a “proven weapon to reduce abortions.” Research by Michael New of the Harvard-MIT Data Centre has found that incremental laws, especially when coupled with limits on abortion funding, are largely responsible for the decrease in the number of abortions in the U.S. in the 1990s. Reid says that abortion funding could be tackled at both the provincial and federal levels. While funding of medical procedures under the Canada Health Act leaves which procedures are covered up to the provinces, Ottawa, under the Chretien and Martin regimes blackmailed the provinces by, cutting back transfer payments to New Brunswick and Nova Scotia, because neither province fully funded abortions in both public and private facilities. Reid said the Harper government should stop the “harassment” of the provinces and end pressure to fund abortions. He added that abortion should be defunded, because there is no evidence it is ever medically necessary, abortion is not medicine and the procedure is not mentioned in the Canada Health Act. He said, “Abortion advocates call it a choice, so therefore, it is not a medical necessity, but a lifestyle decision.” Another federal initiative that would be beneficial is a Born Alive Infant Protection Act, which would make it a crime to kill a baby after it is born, including those infants who survive an abortion. In 1999, Alberta Report magazine discovered that Calgary’s Foothills hospital had left 40 late-term babies to die in 1998 after they were born alive, perhaps because of a skittishness over impinging on abortion “rights.” But Reid says such a law is necessary “as a house-cleaning measure to respect the current law.” The law states that once an unborn baby passes through the birth canal and the umbilical cord is cut, it is a human being as defined by Canadian law; it should, therefore, be accorded legal protection. Reid described those who would oppose a born-alive infant protection law as supporters of infanticide and he thinks most Canadians would come to the same conclusion. Incrementalism vs. compromise The vast majority of Canadians oppose the abortion status quo, but that group is split between pro-lifers and those who want to keep abortion legal, yet would like to see it curbed. Many such “soft pro-choice” supporters would be horrified to see pro-abortion leaders defending clearly barbaric practices such as leaving born infants to die in hospitals. Public opposition to the killing of already-born babies, or the brutal methods used in some abortions such as D&E, could bring great pressure upon our elected officials to change the law, if the party leaders would allow a truly free debate and vote. Where there are no restrictions on abortion, it should be obvious that some restrictions on abortion would be better than none. That is, something of a good thing is better than nothing. The question is how to do that. Clarke D. Forsythe is the director of the AUL Project in Law and Bioethics. In Defending Life 2006, he writes about the objections typically raised to incrementalism. He makes several important points. First, reducing the evil is necessary when eliminating the evil is not possible. (Neoconservative commentator Irving Kristol often says that the perfect can be the enemy of the good and one could reasonably question the morality of forsaking reducing abortions in favour of holding out for an outright prohibition.) Forsythe says “prudential” politics requires taking “account of limitations in a world of constraints and strives to achieve the greatest measure of justice possible under the possible circumstances.” In other words, incrementalism is realistic, abiding the human limits that we encounter. It is not an admission of defeat, but the necessary first steps. Etymologically speaking, incrementalism derives from the Latin “to increase.” Incremental limits on abortion – legitimate ones, at least – increase the restrictions on abortions and therefore, the ease with which women can procure them. There is two important litmus tests on incrementalism. The pro-life measure being proposed should not have the effect of severely hindering future politicians from acting to further restrict abortion or ultimately achieving the more perfect goal of prohibiting abortion if political conditions change. And secondly, it should not compromise core principles, i.e. the recognition that all human life is sacred from the moment of conception. Ronald Reagan used to say that he would compromise on tactics but never on principles. Incrementalism abides this wisdom. Mary Ellen Douglas defines incrementalism as moving towards a larger goal without admitting that abortion is ever morally permissible, whereas compromise essentially accepts the legitimacy of some abortions and thus sacrifices some unborn babies. While it appears to be a semantic game, it is quite practical. Douglas says that the law must foreseeably restrict abortions, that is, it cannot be so loophole-ridden as to be ineffective. Reid says CLC will never compromise on its core beliefs and that it will “fight for life, tooth and nail, for every person.” But, he said, “if we can pass laws that stop some women from getting abortions, that is progress.” However, incrementalism, if pursued as a strategy (that is, as a means) and not an end in itself, is necessary. Every measure that reduces abortion that does not compromise the dignity of a human being is a step forward; it is an increase in the protection accorded to unborn babies. And that, in the absence of complete protection, is a worthy goal. World Cup predictions Czech Republic and Italy tie 1-1 Ghana edges United States 2-1 Brasil beats Japan 2-0 (3-nil if they don't start Ronaldo) Australia beats Croatia 2-1 Wednesday, June 21, 2006
Quotidian "I almost wish. No I don't though. I was going to say I wished we'd never come. But I don't, I don't. Even if we are killed. I'd rather be killed fighting for Narnia than grow old and stupid at home and perhaps go about in a bath-chair and then die in the end just the same." -- Jill in C.S. Lewis's The Last Battle Neat distinction Anderson Cooper was just being interviewed by Jon Stewart and Cooper said it was his job as a journalist to ask questions and get answers, not just responses. I like the distinction and it is one reason why I long ago stopped watching TV news and TV talk shows. There is a script with talking points and every GOP guest and every Democratic guest on the weekend/evening shows sound the same. When was the last time you saw a question answered instead of the party line being spouted. Quickie analysis for World Cup I will watch the two other games later but a quick comment about Netherlands-Argentina and Portugal and Mexico. Portugal looks a lot better than I anticipated -- and they weren't even playing most of their "stars." They are technically gifted, well-coached and have a great blend of veterans and younger talent. They may go further than I -- and many others -- expected. The game against Mexico (chronic underachievers) was a great one. The Netherlands and Argentina game was exciting for its midfield play. The two teams are the best passing teams in the World Cup finals. But the great battle for the midfield did not materialized into many scoring opportunities and the game did not live up to its billing as a classic (to the degree that group fixtures can be classics). Still, it is a marvel to behold the talent on the field. Liberal leadership debate Greg Staples has a fairly thorough run-down on the Liberal leadership debate in Kitchener. I might quibble with some judgments but I'm not in the mood to quibble. Just one comment/explanation for this observation by Greg: "Ken Dryden: Clearly won the night. I am not sure if the room was stacked with previous supporters or if he won them over but he the only candidate who would get consistent spontaneous applause during his answers. He seems to have grown as a public speaker and is less boring than he used to be." I've heard the all the Liberal riding executives in the Kitchener area are solidly behind Dryden. It seems odd that he has near unanimous support in an area that is not geographically "his" for any natural reason, but it appears to have helped. Nothing like getting talked up at the local meetings by those that are important within the riding association. And that seems to have obviously happened. Dryden was, in effect, playing in front of a hometown crowd. Those who cry chicken and run away, live to cry chicken about something else Yeah, not very poetic but a decent enough description of environmentalist whackos. Here's Jay Nordlinger from his Impromptus column: "What happened to acid rain? I mean, it was on the cover of Time magazine about 100 times. It was the concern of the century, the environmental crime of the century. Schoolteachers everywhere told their kiddies that Ronald Reagan and the Republicans were climbing into the sky to create that rotten rain. At a minimum, they were indifferent to it. And then . . . silence. No Time magazine cover. No Democratic talking point. The enviro crowd just moved on to something else (chiefly global warming, a successor to the coming ice age). To repeat: What happened to acid rain? Or rather — to ask this differently — what does the Left say happened to acid rain? Did their crusade take care of the problem — or did they simply get bored, searching out different alarmist pastures?" No one cares that taxpayer money is wasted on phony art I don't typically read the Toronto Sun's Mike Strobel but today's column was brought to my attention by a co-worker. I should have known that with the headline, "Fun with bodily fluids," I was, more likely than not, going to be displeased reading it. Strobel is happy that "there has been so little outcry about the Lactation Station Breast Milk Bar," because it is a sign that "our society is mature enough to see art for what it is." I doubt he is being serious but you never know. The "art" certainly is not. Jess Dobkin, a single lesbian mom, got $9,000 in government grants for an exhibit at the Ontario College of Art and Design to run on July 13 during which she will serve pasteurized breast milk. Strobel notes, "Six flavours. Six donor moms, screened for HIV and such." I am not really surprised by this charlatanism, except that it took so long to actually execute. I hope that the public is not as gullible as the bureaucrats who okayed the grants in finding that this is "art." Cities suck In theory I support the idea of giving municipalities the power to tax because I think governments should have the resources to do what they need to do. Also, as much government as possible should be at the local level (as opposed to provincial or federal level) based on the sound principle of subsidiarity. That's the theory. In practice, after many years of watching city politics, I have come to other conclusions. Here's why, as noted by Adam Taylor at the Canadian Taxpayers Federation blog: "A report by the Federation of Canadian Municipalities (FCM) states that other levels of government are to blame for all municipal problems and that they need more money to deliver services. What a crock. Municipal governments are the worst offenders of abusing tax dollars in the country. Look at the City of Richmond, BC, London, ON and the elephant of fiscal incompetence - the City of Toronto. Junkets all over the world. Out-of-whack pay increases. Totally beholden to special interests. Municipal governments are the least accountable to taxpayers in the country. Property taxes soar that force seniors out of their homes and local governments don't bat an eye. Giving municipal governemnts more taxation powers or more money is like giving a pyromaniac a jerry can and a pack of matches. If municipalities need more money to pave roads and fix bridges they should focus on core priorities, un-chain themselves from the selfish demands of unions and quit demanding/relying on handouts from other levels of government." And I thought municipal governments were most responsive because they are the "closest to the people." Tuesday, June 20, 2006
A theory of winning Mexico is one of the worst teams in World Cup history. They have qualified for the finals (the World Cup tournament) 13 times but have never made it past the third round. Leon Krauze posits a theory at the Goal Post that makes some sense: "Despite Mexico's long soccer history, the number of players who have tried to succeed outside the country is minimal (and by minimal I mean less than fifty). That may be good for the players' pockets, but it spells disaster when it comes to facing top competition. In this World Cup, the Mexican starting line-up included only two players now living in Europe: the awkward Jared Borgetti and the stellar Rafael Marquez. Everyone else plays for teams like Chivas or Atlas. Now let's talk about Argentina. Argentina, on the contrary, has developed into a full blown football-exporting nation. Without having the solace of a prosperous domestic league, Argentine players need to look beyond the country's borders in order to secure their own future. The result is a nomadic lifestyle that breeds not only great fortunes but great talents. Once again, look at the albiceleste's starting line-up: every single one==with the exception of goalkeeper Abondanzieri--plays for the likes of Inter, Manchester United or Chelsea (Abondanzieri, by the way, will probably join his teammates soon enough: he's about to sign a contract with La Coruna). Lionel Messi, after all, has lived a third of his entire life abroad. I don't think it's a coincidence that other exporting nations are playing better and better football. That is the case of the Czech Republic, Portugal, the Netherlands and the Ivory Coast or Ghana. Even some Spanish players now show the scars and skills brought by international competition (does anyone think Fabregas could be what he is today without having gone to England?). I have not mentioned Brazil, the exporting nation par excellence, because the Selecao speaks for itself." British tax burden At the Center for Policy Studies, Charlie Elphicke (pdf) illustrates how British taxes cost more than you think. The tax burden for both individuals and the general economy is getting worse. And it is hindering economic growth, perhaps to the tune of 0.3%-0.5% each year. And still David Cameron appears reticent about across-the-board tax cuts, favouring instead targeted (and gimmicky) tax relief a la Stephen Harper. It might be good politics but it isn't good policy. Justifying IVF on a financial basis is 'dangerous ground' Earlier I noted that a British study says that paying for IVF treatment would reap a significant return on investment for British taxpayers. Tim Worstall says that this is dangerous ground: "Why dangerous ground? Well, because the same figures and calculations can be used to prove that other things would be even more cost effective at boosting the population, if that is indeed what is desired. I’d take issue with the "quickly recovered by taxes from the boosted population" part, as in the very nature of these things it takes 20 odd years before someone is actually a net contributor to the Exchequer. Well, 20 odd years from birth, that is. However, using the very same numbers, if we were to allow immigration (holding all of the other numbers constant) then an immigrant starts paying taxes as soon as they start work. Thus there is not that 20 year wait. It’s also true that an immigrant arrives already educated and is thus an import of human capital (and saves tremendously on the costs of education, a, say, 75,000 pound saving.) So, if we are going to assume that we need more people of working age to save the economy, immigration looks like a much cheaper option. There are those, of course, who would not like this outcome, for whatever reason. So perhaps there are other methods of raising the number of children born to current natives of the country that would cost less than IVF? Well, currently it costs the NHS some 250 quid or so to abort a healthy foetus. As the cost of IVF is 12,931 per conceived live birth it would seem that restricting or eliminating abortion would be a saving of 13,181 per live birth. Here again there may be those who dislike or disagree with that idea for other reasons but that’s the problem, the dangerous ground, for those who use economic arguments in this manner. IVF can obviously be justified on the basis that those who are childless and would like not to be can be helped by our current level of medical skill and knowledge (please note, can be justified, not is justified) and that perhaps this is a way in which we are happy to see some of the wealth of the nation spent. But as soon as the value to the taxpayer is brought into it, we open up that can of worms which is all of the other methods of boosting the population which might have better value for said taxpayer." Yankees beat Phillies It has been a bad week for the New York Yankees, losing four games in a row at one stretch. Thankfully, they are facing the scrub-level pitching of the Philadelphia Phillies and after losing last night, they fought back this evening and won 9-7. Bernie Williams went five for five, raising his batting average 17 points to 294. He still has a horrible on-base percentage for an everyday designated hitter/outfielder, but when a player has a perfect night, he has won the right to be criticism free for a few days. Even if he still doesn't belong in a major league uniform. UN is useless, Part 746,289 The Associated Press reports: "Sudan's president vowed Tuesday to never allow U.N. peacekeepers into Darfur and said he would lead the 'resistance' against any foreign force, his strongest rejection yet of the United Nations plan for halting violence in the war-torn region." And the UN's reaction? Well, nothing so far but probably it will do what it always does: issue a carefully worded statement that Secretary General Kofi Annan is "concerned" about the "situation" in "Sudan" but with no specific criticism of anyone or any government or suggestions to deal with the problem. Last month the UN gave Khartoum a one-week deadline to accept peacekeepers as part of peace agreement but when the deadline was obviously going to be missed, the UN extended the deadline(indefinitely). Interestingly, today is the UN's World Refugee Day. As part of his broadcast of "Hope" message, Annan said: "Let this Day serve as a reminder of our responsibility to help keep hope alive among those who need it most – the millions of refugees and displaced who are still far from home." Unless you are Sudanese and driven from your homes in Darfur. Then you are screwed. World Cup prediction Angola ties Iran 1-1 Portugal beats Mexico 2-1 Argentina ties the Netherlands 2-2 Ivory Coast edges Serbia-Montenegro 2-1 Does Toronto really want another round of Miller Time Miller Watch says that Jane Pitfield and her pitiful team need "to get into gear." The problem is that even people sympathetic to the right-leaning city councilor find her a lightweight. I hear that most of the anti-Miller coalition of moderate and business Liberals, law-and-order types and whatever passes as conservative at the city level, are desperately hoping that former Liberal MP Dennis Mills is fibbing when he says he is not going to run for mayor. Mills, a long-time advocate of the flat tax at the federal level, has a penchant for cameras and new ideas but that is probably what is needed for a candidate to capture the imagination of voters if one hopes to defeat the incumbent, David Miller. That and a get-tough-on-crime/rediscovering personal responsibility platform to win over voters in North York and Etobicoke. Pitfield is only going through the motions but running for mayor requires more than throwing the odd good idea out there; it takes a competent team, a carefully articulated and consistent message and the right mix of ideas to address that city's problems. So far we haven't seen any of that from the mayoral candidate. Protecting incumbents The Canadian Press reports that the Conservative Party has yet to decide whether sitting MPs should be protected from challenges to their nominations. Both sides within the Tories are duly quoted (perhaps with the intent of painting a party that is not united), with some saying that "democracy" requires incumbents fight for their nominations and others saying that having to worry about riding politics distracts MPs from doing their job representing their constituents. While I don't fetishize democracy and I do see the valid arguments of those who favour protecting incumbents, I don't like incumbent protection. I dislike even more when people make a political issue out of it. The Liberals will protect incumbents for the next election for the second election in a row. The NDP and Bloc policy is to always allow nomination battles. The Tories, like the Liberals, make up their mind depending on circumstances; they protected incumbents before the last election but strongly signalled that they would not do so again. How to fix this? A Conservative strategist once explained to me the ideal way to force incumbents to face nomination fights and protect parties from political criticism for it was to redraw the electoral map every election. That way it would ensure that a riding has no (exact) incumbent and in some cases incumbents would have to face one another for the party's nomination. It would be a bit cumbersome but it ensures that all parties would require nominations for candidates for every election. Kemp on soccer Former quarterback and GOP vice presidentail candidate Jack Kemp wrote a column apologizing for two decades of criticizing soccer as socialist. Fine, apology accepted. (To head off more emails that I am a fan of a liberal or socialist sport, I offer only this defense: nothing as beautiful as soccer could be socialist.) Anyway, Kemp says that soccer is inferior to American football because it lacks a QB. And if it is inferior, it must therefore be socialist, I guess is Kemp's argument. Anyway, here's Kemp: "... the trouble with soccer is that it doesn’t have a quarterback (ha!). I’ve always likened football to entrepreneurial capitalism, because the quarterback is the risk taker who organizes the factors of production, (the offense) in such a way as to score touchdowns, (profits) and thus win games, (increase profits) and hopefully make windfall profits, (with a championship)." Perhaps one way to look at the QB is as an entrepreneur. Another is as central planner, directing the rest of the team. An American friend said to me in 1996 something along these lines: "I can't vote for Bob Dole and Jack Kemp because Kemp's success in his first career was based on his ability to direct others to do what he wanted." Whereas the ingenuity and skills of individual players in soccer will determine a team's success, the football team requires wise decisions by one person, one central planner. The QB fails and the whole team tanks (kind of like the economy when a central banker is inept or the government interferes too much). But a great soccer team, like a great nation, can overcome the shortcomings of its failed leader because the role of one individual over the entire enterprise is limited. That's smart, not socialist. Wisdom of the crowds and all that, not being left to the whims of one power. Perhaps the former Buffalo Bills QB took one too many tackles to the head to realize this. A whole new meaning to lay back and think of England Lay back on the doctor's table, that is. The Guardian reports: "Making fertility treatment freely available to all would boost Britain's population and help stave off the looming pensions crisis, scientists said yesterday." That is the finding following a cost-benefit analysis: "They found that if the government invested in IVF and offered three cycles of fertility treatment on the NHS, the country would increase its population by 10,000 within two to three years. Currently only a quarter of IVF treatment is conducted by the NHS. Their calculations showed that once the extra cost is taken into account, every person born through IVF would on average contribute £147,138 to the economy, compared with £160,069 generated over the lifetime of a person conceived naturally. 'If a government invests in IVF treatment, essentially by paying for that treatment, and a baby results, the government starts earning money back two years later than if the baby was conceived naturally,' said Professor Bill Ledger, head of reproductive medicine at Sheffield University. The calculations are the first attempt to assess the value of children born through IVF to the British economy. The researchers worked on the basis of the child living to the average male age of 78, and the cost of IVF being £12,931 per conceived live birth." Such computations are so much more exciting than a bottle of wine, romantic music and dimmed lights or a blanket in front of the fire place. Then again, they are Brits. Republicans responsible for hurricanes Writing in the Los Angeles Times, screenwriter Mike Campbell tackles with great aplumb the notion that the Republican adminisration is responsible for the hurricanes expected this season. Sample: "There must be something in the Constitution preventing either political party from causing hurricanes. Let me check. I'll be right back…. No, nothing in the Constitution, which is surprising because treason and impeachment and all sorts of other awful things are covered. Everything except hurricanes. Wait just a minute! What am I thinking? They didn't have hurricanes back then! How could they? There weren't any power plants or gas guzzlers. How embarrassing for me." Saving Darfur Despite what seems like progress in the past month, the Los Angeles Times notices that the proclamations that the international community is ready to do something and that Congress has funded a thus far non-operational peacekeeping mission amount to nothing more than the "latest in a series of empty gestures." It is too bad that empty gestures don't save lives because if they did, the genocide would have ended long ago; instead, it continues unabated. The paper quite rightly calls upon President George W. Bush to personally take up the issue with Russia and Red China to end the diplomatic impasse that is preventing real actions from taking place. The U.S., the paper notes, has taken a greater interest in Darfur than the rest of the "international community" but so far that hasn't meant a whole lot. Sarkozy notices problem but offers 'solution' that might be worse LifeSiteNews.com refers to this story about Nicolas Sarkozy's warning that the French Republic needs a little religion. In a recent book (The Republic, the Religions, and Hope), Sarkozy, a candidate for French president next year, says that the state's Christophobia and ardent secularism serves neither society nor government well. He says that for too long the state has been "indifferent" to religion and in typical European fashion he calls for a corrective of state assistance for and closer co-operation with the churches. But Sarkozy is wrong in that the state is not "indifferent" to religion but outright hostile to it. Government is a jealous creature that cannot brook competing authorities. What France and other liberal democracies need is not formal cooperation between state and church (some might call it collusion) but an end to the former's harassment of the latter. Allow churches to work with the poor, educate students and speak out on moral issues without interference. That would guarantee its independence, a necessary commodity for churches that would threatened if they were to become partners with government. Monday, June 19, 2006
Terrorism stories from around the world Three from the Daily Telegraph: One: "Britain's borders are too poorly policed to act as a serious deterrent to terrorists, an independent watchdog reported yesterday." Two: After a weekend of violence that claimed 51 lives, "The government of Sri Lanka appealed to Tamil Tiger rebels yesterday to pull back from the brink of war and re-engage in serious peace negotiations." Three: Madrid capitulates as, "Spain's socialist prime minister will announce proposals for talks with the Basque separatist group Eta within days, reports said yesterday." Quotidian "David was one of those shy and sensitive people who shrink from argument." -- Honore de Balzac, Lost Illusions Liberals and race Peter Schramm at No Left Turns: "This column by Clarence Page, attempting to talk about the GOP and race, shows how mired in a confused past liberals are on this issue. The political world has gone way beyond this sophomoric level of discussion; Joe Fabrici down the street knows more about how to think about race and politics than this self-proclaimed liberal deep thinker: the issue has nothing to do with whether the government is the enemy or not." Which led me to wonder: when was the last time a liberal had anything worthwhile to say about race? Offside on ref bashing Now that I've read a fair bit of commentary on the Italian-American game in which the referee brandished three red cards, as well as having re-watched the game for a third time, I rescind my criticism of referee Jorge Larrionda. He did as well as anyone could: both teams had a lot to prove, the Americans were over-compensating in their physical play following criticism that they were wimps against the Czech Republic and the ref always has a difficult job. (I stand by my criticism of the officials in general that there are too few calls for high elbows and shirt-tugging and too many calls for delay of game, talking to the officials and whatever else players are being carded for other than their physical play.) Still, many others have been critical of Larrionda, charging him with too many calls that directly affected the game (negatively). But he was, in fact, quite lenient, erring on the side of letting the players play. According to Paul Gardner of the New York Sun: "In the first half the Americans committed 18 fouls to the Italians' seven. Now, 18 is a very large number for one team in only 45 minutes. Oguchi Onyewu had five of those fouls, including four crude physical tackles on the giant Italian forward Luca Toni. That total ought to have been enough to earn him a yellow card for persistent fouling, but Larrionda was lenient here." But that did not stop the shameful display of sore-losership by the Americans. They put more energy in whining after the game than they did in scoring during the game. They did not admit any error in their physical play, sulked about the officiating and are placing blame elsewhere when, as Gardner notes, their game has serious shortcomings. Gardner points out that in their first two games, the Americans have exactly one shot on goal (as distinct from shots). If the United States side does not fix their offensive game, they will have no one to blame but themselves for their lousy World Cup. (And they will maintain theis dismal record of having never won a World Cup game in Europe.) Anyone interested in the issue of officiating should read Gabriele Marcotti's blog entry at SI.com. A taste of Marcotti: "Brandishing the Laws of the Game and screaming bloody murder, as a portion of the U.S. press has done, lies somewhere between the futile and the idiotic. The World Cup isn't run based on the Laws of the Game, it's run based on FIFA's interpretation of the Laws of the Game, which is an entirely different matter altogether." As Alex Massie says at the Goal Post: "... under the terms of that interpretation, the referee was quite right to dismiss Mastroeni and Pope. He would, as FIFA sees it, have been neglecting his duties had he not sent the Americans off." Larrionda made mistakes as all referees have, but the red cards were not among them. World Cup prediction Germany beats Ecuador 3-1 Costa Rica ties Poland 1-1 Paraguay edges Trinidad and Tobago 2-1 England ties Sweden 1-1 Sunday, June 18, 2006
Quotidian "Nothing in education is so astonishing as the amount of ignorance it accumulates in the form of inert facts." -- Henry Adams, The Education of Henry Adams World Cup predictions Switzerland beats Togo 2-0 Ukraine beats Saudi Arabia 1-0 Spain slaughters Tunisia 4-0 The days in soccer Yesterday: some pretty exciting soccer. Today: ditto. A quick comment about a few of the games. The game between Italy and the U.S. was marred by the officiating. As Eric Wynalda said on the ABC broadcast post-game show, "Players win games, coaches lose them, referees ruin them." Ideally, the referee should not be noticed and certainly should not be decisive. Of course, with three red cards, two being quite dubious (anti-American conspiracy?), the referee's presence was felt. That said, the two teams played technically excellent soccer save for Cristian ZaccardoÂ?s fluke own goal. The Americans played lively soccer for all 90 minutes even though they were two men down for most of the second half. If the American played like this last week, they would never have lost three-nil to the Czech Republic. The game ended up being the second most exciting game this World Cup finals thus far (following Friday's Ivory Coast-Netherlands match), but that doesn't not excuse the lousy officiating. Ghana beats the Czech Republic 2-0. With their win -- the first by an African side this World Cup -- Ghana remains in a four-team race for a Round of 16 berth. The U.S. are highly improbable to move on -- they must beat Ghana and Italy must beat the Czech Republic -- but still, every team remains hopeful for their matches on Thursday. Ghana could have easily scored another couple of goals but they repeatedly got caught by the Czech Republic's offside trap. That they repeatedly did so is a sign of some sort of problem -- coaching, unawareness on the field, lack of discipline, excitement, cluelessness about the rules, who knows? -- that often seem to plague teams from soccer's developing world. Nevertheless, the anticipation of another goal, led to an incredible amount of excitement. One of Czech's problems was that first game hero, Tomas Rosicky (2 goals against the US) looked quite mediocre. On the plus side, superb goaltending by Petr Cech, probably the best goaltender in the world, kept the game close. He made a few outstanding saves. After the Ivory Coast-Netherlands and Italy-US matchups, this was probably the most exciting match of the World Cup finals. Brasil beat Australia 2-0 but the score does not reflect the game that Australia played. While Brasil is obviously a much more talented team, the Australians were able to control the tempo of the game for small periods of time, played a tough defense that did not allow the South American side many great chances in the first 60 minutes and penetrated Brasil's third of the pitch to create a few scary moments for Brazilian goaltender Dida, who looked less than pleased with his defense on several occasions. Australia's Dutch coach Guus Hiddink put on an additional striker early in the second half after going down 1-0 demonstrating a determination to draw or possibly win the game, not just lose by a close score. It all made for a wonderful match but it exposed two problems that Brasil needs to recognize. First, as good as Ronaldo and Adriano are individually, they do not work well together. It would be better to bring Ronaldo on as a late replacement and let Robinho play the first 60 minutes. This might allow Brasil to rack up a few goals earlier in the game. Second, Brasil's defense is not nearly as good as 1) as its offense or 2) as a squad as its individual members would indicate. After all, Cafu (AC Milan), Roberto Carlos (Read Madrid) and Lucio (Bayern Munich) are all great defenders and Juan (Bayer Leverkusen) is a pretty good one. France and South Korea was fairly sloppy and uneventful. Portugal and Iran was nothing to get excited about. Thefall-backk style of defence (no opposition in the midfield, stop the attack in their own zone) of Croatia prevented Japan's more dynamic scoring side from putting the ball in the net but it also prevented much entertainment. Still, overall, this weekend saw some really great soccer. British Labour party suffers from Liberal Party of Canada Syndrome Privately I have had a number of Liberal MPs tell me that they believe their party is a decade away from winning another election. If nothing changes -- and that seldom happens -- that might be true (see earlier post on Tom Brokaw and the UFO theory of politics). But the point remains that the Liberals feel they have lost the trust of Canadian voters and thus winning the next election seem highly unlikely. The Guardian reports that on the other side of the pond, Michael Wills, a close confidante of Gordon Brown, is warning the chancellor that without radical change, the Labour Party will lose the next election (and the next one and the next after that). Mills says, "The trouble with the current approach is that we will go out of power and we will go out of power for 15 years." Of course, Mills has an agenda. His warning was declared at the left-wing Compass group and he is disillusioned with Blairite Third Way nostrums. He may be guilty of confusing his disillusionment with that of the voters. All politics is extremely local David Cameron's green plans are in trouble. The Sunday Telegraph reports that the British Conservative leader's neighbours are unhappy with his plan to put a wind turnbine on his property. The paper reports: "In an application in Mrs Cameron's name, the family has asked permission from Kensington and Chelsea council to install the turbine and three solar panels on the roof. But from the beginning the plan has been dogged by criticism, with some accusing Mr Cameron of blighting the area with 'architectural acne'." But part of the criticism is silly. One neighbour whined: "These turbines cost £2,000. It's irritating that it costs so much to show your green credentials. I've young twins and a husband with cancer. Do you think I've got time to be green?" Oh, just wait; no doubt that "the new brand of caring Conservatism" Cameron hopes to be elected on will provide a government payout to those who want to show their green credentials. Mr. Cameron can't wait, though, because he believes he must demonstrate those credentials now. A cry of free Iran from an unlikely source The Daily Telegraph reports: "The grandson of Ayatollah Khomeini, the inspiration of Iran's 1979 Islamic Revolution, has broken a three-year silence to back the United States military to overthrow the country's clerical regime. Hossein Khomeini's call is all the more startling as he made it from Qom, the spiritual home of Iran's Shia strand of Islam, during an interview to mark the 17th anniversary of the ayatollah's death." Better yet, the exact words of Hossein Khomeini: "My grandfather's revolution has devoured its children and has strayed from its course ... I lived through the revolution and it called for freedom and democracy - but it has persecuted its leaders." And: "Iran will gain real power if freedom and democracy develop there ... Strength will not be obtained through weapons and the bomb." Star of David hangs over Ghana victory After the second goal in yesterday's 2-1 victory over the Czech Republic at the hands (or feet) of Ghana, an African player pulled an Israeli flag from his sock. The Goal Post's Franklin Foer quotes Ha'aretz to explain: "Ghanaian soccer player John Pentsil celebrated the goals scored by his teammates against the Czech Republic at the World Cup on Saturday by waving the Israeli flag at the stadium in Cologne... Pentsil, who plays for Hapoel Tel Aviv, is one of three Ghana international squad members who play for Israeli soccer teams. He apparently kept the flag tucked away into his sock during the match. In the past, Pentsil has displayed both the Ghanaian and Israeli flags during soccer matches, most recently after Hapoel TA won the Israeli Cup." Odd but appreciated punditry Writing about the 2008 presidential election in the Washington Post, Tom Brokaw admits that he knows nothing: "... if we're to believe Dick Cheney and Al Gore about their intentions, 2008 will be the first presidential election since 1952 in which an incumbent president or a sitting or recently retired vice president is not a candidate -- which opens the field even more. Next, voters in poll after poll are expressing real concern on a wide range of big issues -- terrorism, the war in Iraq, gas prices, the environment, health care and the economy. That level of anxiety and uncertainty becomes a kind of collective cry for help that transcends party, economic and geographical lines. I've heard it in small gatherings and large, in red states and blue, from old-line Republicans to populist Democrats, from Main Street merchants to fishing guides, from academicians to ranchers. 'Who's gonna be our next president?' My answer is always the same. 'I don't know -- it's too early too tell'." Of course, he's right. But how often do newspapers give space to journalists, even former evening news anchors, to tell the world that "don't know." But Brokaw admits this to put forth the sensible but all-too-often forgotten UFO theory of politics: "UFO -- the unforeseen will occur." Brokaw outlines a half dozen things that might happen from oil shock to the bursting of the housing bubble, from Iran getting nukes to Pakistan falling to Islamic fundamentalists from the war in Iraq getting much worse to the war getting much better. Or nothing happens, which, too, will affect the election. There is a lot of interest in the 2008 presidential election already and it is early but none of the pundits' crystal balls can foresee not merely the candidates but the issues that will change -- and the changing issues will change the candidates themselves -- over the next two years. Brokaw's admitted ignorance is most welcome. Democrats: more anti-American (power) than anti-Bush Mark Steyn in the Chicago Sun-Times: "It's often said that in our bitter fractious partisan politics much of the Democratic base's anger boils down to sheer loathing of Bush. If he were gone, if it were a Clinton or Gore waging war in Iraq, the Dems would be cool with it. I think not. Their fury with Lieberman suggests a corrosion that goes far deeper than mere Bush Derangement Syndrome. The Democrats may be prepared to go along with some Clintonian pseudo-warmongering -- the desultory lobbing of a few cruise missiles at Slobodan or that Sudanese aspirin factory -- but, when it comes to the projection of hard power in the national interest, the left cannot get past Vietnam. Indeed, the reaction to Peter Beinart's ringing call for a reassertion of 'liberal internationalism' -- ringing in the sense that nobody's picking up -- suggests that even his quaintly dated Eurocentric Sept. 10 ineffectually respectable multilateralism has few takers among today's left." Steyn is onto something here. For many, calling the Democrats anti-Bush was a convenient but imprecise shorthand. Sure, they are anti-Bush and are so for many reasons. But more importantly, the Democrats (or as Steyn calls them, Defeaticrats) are, at best, hesitant about projecting American power abroad, but, are probably, more accurately hostile to exercising American power abroad. This has important political repercussions. The average American voter cares little about whether Bush lied his way into Iraq or what international law may say about the conflict and even less about what the UN's role is; what is important to the average American is whether the United States is winning or not. If Republicans can make the case that the effect a Democratic foreign policy is surrender or if a Democratic Congress will deny President Bush the tools to properly prosecute the war, I think that their (the Dems) chances of winning in November are very low. This, ultimately, is why I have stated the GOP has a 50% chance of maintaining the House of Representatives in the midterm elections and a 50% chance of maintaining the Senate -- the Democrats do not have a serious alternative to the (admittedly miserable and failing) plan of the administration. A downside of Toronto's multiculturalism The Toronto Sun celebrates the city's diversity by noting the many different flags that one can see while driving around Toronto: "Cars throughout the GTA are waving the flags of their native lands represented at the international soccer championship. A patchwork of divided loyalties, neighbourhoods are suddenly defined by the colours flapping proudly from their cars -- Portugal along Dundas St. W., Italy on College St., Poland on Roncesvalles, Iran on Yonge St. north of Hwy. 7 -- and on it goes in the new civic pastime of name that flag." David Miller thinks its all very, very wonderful: "We're unique in that way and I'm very proud of it ... That's such a wonderful thing about our city." But I don't hear him commenting on the downside of this demonstration of dual-loyalties. I drove about 20 km last night along Yonge Street, the 401, 427 and Dundas Street and must have seen nearly 20 flags and just a few less of the little white plastic things that formerly attached the flag to a car on the road. Considering that Toronto's unperfect tiny mayor has a litter fetish, don't you think he should speak up about the trashing of our streets? World Cup predictions I know it is cheesy to put up the predictions for one game that is finished and one that is half-way through, but (honestly) here is what they were: Croatia edges Japan 1-0 Brasil beats Australia 3-1 France beats South Korea 3-0 You can figure out that I was telling the truth by my group table prediction made on June 13. Saturday, June 17, 2006
Quotidian On the first Feminian Sandstones we were promised the Fuller Life (Which started by loving our neighbour and ended by loving his wife) Till our women had no more children and the men lost reason and faith, And the Gods of the Copybook Headings said: 'The Wages of Sin is Death'." -- Rudyard Kipling, The Gods of the Copybook Headings Friday, June 16, 2006
Quotidian "If a man's private health is a public concern, then his most private acts are more public than his most public acts." -- G.K. Chesterton, Eugenics and Other Evils World Cup predictions Portugal beats Iran 3-0 Czech Republic beats Ghana 3-0 Italy beats United States 2-0 World Cup today Pretty interesting day in soccer. Argentina scores six against the usually impenetrable defenses of Serbia-Montenegro. The Netherlands and Ivory Coast play one of the most exciting contests that I've ever seen and the Dutch side win 2-1 to advance (with Argentina) to the Round of 16. Mexico and Angola have dreadfully dull game but that is what happens when one side (Angola) effectively plays a nine-man defense. Overall, a B+ day on entertainment value with a breakdown as follows: Argentina's win, A- (any game in which one side scores six times is entertaining); Netherland's nail-biter with Ivory Coast, A+ (Dutch side ruled the first half and led 2-1 at the break but Ivory Coast put incredible pressure on the Netherlands); Mexico and Angola's nil-nil tie, C- with a slight inflation in the grade due to the fact that the woefully inferior African side was fighting tooth and nail for a point for the last 45 minutes and the anticipation of Mexico only getting one point in a game that should have been an easy win. At war with Islamism David Mader, responding to a comment from "Neil" on his blog, makes the somewhat useful distinction between Islamism and Islam. But there is something more important at work here. Neil says to Mader, "Do you agree that the terrorists are extremely small pockets of fundamentalists?" Most people use this nice little line that the extremists comprise a small proportion of the Muslim population -- "99.9% of Muslims would never engage in terrorist activities" and all that. But is such a statement true and is that all there is to say about Islam and terrorism? I think there is a difference, on the one hand, between the fanatic who blows himself up to kill a dozen infidels or the group of fanatics who turn an airplane into a weapon of mass destruction to murder 3000 of us and, on the other, those who sympathize with the terrorist murderers, who represent a much larger proportion of the population although how large no one can be exactly sure. I vaguely recall that polling of Muslims after 9/11 found that among Muslims outside the United States, in every country a majority of them had some sympathy for the September 11 terrorist attacks upon the United States or thought that the country had it coming. Then and since 9/11, condemnations by "Muslim leaders" of terrorist incidents by are almost combined with criticism of American foreign policy, the effect being to excuse (to a degree) the terrorist attack. My guess is that one in five Muslims are sympathetic to Islamism (or its best known brand name, al-Qaeda). I hope I am wrong but I wouldn't be surprised to find that I if am indeed wrong it is because I erred on the low end. We (the West) must understand that Islam is a terribly violent religion and that it is the so-called 'moderates' that are probably distorting the Koran; after all, Allah's 'final messenger' and the founding prophet of Islam (the "Big Mo") went around beheading people. This is a bit of crude distillation of Muslim history but not an inaccurate one. As one expert on Islam wrote to me a few years back in reaction to the claim by some that we must fight the root causes of terrorism (poverty, American imperialism, etc&), "the root cause of Islamic terror is Islam." Islamism nicely describes (and Mader is not original on this, merely a timely springboard for my current thoughts), not the perversion of Islam but its politicization. An all too predictable politicization and one that we must face. We have seen the enemy and it is Muslim. Baseball races Three observations. 1) Three-way race for first in the American League East and just one game separates the New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox and Toronto Blue Jays. 2) Two games separate all five teams in the National League West. 3) In the National League East, the New York Mets are 9.5 games ahead of the Philadelphia Phillies. That is more than the combined games ahead of the other five division leaders. It is hardly any surprise, then, that according to Baseball Prospectus, the Mets have a 97.6% chance of making the post-season (and a 98.4% chance according to the PECOTA-adjusted odds.) Winning the war against jihadists The AP reported yesterday that since the killing of terrorist mastermind Abu Musab al-Zarqawi last week, the U.S. military and Iraqi security forces have carried out 452 raids carried resulting in the deaths of 104 terrorists and arrest of 759 others. They netted 28 "significant arms caches" and 143 raids were carried out by Iraqi forces without American assistance. Baby steps in the War on Terror are good. Many, many baby steps are better. Yesterday's games A good but not great day of soccer. It is shameful to see both Sweden and England dominate their opponents in possession and shots and yet not score a goal until the final minutes. While those who cheer for underdogs no doubt liked the games because of the distinct possibility of upsets (if you count ties as upsets), there is something embarrassing and tiring in watching elite teams struggle with their finishes andjust miss the net or ping it off a crossbar or get an official shot but one that the goaltender easily saves. That said, there is something thrilling in having Trinidad and Tobago (against England) or Paraguay (against Sweden) in the game until the finals minutes. In neither game did the victor score any earlier than the 83rd minute. Sweden scored at the 89th minute. Ecuador handily beat Costa Rica, is in first in their Group (ahead of Germany on goal differential) and played thrilling soccer til the end. They scored in the final ten minutes when, while ahead by two, they stepped up the pressure and put the ball in the back of the net. The day's excitement rates a B, but because of the anticipation of an upset not the quality of the games (in two of the three cases). World Cup predictions Argentina beats Serbia-Montenegro 1-0 Netherlands edges Ivory Coast 2-1 Mexico beats Angola 2-0 Thursday, June 15, 2006
A really, really stupid idea Adrienne Batra at the CTF blog notes: "Manitoba has a new slogan and logo that will no doubt bring back the thousands of people who have left and put a stop to all of those that plan on leaving. If you believe any of that, I have a bridge to sell you! The branding Manitoba campaign was launched yesterday and the best slogan the New York ad firm Interbrand could come up with was 'Spirited Energy.' In total, the entire re-branding exercise cost $2.1 million, only $500,000 of that coming from the private sector." Spirited Energy? Click here to see the Spirited Energy launch video and see if it was worth $2.1 million. Or whether it really is Spirited Energy. Does this replace the province's motto Gloriosus et Liber (Glorious and free)? The re-branding exercise seems a little ambitious to me. As this part of the government's Spirited Energy website says: "Imagine this vision of Manitoba's future... * The new Manitoba image has attracted industry, new investment and intellectual capital; economic development and employment are at an all-time high. * The excitement about Manitoba is crossing over into other areas as well - travel and tourism, exports and positive media are also at unprecedented levels. * Residents are confident that Manitoba is the best place for them to achieve their potential; they can't imagine finding better opportunities outside the Province. * There has been a tremendous influx of highly skilled workers choosing Manitoba as the ultimate place to live and work. * People are coming to Manitoba, bringing their skills and talents with them. They are excited and proud to be in Manitoba." This stuff is Gerard Kennedy dumb. World Cup comment Aleksandar Hemon at TNR's Goal Post says this of the German squad: "I cannot begin to count the games I have seen in which Germany won simply because they refused to entertain the possibility of losing. It hurts to think about it, though I cannot help but admire their (stereotypical) attitude." If I were to list my least favourite soccer players of all time, half would be Germans. I detest their soccer team and I don't really know why but I share Hemon's admiration for their dogged determination, not to mention their incredible ball-handling skills. Also at Goal Post, Richard Brown has his first week dream team: KINGSTON (GHANA) HEINZE (ARGENTINA) NESTA (ITALY) PUYOL (SPAIN) CANNAVARO (ITALY) PIRLO (ITALY) KAKA (BRAZIL) NEDVED (CZECH) ROSICKY (CZECH) ROBBEN (HOLLAND) VILLA (SPAIN) RONALDINHO (BRAZIL) SUBS: RIQUELME (ARGENTINA) FIGO (PORTUGAL) MARQUEZ (MEXICO) GERRARD (ENGLAND) JOHN TERRY (ENGLAND) DROGBA (IVORY COAST) XABI ALONSO (SPAIN) TORRES (SPAIN) Incredibly, this is almost the exact list I would have made. The only changes are two: based on his performance against Sweden, Trinidad and Tobago goaltender Shaka Hislop (six saves officially, I counted seven) deserves to be on the first week dream team. Is he the best goalie in the World Cup finals? No. Was he the best goalie last week? A very good case can be made for it. I would also add Dutch defender Giovanni van Bronckhorst to, at least, the sub list, although likely I would replace Puyol, who would still earn a spot on the bench. As for the subs, I wouldn't include Gerrard as a sub based on the play in the first game, although his team-mate David Beckham deserved a spot. I'm not a Beckham fan, I think he is vastly over-rated but he played a (unusually) stellar game in England's one-nil victory last week against Paraguay. Gerrard is the superior player but not based on play from the first week of action. People are not only willing to listen to Bill Clinton, but pay for it too The AP reports that former President Bill Clinton made almost $7.5 million in speaking fees last year, and was known to make $350,000 for a single appearance. Canadians contributed to this in a big way, as one time he "earned a staggering $650,000 for just two appearances in two days before major gatherings in Canada." If you're headed to Arizona, you want to reconsider your travel plans According to Reuters, the Proctor & Gamble Co. has determined that Phoenix is the "sweatiest" city in the United States while Miami, Florida, is the most uncomfortable "due to its mix of humidity and heat." Here is the important (and surprising) detail: "The latest survey found that the average Phoenix resident produced 26 ounces (0.77 litre) of sweat per hour [walking] during a typical summer day last year when the desert city's high temperature averaged 93.3 F (34 C)." Twenty-six ounces! Add up all that sweat and all those people and you get ... disgusting: "It means that in under three hours, Phoenix residents collectively produced enough sweat to fill an Olympic-sized swimming pool." Are the Blue Jays for real? Some facts gleaned from a recent column by Dayn Perry in the June 14 New York Sun regarding the Toronto Blue Jays and how they are in the race for the American League East division title. 1) According to the Baseball Prospectus "First Order Standings" measurement (what a team's record should be taking into account their runs scored and run allowed, and also taking into account the quality of their opponents, the New York Yankees would be in first, followed two games back by the Jays and Boston Red Sox a game behind them. 2) The Blue Jays are winning on their offense: 3rd in the AL in runs scored, 1st in the AL in slugging percentage, home runs, doubles and total bases. The Rogers Center is a hitter's park but does not skew the numbers too much. 3) Players like Troy Glaus, Vernon Wells, Shea Hillebrand and Lyle Overbay are all expected to maintain their impressive performances but Alex Rios is predicted to see a large drop in production; indeed, his batting average has fallen nearly 20 points in the past month, albeit it still stands at 341. So they will probably continue to score runs. 4) The Jays are eighth in runs allowed in the AL and seventh in ERA (4.88). Their bullpen is only slightly worse than the starting pitching (4.90 ERA) but if you take out B.J. Ryan it balloons to 5.64. That is, the bullpen is as bad as everyone thinks it is. 5) The return of A.J. Burnett -- the only off-season acquisition that is not making J.P. Ricciardi look like a genius -- is eagerly anticipated but whether it will make a big difference is a big question mark. If he performs close to expectations, his addition to the starting rotation should save as many runs as the team will lose in the "lost" production of Rios as his numbers regress slightly. 6) Roy Halladay must remain healthy. That is not a safe bet. 7) The Jays have played a more difficult schedule than the Boston Red Sox, with an average opponent's winning percentage of 511. That means that Jays are more likely to be facing more sub-500 teams over the rest of the schedule. 8) I said that the biggest weakness the team had going into the season was infield defense: the loss of the best defensive second baseman (Orlando Hudson) on a team that gave up the second most groundballs up the middle combined with an untested 2B (Aaron Hill) and mediocre shortstop (Russ Adams) and below average ranges of at the corners, would mean the Jays would give up more runs than a true contender would. However, according to the Baseball Prospectus measurement Defensive Effeciency, the Jays are (surprisingly) third in the AL. It will be important to maintain this over the next 100 games, especially once Burnett returns. 9) The biggest Jays weakness is their bullpen but bullpen help is probably the easiest to acquire mid-season. Ricciardi needs to acquire useful middle relievers by the July 31 trading deadline but preferably sooner. The Jays have roster players and prospects to trade to acquire such talent and salary room although bullpen help need not be expensive. 10) The Red Sox and Yankees are old and broken. While the Red Sox often make trades to fix their problems (at least under Theo Epstein), the New York Yankees sit back and wait for things to work themselves out. But with two-thirds of their outfield on the DL until at least September, Alex Rodriguez struggling to overcome a flu, Jorge Posada fighting off injuries and Derek Jeter and Johnny Damon playing at less than 100%, the Yankees cannot afford to wait for things to fix themselves. The longer they wait to make a move to address some of these problems, the more time they give Boston and the Jays to move ahead of them. (By the way, with tonight's 6-1 victory over the Cleveland Indians, the Yankees moved into first place in the AL East. Bostin is one game back and the Jays one game behind them.) So overall, the Jays have a lot going for them. Still, according to Baseball Prospectus's Postseason Odds charts, the Jays have only a 33.6% chance of making the post-season compared to 61.7% for the Yankees and 53.9% chance for the Red Sox. (That was before tonight's games.) The PECOTA-adjusted ratings further reduce the odds for the Jays to 23.5%. Still, the likelihood that the Jays are going to play "meaningful games" in September is quite high and with a projected finish of 88-89 wins, they are likely to be seriously challenging for the division title on September 1 and the Wild Card until mid-September. Then again, a lot can happen over 100 games. The Yankees could crash to reality or a group of Jays players could slump at the same time or Roy Hallady might injured or the Red Sox pull off a monster trade. But an analysis of how the Jays are doing so far yields the answer, yes they are for real. And the Yanks and Sox better realize that sooner rather than later before they are looking up at them in the standings. Wednesday, June 14, 2006
Quotidian "There is no shortage of good days. It is good lives that are hard to come by." -- Annie Dillard, The Writing Life World Cup predictions Ecuador ties Costa Rica 2-2 England beats Trinidad and Tobago 3-1 Sweden beats Paraguay 2-0 More from the 'life is cheap' file The Financial Times reports: "Cheap, high-quality ammunition is becoming widely available on the Baghdad black market, much of it smuggled in from eastern Europe, according to a report published on Thursday by Oxfam. In a section of a report on the global ammunition market, the charity says the price of bullets for AK-47 assault rifles has fallen to an average of $0.30 (€0.24, £0.16) in Baghdad. This compares with $1.50 a round in Somalia during recent fighting. Given that victims are killed by between four and 12 bullets, the cost of taking away a life in Baghdad is now $2.40, the report says." The truth about the politics of pollution Tom Spears in the Ottawa Citizen's Dark Matter (science) blog: "Finally the Ontario government has admitted what it had to know all along: It has no firm plan to shut down coal-burning power plants. The lights might go out if it does so. I’m not going to say whether I think these coal plants are good or bad. It doesn’t matter to this topic. The point here is that the coal-and-smog issue playing out in the past few days is a miniature version of the global warming and Kyoto Protocol issue. In both, governments acknowledge that pollution is bad. In both, they have said they intend to reduce fossil fuel use as a result. And in both, the reality turns out to be politically impossible. Rule No. 1 in environmental politics is probably this: You can’t stand in the way of people’s demand for energy. Gasoline rationing in World War II was possible, but only in a society that depended far less on its cars, and only with the threat of Hitler. Stop commuters today? Turn off their heat next winter? Forget it. And the sooner governments stop pretending that this is what they intend to do, the better it will be for us all." World Cup roundup Despite being solidly in control of the whole game, Germany needed extra time to beat Poland 1-0. Exciting game -- Germany is so talented and despite the fact that I detest the team and its players, they are exceptionally skilled and awesome playmakers to watch. That said, their finishing near the goal was a little short today and that explains the inability to score in the first 90 minutes despite having possession of the ball for 58% of the game and 15 shots (7 on target). Even without the goals, Germany is an exciting team to watch. (An aside: TNR Goal Post blogger Alex Massie had this to say about ESPN soccer analyst Eric Wynalda on the Germany-Poland game: "... Wynalda is proving quite good value. He's just said something along the lines of: 'We saw a lot of history there with Germany against Poland. ... That's the way it's supposed to finish, with the Germans winning.' I think he was only talking about the football.") Spain schooled Ukraine, beating them four-nil. Spain did everything well, including playing the off-side trap to perfection (Ukraine was caught off-side eight times; Spain, not once). They totally controlled the game even without Raul playing (injury). The fact that the Spanish side out-classed their opponents in every aspect of this game means that Andriy Shevchenko's nagging knee injury (he still played) probably wasn't a factor in the loss. Ukraine has no defense of which to speak and their midfield simply didn't show up to play. Most people wouldn't consider a match between Tunisia and Saudi Arabia at all interesting unless they were from Tunisia and Saudi Arabia. But two not-very-good teams (relatively speaking) can make for fun games to watch because lackluster defenses and mistakes by the midfield can allow an exciting scoring opportunities. But that didn't happen. Saudi Arabia outplayed Tunisia which was reduced to punting the ball away, avoiding passes and playing dull, uninspiring and (usually) unsuccessful football. Adding some excitement to an otherwise boring game was the pair of late goals -- there does seem to be a great many goals in the final ten minutes of games this finals, doesn't there? Tunisia and Saudi Arabia late in the game; Saudi Arabia to go ahead at the 84th minute and Tunisia to tie it in the second minute of extra time. Value for entertainment: B+. A- for both the Spanish-Ukraine game and Germany-Poland but a B- for Tunisia and Saudi Arabia which would have gotten a C- were it not for the final 15 minutes. Tough choice A friend sent an email notifying me of the speakers on the Nation magazine's cruise (Victor Navasky, Katrina vanden Heuvel, Joe Wilson, Scott Ritter, Steve Earle, Jane Smiley, Jonathan Kozol, Molly Ivins, the Rev. Lennox Yearwood, Jim Hightower, David Corn, Katha Pollitt, Laura Flanders) and asking what would be worse: listening to this lineup or prison rape? A more appropriate question might be: what would you rather do, listen to these speakers or jump overboard? And does it matter whether the water is shark infested? Interesting fact From the Sidelights column in July-August edition of The American Enterprise: "New York City accounts for 7 percent of the US population, and is home to 23 percent of the nation's psychiatrists." 'Moderate' Republicans Sarah Chamberlain Resnick, executive director of the Republican Main Street Partnership, writes in the Washington Post that a GOP midterm victory does not rely solely on energizing the conservative base of the Republican Party. Another piece of the puzzle is to attract independent voters. She says: "Centrist Republicans in the House are showing leadership on the issues independent voters care about. Nancy Johnson of Connecticut and Fred Upton of Michigan have spearheaded the effort to protect critical investments in education and health-care programs during this year's budget process. Efforts to curb skyrocketing gas prices through tough new legislation on price gouging have been championed by Heather Wilson of New Mexico. Mike Castle of Delaware and Jim Gerlach of Pennsylvania have led the way on ethics reform designed to restore and protect the integrity of the legislative process. On issue after issue, centrist Republicans in the House are fighting for an agenda that offers common-sense solutions to the problems facing our nation. Republican leadership in Washington should support and encourage these centrist efforts to reach out to independent swing voters." Efforts to curb gas prices are inherently statist and efforts to "protect critical investments in education and healthcare" is fidelity to big government. (Most ethics reform packages make great politics but little difference in curbing corruption.) So to attract independent voters Sarah Chamberlain Resnick suggests the Republicans act like Democrats. But given the choice between two Democratic parties, why wouldn't voters choose the real thing? Those 'contentious' issues The AP (via the Cincinatti Post) on a pro-life bill being considered in Ohio: "The contentious debate over abortion returned to the Statehouse on Tuesday as a House committee held a daylong hearing on a bill that would outlaw abortion in nearly all cases, including rape, incest or the health of the mother." Admittedly, regulations and restrictions on abortion are contentious issues (including, tactically, among pro-lifers), but in a democracy aren't almost all issues "contentious." Yet, the media and politicians never (or at least very seldom) describe environmental regulation, tax policy and minimum wage laws as "contentious," yet they, too, are subjects of great debate. Just an observation. Quebec and its future Adam Daifallah raises some questions about recent developments in Quebec politics that are getting little play outside the province. A couple of noteworthy points. 1) Daifallah is correct to warn that any prognosis of a dying separatism should be met with skepticism. 2) The little-noticed (outside Quebec) creation of the Québec-Plus Démocratie is a recognition of the limits of the cause of Quebec independence. Daifallah concludes: "So, do these people still want to make a country of Québec? The PQers in the group do, of course. But is it also true they have realized it would be better to take anything they can get rather than continuing to fight a losing battle for full-blown nationhood? Looks to me like yes." This is a positive development although the full implications are not yet understood and won't be for some time. However, it remains disconcerting that so few pundits in the Rest of Canada noticed this shift in the nationalist debate. You can't hold the Tories together with a new coat of paint Peter Riddell in the London Times says of the changes that Tory leader David Cameron is making within his party: "DAVID CAMERON needs some grit. At present he is going around telling everyone how much he cares: about the environment, global poverty, corporate social responsibility and happiness. But wanting to be 'Good Eco-Citizen of the Year' is not the same as turning your party into a credible alternative government. At one level, Mr Cameron’s rebranding campaign is working. The Tories were the winners in the May local elections and are now ahead in the polls, while Mr Cameron’s personal and leader rating is higher than his main rivals. He also, looking ahead to the next election, has a clear edge over Gordon Brown. But the party’s overall progress is still modest and nowhere near Labour’s dominance during the mid-1990s." Riddell concludes that "Image without substance leaves the Cameron revival looking rootless." And meaningless. Riddell offers an example of image over substance: "On Monday, at an awards ceremony, he said that banks were in a unique position to influence the companies to which they lend money, and through them to achieve objectives that business could and should share with the rest of society. Otherwise, companies would be vulnerable to the power of ethical consumers. But the implications are extraordinary. It is not the duty of banks to tell their customers how to achieve social objectives. That is a decision for boards of directors and their shareholders. It is sensible for companies to be concerned about climate change, as many big ones are, but not under pressure from banks." Riddell is, of course, right; public relations and image will only get you so far (and in the case of Cameron, apparently by abandoning good Tory principles) but Riddell is wrong to think that it is not far enough to win an election. A new, substanceless image probably can win an election; what matters, though, is whether getting elected will mean anything if there are few (worthy) principles with which one governs. It appears that Cameron will be little different from Tony Blair on the domestic front, offering platitudes in place of sound policy. Tuesday, June 13, 2006
Comments Comments, questions, feedback, abuse, and arguments about the World Cup or anything else I write or don't write about can be sent to paul_tuns[AT]yahoo.com. Dawn Eden's book is available for pre-order Dawn Eden's book, The Thrill of the Chaste: Finding Fulfillment While Keeping Your Clothes On, doesn't come out until December, but you can pre-order it now -- just $10.77 for the paperback. Amazon describes the book thusly: "Finally, a book for single women who, unsatisfied with living a worldly lifestyle, want to give their lives a new and godly direction. Author Dawn Eden, a Jewish-born rock journalist turned salty Christian blog queen, gives these readers the positive and uplifting message that they've been wanting to hear-that spiritual healing and a renewed outlook await them. Using her own experiences in the New York City singles jungle, she shows women how they too can go from insecurity to purity, and from forlorn to reborn. She tells women who have been around the block how to find their way home. Among inspirational books for single women, The Thrill of the Chaste is a pair of hip Ray-Bans in a field of rose-colored glasses. This isn't a book for dainty damsels in lacy white dresses patiently awaiting their handsome prince. This is for real women who need strong, motivational, and deeply moral messages to counter the ones they receive from a superficial, sex-obsessed world." Willing dupes or useful idiots? Ottawa Citizen columnist David Warren on the media's role in terrorism -- and the success of terrorists: "So much of the credit for his murderous successes, and those of other terrorists like him, must be given to the mainstream media -- both East and West. Journalists assiduously advance the terrorist cause, by reporting almost exclusively on allied setbacks and mistakes, and by their ceaseless improvisation of destructive criticism against "Bush" and other Western leaders and allies. Heroic, and largely successful reconstruction efforts in Iraq have been ignored; instead we have an endless spool of meticulously-reported terror hits. The Western media attention to, and celebration of, such unstable characters as Cindy Sheehan and Michael Berg, make their alliances obvious. The New York Times has been the bellwether for this. Almost every news item touching Iraq is spun to maximize its demoralizing effect on the allied war effort. And across America itself, editors look to the Times nightly front-page line-up for clues on how to slant their own coverage. To an enemy who depends utterly on morale, in the absence of significant military abilities -- who has only such weaponry as he can rig or steal, and only such soldiers as he can recruit in secret; who has no secure territory to which he can retreat and regroup -- this constant and reliable support from the media is indispensable. Without it, the 'resistance' in Iraq would have collapsed quickly, saving ten-thousands of lives; and the Afghan 'resistance' would be in greater disarray (though it has the benefit of secure pasturage in remote tribal mountain fastnesses)." Quotidian "Could we find anyone who does more good for anyone than parents do for children?" -- Socrates in Recollections of Socrates by Xenophon World Cup predictions Spain beats Ukraine 2-1 Tunisia and Saudi Arabia play to a 2-2 tie Germany routs Poland 3-0 Group H predictions Spain 3-0-0 Ukraine 2-1-0 Saudi Arabia 0-2-1 Tunisia 0-2-1 Spain and Ukraine advance World Cup today Good but not great games. That is not to say that they were not exciting -- South Korea was scrappy and Togo scored an unexpected early, first goal; the France-Switzerland matchup was a skillful display of midfield control although it lacked the rousing offensive finishes that France is quite capable of; Croatia had the upper hand in their 1-0 loss to Brasil and it was a solidly played game by both sides, but the anticipation of the overwhelming favourites from South America breaking out and scoring multiple goals kept this game on the border of exciting. On the whole, I'd give the games an entertainment grade of B (B- for France/Switzerland, B for South Korea and Togo and B+ for Brasil/Croatia), but they add a lot to the overall excitement of the World Cup finals. France is in a more precarious situation and South Korea now leads Group G. Brasil is not bulldozing their opponents by lop-sided scores and they look beatable, raising the hopes of the other contenders. Togo will go away from the tournament with at least a goal. Like I said, good fun although not much will be memorable. Yanks snap four game losing streak With a 1-0 win against the Cleveland Indians. The New York Yankees used four pitchers in the five-hit, one-walk game. Quite nice. More importantly, Derek Jeter returned to his customary shortstop position, therefore allowing Miguel Cairo to become reacquainted with the bench. Joke making the rounds Several people forwarded this joke to me: "Presidente Vincente Fox has announced that Mexico will not participate in the next Summer Olympics. Anyone who can run, jump, or swim has already left their country." World Cup predictions Today's games Brasil beats Croatia 3-0 France edges Switzerland 1-0 South Korea beats Togo 2-0 Group F predictions Brasil 3-0-0 Croatia 1-1-1 Australia 0-1-2 Japan 0-2-1 Brasil and Croatia advance* Group G prediction France 3-0-0 Switzerland 2-1-0 South Korea 1-2-0 Togo 0-3-0 France and Switzerland advance * Prediction was made before Australia won on Monday. Monday, June 12, 2006
Today's World Cup Again, not such a great day on the predictions. I got Italy-Ghana (2-0 for the Azzuri) exactly right but was dead wrong on USA-Czech Republic (Americans lost 3-0) and the tie I predicted for Japan and Australia went down the drain when the Socceroos scored three goals in an eight minute span in the last 12 minutes of the game. Some thoughts on the games. The Americans, ranked 5th in the world coming into the World Cup finals, looked lacklustre. Down 2-0 in the second half, there appeared to be no sense of urgency to get back in the game. Only substitute Eddie Johnson (46th minute) looked like he was expending any effort and indeed a powerful shot from about 20 yards just went wide -- a goal that could have energized the American side to put a little hustle in it. As bad as the Americans were -- and they were bad, they deserved to lose a miserable three-nil game -- the Czech Republic looked like a world class team. (They should, they are ranked by Fifa as the number two team in the world.) The Italy-Ghana game was a great one. Ghana, an African side in the World Cup finals for the first time but a squad with a lot of talent including Chelsea midfielder Michael Essien, Fenerbahce midfielder Stephen Appiah, and Roma defender Samuel Kuffour, played a very good game. They demonstrated that they deserve to be in Germany and forced their opponents to beat them. That is, Ghana was not and, likely won't be, an easy match for any opponent. And Italy rose to the challenge, playing some of the best soccer they have in recent years. Italy plays what many find an annoying style of soccer, the highly defensive catenaccio (what some commentators call a game of cat and mouse) with a strong counter-attack. It works, although Italy was saved several times by the goal posts or goalie Gianluigi Buffon. But likewise, Ghanan goaltender Richard Kingston made this game much closer than it could have been. The Italian offensive pairing of Alberto Gilardino and Luca Toni were unimpressive and unlucky, but otherwise the team looked like quarter finalists. The Australia-Japan game was a classic. Japan was leading 1-0 until the 85th minute when substitute Tim Cahill headed in a corner kick. Australia, perhaps the scrappiest team in the World Cup finals, never said die and indeed just missed scoring a minute before hand when John Aloisi's blistering 30-yard free kick was just saved. Many teams would have been happy to eke out the tie, but Cahill scored again at the 89th minute and Aloisi finally scored two minutes into extra time. It was a thrilling come-from-behind victory. As Alvin Corneal from the Technical Study Group noted, "it was a fair result based simply on their second-half performance. Australia never admitted defeat and showed incredible willpower and fighting spirit. The team gave everything and were rewarded with a vital opening victory." So while neither have superstars like Ronaldinho or Thierry Henry or Wayne Rooney, this game was exceptionally thrilling. Japan controlled the first 70 minutes with precision short passes and then Australia challenged them head on, running at the ball (just as the Guus Hiddink-coached South Koreans did in 2002). A two-goal victory is vital in the close battle for second. All the games were great: the Italians showed the form that leads many people to believe they can contend for the Cup, the Czechs showed why they are number two and the Socceroos emerged as the 2006 lovably unexpected surprise squad. Quotidian "We remove the organ and demand the function. We make men without chests and expect of them virtue and enterprise. We laugh at honour and are shocked to find traitors in our midst. We castrate and bid the geldings be fruitful." -- C.S. Lewis, The Abolition of Man Gerard Kennedy is a moron I know this is three weeks old, but could someone explain that the hell this means (from a speech to the Toronto Economic Club, May 25): "Mr. Harper shops at the Republican store but the day of the leader-king is gone. I'm here to be a catalyst." Homegrown Indian terrorists Hacks and Wonks: "Over the last two evenings I've read about reporters getting mugged, camera men being assaulted and tourists being car jacked. ALL IN PLAIN VIEW OF THE ONTARIO PROVINCIAL POLICE!" Another way to put this is that for whatever reason (orders from the top, the pendulum swing away from Ipperwash) the OPP turned a blind eye to the violence, therefore taking the sides of the Indian protestors. To repeat a point I made on Behind the Story yesterday, there is an abject failure on the part of Indian leaders, the OPP, the Ontario government and the media in dealing with the native occupation near Caledonia. The violence seen this past weekend is likely to be only the beginning because 1) there is a (seemingly) leadershipless group of Indian demonstrators that respect neither private property rights nor the laws of the nation while occupying land they claim is theirs, 2) the police turn a blind eye to crimes committed by Indian protestors right under their nose, 3) the province has done nothing to address the concerns of the Indians protestors or Caledonia residents other than give former premier David Peterson a nice stipend for doing nothing, and 4) the media outside the Hamilton area has effectively been silent on the crimes committed up to this point, including the destruction of a bridge at the hands of Indian protestors. Perhaps the story is "too hot" perhaps the media/cops are too politically correct. But the problems are likely to be just the beginning; it will be a hot, hot summer in Caledonia unless police regain control soon. Sunday, June 11, 2006
Weekend list 9 favourite soccer players (current) 9. Steven Gerrard (Liverpool/England) 8. Samuel Eto'o (Barcelona/Cameron) 7. Andrea Pirlo (AC Milan/Italy) 6. Gennaro Gattuso (AC Milan/Italy) 5. Giovanni van Bronkhorst (Barcelona/Netherlands) 4. Clarence Seedorf (AC Milan/not picked to play for Netherlands) 3. Andriy Shevchenko (Chelsea (formerly AC Milan)/Ukraine) 2. Thierry Henry (Arsenal/France) 1. Paolo Maldini (AC Milan/Italy) 9 favourite soccer players (during my lifetime) 9. George Weah (Liberia/Paris Saint Germain, AC Milan, Chelsea) 8. Roberto Donadoni (Italy/AC Milan, Metrostars) 7. Patrick Kluivert (Netherlands/Ajax, AC Milan, Barcelona) 6. Franco Baresi (Italy/AC Milan) 5. Paolo Maldini (Italy/AC Milan) 4. Eric Cantona (France/Marseille, Manchester United) 3. Marco van Basten (Netherlands/Ajax, AC Milan) 2. Frank Rijkaard (Netherlands/Ajax, AC Milan) 1. Ruud Gullit (Netherlands/PSV Eindhoven, AC Milan, Sampadoria) Quotidian "I wonder if I've been changed in the night? Let me think: was I the same when I got up this morning? I almost think I can remember feeling a little different. But if I'm not the same, the next question is 'Who in the world am I?' Ah, that's the great puzzle." -- Lewis Carroll, Alice's Adventures in Wonderland World Cup predictions Italy beats Ghana 2-0 United States ties Czech Republic 1-1 Japan ties Australia 2-2 Final Group E predictions Italy 2-0-1 USA 1-0-2 Czech 1-1-1 Ghana 0-3-0 Italy and USA advance World Cup play today I got the three winners right today but the scores wrong in two cases (Netherlands-Serbia exact and the Mexico-Iran game by goal differential). All the games were exciting in their own way (that's not a dig), although the Serbia-Netherlands game was by far the most fun to watch of any game this World Cup finals thus far with the exception of the opener, Germany v. Costa Rica and its six goals. A quick comment about Franklin Foer's comment in TNR's WC blog, Goal Post, on the Dutch game. Foer said: "Arjen Robben scored a nice goal and looked dangerous throughout the match. But it was also an extremely selfish performance. (Apparently, his teammates aren't being shy about saying so, either.) He showed Ruud absolutely no love and generally held on to the ball for several unnecessary beats. If the Dutch want to run up the score, they are going to have give their center-forward some service. I consider Ruud to be a cheater and exceptionally annoying, but you can't help but admire his nose for the goal. That said, the Dutch could easily take out Argentina--and make a nice run beyond. They pass the ball nearly as well as the Argentines. I watched their friendly against Mexico last week and am nuts for their B-team. I would like to see some of Ryan Babbel, their crazy-legged 19-year old striker." Robben may not like van Nistelrooy (van Nisterlrooij in Dutch) and that might explain the lack of passing to the Manchester United center forward -- up to a point. Another, less conspiratorial, explanation would be that Serbia, a terrific defensive team, shadowed van Nistelrooy throughout the game whereas Robben was all over the pitch (left and right wings, penetrating the box, etc...). Robben didn't pass because 1) he had the scoring opportunities and 2) passes to van Nistelroy would likely have been intercepted. While Serbia was able to give the Dutch side a few scares in the second half, the Netherlands dominated by controlling the pace of the game and playing on the wings at the edge of the pitch thus tiring out the Serbian defense. If the Dutch squad can play like this throughout the tournament, with or without van Nistelrooy scoring, they have an excellent chance to go far, including the finals. World Cup predictions Perhaps I should stop making predictions. I was 2 for 3 on Saturday but quite off in the scores. Anyway, here's the predictions for Sunday's games. Netherlands beats Serbia-Montenegro 1-0 Mexico beats Iran 2-0 Portugal beats Angola 3-1 Final prediction for Group D Portugal 2-0-1 Mexico 2-0-1 Iran 0-2-1 Angola 0-2-1 Portugal and Mexico advance Saturday, June 10, 2006
Quotidian "Poor Owen went through life with a frank dread of people's minds." -- Henry James, The Spoils of Poynton Sweden worse than Canada Jonah Goldberg wrote a column in which he said that being "nice" is no prophylactic against terrorism in which he described Canada as "arguably the most deluded industrialized nation in the world." A Corner reader emailed him to protest, saying that Canada is, at "best," number two on such a list behind Sweden. The reader states: "Sweden has all the symptoms of a society in collapse and in complete denial about it: * Police no-go areas (for the few police they have); * An atrophied military (soon to be about 5000 troops); * Cities that will soon be Muslim majority; * Under-reported rise in violent crime (robbery, rape) by immigrants who admit to being “at war” with the Swedish state and who claim to derive personal pleasure humiliating the “wimpy” Swedes; * Jihadism openly preached and excused by Swedish elites; * Politicians who stump for votes in Pakistan where many Swedish “citizens” spend much of their time; * An all-but-open immigration policy that apparently costs the state a vast fortune; * An aggressive anti-nationalism that forbids students from displaying the Swedish flag at school; * Hamas members officially welcomed; * Violent leftist and “anti-racist” groups who intimidate people daring to question the assumptions of Swedish multiculturalism and immigration; * And, of course, an official anti-Israeli position that veers into anti-Semitism." Friday, June 09, 2006
World Cup predictions Saturday's games England beats Paraguay 3-1 Sweden beats Trinidad and Tobago 4-0 Argentina beats Ivory Coast 3-2 Final prediction for Group B England 3-0-0 Sweden 2-1-0 Paraguay 1-2-0 Trinidad 0-3-0 England and Sweden advance Final prediction for Group C Netherlands 2-0-1 Argentina 1-1-1 Ivory Coast 0-1-2 Serbia and Montenegro 0-1-2 Argentina and Netherlands advance Quotidian "There was nothing royal about Louis Philippe Scatcherd but his name." --Anthony Trollope, Doctor Thorne Thursday, June 08, 2006
Announcements While blogging will be sporadic over the next month (there is this little soccer tourney in Germany that I'm following, as well as a book that I am woefully behind on), the next few days will be lighter than usual; my parents are in town and I'm taping Behind the Story on Saturday. If you are interested, you can see my on the show on Sunday evening at 7pm EST. We'll be talking about terrorism, Islam and terrorism, the media and terrorism, politics and a lightning round of a bunch of topics that didn't fit in any of the previous four segments. My plan for the next few days is to put up the Quotidian, my soccer predictions, a weekend list and perhaps something related to my prep work for the show. If that interests you, drop on by, but if not come back Monday. Of course, every time I do this, I blog up a storm because I blog as a form of procrastination or to slip away from my other responsibilities, but I'll try to limit my time in front of the computer, trading in the desktop for the television this weekend. Quotidian "Incidentally, pseudo-festivals exist, as well as pseudo-work. Not all activity, not every kind of expenditure of effort and earning of money, deserves the name of work. That should be applied only to the active -- and usually also laborious -- procurement of the things that are truly useful for living. And it is a good guess that only meaningful work can provide the soil in which festivity flourishes. Perhaps both work and celebrations spring from the same root, so that when the one dries up, the other withers." -- Josef Pieper, In Tune with the World: A Theory of Festivity Press double standards Jay Nordlinger is his typical great self in today's Impromptus column, chock full of great stuff but I wanted to highlight one stellar part: "Bear with me on this one, because you might call me a political paranoid. (Heaven forfend.) When Duke Cunningham and other Republicans get in trouble, I’m asked—we’re asked — 'Do you think this will hurt the GOP? What will be the effect?' Some bad apples are taken to represent the whole party, and spoil it. But is this ever—ever—asked about Cynthia McKinney, Patrick Kennedy, William Jefferson? Hmm? Hmm? Why aren’t they ever said to damage the party? To repeat myself: Hmm?" World Cup predictions My prediction for the final: Brasil beats Netherlands Prediction for third place: England beats Germany Prediction for tomorrow's Group A games: Germany beats Costa Rica 3-0 Poland beats Ecuador 2-1 Final Prediction for Group A Germany: 3-0-0 Poland: 2-1-0 Ecuador: 1-2-0 Costa Rica: 0-3-3 Germany and Poland advance Too funny This was passed onto me through someone's email list and I thought it was hilariously funny. Don Surber envisions John F. Burns of the New York Times being recalled from Baghdad to cover this week's Yankees-Red Sox series: The quagmire at Yankee Stadium Fans came trickling into Yankee Stadium amid fears that their hometown team would implode. Only 55,246 fans attended the game. Yankees pitcher Mike Mussina was in trouble early as Covelli "Coco" Crisp opened the game with a double for the Sox of Red. The higher paid Yankees were futile as they tried to deal with the insurgent Crisp. Their battle plan was wrong, and coaches in the field admitted as much off the record. Although the next three batters each struck out, Mussina was a tired, overpaid pitcher, ill-equipped to deal with the flexibility of the speedy Crisp. In the home half of inning Johnny Damon walked, but was quickly erased in fielders choice. the Yankees were hemmed into a Green Zone by Josh Beckett's pitches. Yankee batters lacked the proper body armor to face Boston pitchers as Jorge Posada would discover when he was hit with a pitch later, in the bottom of the third. It was a near-fatal blow that the trainer admitted could have been deadly if the pitch had been thrown faster and at his temple, and he had his helmet off. In the top of the second, the Boston assault began in earnest with the Yankees unable to tell when the Sox of Red would next score. First Trot Nixon singled. Then Kevin Youkillis singled. Then Mike Lowell singled to tie the game at 1. The Red Sox had Mussina on the ropes. It was the 2004 playoffs all over again. You could see it in the eyes of the fans. They knew the Yankees could not stop the Boston team. Jason Varitek gave himself up in a sacrifice double play and Boston soon ended the inning with twice as many runs as the Yankees. It was useless. The Yankees were too far behind. Caught in a quagmire after but 1 1/2 innings, experts in the Yankee clubhouse said they would give up soon. The Yankees tried to rally as Posada and Robinson Canó somehow managed to get on base. But Andy Phillips ended the rally with a three-run homer. Sure, Bernie Williams, Miguel Cairo and Damon each singled to continue the inning. But Melky Cabrera grounded into a fielder's choice. Again. Just like he did in the first inning. That made Jason Giambi's home run a three-run blast instead of a grand slam. Experts agreed that even with an 8-2 lead, there was no way the Yankees could ever win this battle. Beckett walked the next batter and decided that with the Yankee team this far behind even though the score was 8-2, he could go home early and save his arm for another day. He let Jermaine Van Buren finish the inning. A play-by-play of the rest of the game was unnecessary. The Yankees were outnumbered. Reports had it that the Yankees battered Van Buren for 5 runs in the bottom of the third. President Steinbrenner vowed to appoint an independent investigation to see if this was true and to take appropriate action. The Yankees had scored a few runs early, maybe 13, but late in the game, when it would have mattered if the game had been close, they were unable to score. This showed a team whose batters were tired from running around the bases, obviously out of shape. Manager Joe Torre refused to answer questions about the lack of conditioning for the team. But the facts are the facts. The team's offense gave up after a mere three innings. David Riske faced 12 batters and none of them scored. Two struck out. Julian Tavarez faced 8 batters. None of them scored. Two struck out. Manny Delcarmen faced 3 batters in the 8th and none of them scored. That showed the Yankees took on the Boston team without the proper training, body armor or manpower. While the scoreboard showed the Yankees 13, Red Sox 5, it was a moral victory for Boston and bodes poorly for the rest of the season for the New York team, which was expected to win easily instead of giving up so many runs. Wouldn't you want to see them at the next NR shin-dig together? National Review senior editor Ramesh Ponnuru responds to the nasty review that John Derbyshire gave his book The Party of Death. Derbyshire calls Ponnuru's ideas gaseous and Ponnuru returns the insult employing the same word to describe The Derb's writing (and throwing in logorrhea, to boot). I read Derbyshire's review and was disappointed, but not surprised by it. Derbyshire was not merely pro-abortion, pro-euthanasia, pro-death in most of its modern medical/scientific forms, but anti pro-life and anti pro-lifer. He did not seriously engage Ponnuru's arguments, choosing instead to hurl invective toward the entire pro-life movement. Ponnuru on the other hand had this uncharitable but accurate conclusion to make: "It is interesting—and of course gratifying—that the two leading criticisms of my book (Peter Berkowitz’s thoughtful review in the Wall Street Journal and Derbyshire’s intemperate essay) both attempt an escape from reason. This is nihilism. It is also laziness." The Derb has a reply to Ponnuru's response in which explains why he wrote the review he did and says he meant nothing personal and hope they can continue be friends. As Derbyshire says, "There is a matter of fine judgment here, and I now think I got it wrong. On the one hand, there’s collegiality. On the other, spirited controversy." It is a fine line and I think that Derbyshire more than inched by it. Which is why Ponnuru doesn't seem to accept the implicit apology in his response in The Corner to The Derb's reply. What is the root cause of stupidity Munir Chagpar wrote this letter to the Toronto Star: "I think we need to analyze the causes of the arrests that happened last weekend. Prime Minister Stephen Harper is right in saying that this is hatred — but I don't think he is aware of the cause of this hatred. You cannot just say that these accused people hate our way of life or our freedoms. On the contrary, the people who were arrested have actually been brought up enjoying the luxuries of life in Canada and are actually Canadian citizens. I think the issue is deeper and is linked directly or indirectly to Canada's foreign policy. True, Canada did not go into Iraq, but it is in Afghanistan freeing up American troops to fight their 'war' in Iraq. And this brings memories of Abu Ghraib and the recent cover-up at Haditha." Never mind that what has recently been revealed to have occurred at Haditha cannot be used an excuse for terrorist activities two years in the planning. If? David Mader notes what Liberal MP Keith Martin had to say about the arrests of the 17 suspected terrorists: "If these allegations are true, it's really appalling ... It's a wakeup call for all Canadians that we are a target, we are a mark." Mader responds: "... his quote is telling. If the allegations are true, it's a wakeup call. If not - then what? Then we can all go back to sipping margaritas? Keith: WAKE UP." My fear is that Keith Martin is not alone in his assessment of what has happened this past week. Adam Daifallah wrote in Wednesday's New York Sun that, "These arrests have shaken Canada profoundly. There's no way to deny anymore that Islamism inside our own borders is a real threat. Our holiday from the war on terror is over." I am afraid that a good many Canadians are still on their vacation. On the moon. History lesson Burkean Canuck points to this Zenit interview with Robert Spencer (which is worth reading) and gleans this lesson: "The medieval, Christian cities of Jerusalem, Alexandria, Constantinople, and others were conquered and turned into Muslim domains. The reason more cities were not is that Europe mounted a defensive action known to history as 'the Crusades'." That is a useful antidote to the bad history that most people have "know." Wednesday, June 07, 2006
NCC can keep support-the-troops campaign National Citizens Coalition vice president Gerry Nicholls has the details here. And you can support their fund for the families of fallen soldiers here. Quotidian "But the liberty, the only liberty, I mean is a liberty connected with order: that not only exists along with order and virtue, but which cannot exist at all without them." -- Edmund Burke, Speech at his Arrival at Bristol UN official criticizes US A top bureaucrat, namely the Mark Malloch Brown, the Deputy Secretary General, gave a speech to an event jointly held by the Century Foundation and Center for American Progress yesterday, in which he talked broadly about the UN's role in global peace and security during which he implicitly criticized the United States: "The US -- like every nation, strong and weak alike -- is today beset by problems that defy national, inside-the-border solutions: climate change, terrorism, nuclear proliferation, migration, the management of the global economy, the internationalization of drugs and crime, the spread of diseases such as HIV and avian flu. TodayÂ?s new national security challenges basically thumb their noses at old notions of national sovereignty. Security has gone global, and no country can afford to neglect the global institutions needed to manage it. Kofi Annan has proposed a restructuring of the UN to respond to these new challenges with three legs: development, security and human rights supported, like any good chair, by a fourth leg, reformed management. That is the UN we want to place our bet on. But for it to work, we need the US to support this agenda -- and support it not just in a whisper but in a coast to coast shout that pushes back the critics domestically and wins over the sceptics internationally. AmericaÂ?s leaders must again say the UN matters. When you talk better national education scores, you donÂ?t start with 'I support the Department of Education.' Similarly for the UN it starts with politicians who will assert the US is going to engage with the world to tackle climate change, poverty, immigration and terrorism. Stand up for that agenda consistently and allow the UN to ride on its coat-tails as a vital means of getting it done. It also means a sustained inside-the-tent diplomacy at the UN. No more 'take it or leave it', red-line demands thrown in without debate and engagement." Notably, no other nation was singled out. Mark Malloch Brown says the U.S. is not as constructively engaged as Turtle Bay would like because it is bad politics for Washington to be seen relying on other nations to achieve foreign policy goals. And whose fault is that? Rush Limbaugh's, apparently. Malloch Brown says the American public is unaware of the United States of America's "constructive engagement" with the UN: "... in part because much of the public discourse that reaches the US heartland has been largely abandoned to its loudest detractors such as Rush Limbaugh and Fox News. That is what I mean by 'stealth' diplomacy: the UNÂ?s role is in effect a secret in Middle America even as it is highlighted in the Middle East and other parts of the world." This speech seems a tad political, one-sided and ill-informed. Is it not possible that Americans know of the few times the UN and US have worked effectively together but find that such occasions are few and far between? When did Mark Malloch Brown, the Kofi Annan apologist, become an expert of American views and values of Middle America? Has he even ever listened to Rush Limbaugh or was that criticism something he picked up at a Manhattan dinner party? Perhaps if the UN became an effective tool to solving the world's problems instead of a body that criticizes the United States and Israel but expects the former to pick up all the bills and provide all the muscle, Americans would care a little more about the international institution. Speeches such as this one, however, will do little to bridge the gap between middle America and Turtle Bay. More 2006 midterm election stuff Overall, according to the Evans-Novak Political Report (email dispatch), there seems to be some upside to this week's happenings for the GOP. First, the Federal Marriage Amendment's political fallout: "Federal Marriage Amendment: The Senate vote on the Federal Marriage Amendment was expected to fail from the beginning, but it will put heat on Democratic senators in rough races this fall. Critics have derided this debate and vote as an exercise in political pandering to the GOP base. This is not entirely accurate, but the vote will certainly become a political tool for conservatives. The challenger to Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.) will take advantage of this vote, and the issue could help Lt. Gov. Michael Steele (R-Md.) and Rep. Mark Kennedy (R-Minn.) in their quests for open Senate seats, especially in Minnesota where voters may vote on a same-sex marriage ban this year. (Even if they do not, it will still be an issue as Democrats have blocked the initiative from the ballot.) Also endangered by this vote is Sen. Lincoln Chafee (R-R.I.), who faces a tough primary challenge from his right." And after the primaries, the E-NPR has the following predictions for November: Alabama gubernatorial: Likely Republican Retention California gubernatorial: Leaning Republican Retention California 11th CD: Leaning Republican Retention California 50th CD: Likely Republican Retention California 51st CD: Likely Democratic Retention Iowa gubernatorial: Leaning Republican Takeover Iowa 1st CD: Leaning Democratic Takeover Mississippi 2nd CD: Likely Democratic Retention Montana Senate: Leaning Democratic Takeover New Jersey Senate: Leaning Democratic Retention New Jersey 13th CD: Likely Democratic Retention Furthermore, the Report says that Republicans are eager to challenge Democratic Governor John Baldacci and three quality, credible candidates are vying for the GOP nomination in the June 13 primaries. Good omen for GOP? The CW was that the 50th CD was thought to be a bellwether for Democrats: a corrupt Congressman resigned, forcing the by-election just five months before the November elections, and thus the issue of corruption and arrogance are at the forefront here. Well, former Republican Rep. Brian Bilbray defeated Democrat Francine Busby, replacing the Jack Abrahmoff-bought Duke Cunningham. So what does bellwether mean? If the Democrats won, it would mean that the Democrats are going to ride to a massive takeover of both houses of Congress. But a Republican wins means nothing because they were always poised to take this seat considering that President George W. Bush won it with 55% of the vote in 2004. My take: it's better that the Democrats didn't win because it would give them momentum, leading the party to look like winners. It is also one slightly safer seat for the Republicans this November. But in the grand scheme of things, it changes little. My thinking has changed in recent months from "the Republicans are holding onto both houses" to "the House might be in some trouble" to "the GOP has a 50-50 shot of losing the House and a 50-50 shot of losing the Senate." Yesterday's results don't change this last impression of the political landscape. Okay, maybe a little: I now give the Republicans a 51% chance of keeping the House of Representatives. Yanks top BoSox again and Bronx Bomber 'luck' The New York Yankees beat the Boston Red Sox last night, 2-1, with defensive liability Melky Cabrera making an outstanding catch over the fence to rob Manny Ramirez of a game-tying homer in the eighth. The Bronx Bombers record of 12 straight games with a least ten hits ended, as David Pauley and Rudy Seanez held their rivals to only nine hits. And while the Red Sox pitchers gave up only three walks, two were deadly: Cabrera was walked on four pitches to load the bases in the seventh and Jason Giambi then drew a walk to bring in the game-winning run. How long can this "luck" last? The Yankees have played with a lot of below replacement level players regularly in their lineup and yet always find a way to score. The great five weeks that Bernie Williams have had notwithstanding, average and below average players will eventually have numbers that are more realistic. Considering that Williams was in steep decline the previous two seasons and slow decline in the two before that, there is no reason to believe that he is once again a 300 hitter, albeit one playing DH and OF without power. But even with the 300 average since May 1, he is a below average player at his position, so when he returns to form, the numbers will be awful. So to return to the question: how long does the luck last? Who knows? -- it's luck, it's unpredictable. The Chicago White Sox won a disproportionate number of one-run games last year, leading some stat-heads to suggest that they were a lucky team. A team that wins a disproportionate number of one-run games over the course of a month or two is lucky; a team that does it all year is good (or better). Great teams -- and the Yankees this year are one -- seem to always have their disproportionate share of lucky breaks: bad calls against opponents or good calls in their favour, lucky bounces, a hot streak by a nobody or has-been, a pitching gem by yesterday's man in a must-win game, etc&. Perhaps it is Joe Torre, able to squeeze just enough juice out of just enough lemons to sate the Standings Gods -- for now. So while the Yankees shouldn't keep up their torrid pace (11-2 in the past 13 games, including against the best in the AL (Detroit Tigers and Boston Red Sox)), they will be "lucky" enough to win more than their fair share of games. A team like the comprehensively miserable Kansas City Royals (four below replacement level players in their starting lineup) will not have such luck. To a degree, a team makes their own "luck." Yankee hitters get calls to go their way because they are a justifiably famously patient team; Yankee pitchers get strike calls their way because they are pitchers who throw strikes. The Royals' players on the other hand, haven't earned judgment calls going their way. Government orders NCC billboard down The Department of Defense wants the National Citizens Coalition to take down their billboard and cease their website activities in support of Canadian troops. There is a section of the National Defense Act that prohibits such things and thus the NCC will comply but there is a larger issue here. The problem is a vaguely written law that encompasses too much: "Section 291 of the National Defence Acts states: 1) Every person who uses (a) the words "Canadian Forces" or "Canadian Armed Forces" or the name of any component, unit or other element thereof or any abbreviation thereof or any words or letters likely to be mistaken therefore, (b) any picture or other representation of a member of the Canadian Forces, or (c) any uniform, mark, badge or insignia in use in the Canadian Forces, in any advertising or in any trade or service, having been requested in writing by the Minister to cease that usage, is guilty of an offence punishable on summary conviction." So private support of Canada's troops is not allowed. NCC vice president Gerry Nicholls notes on his blog: "In other words, says the DND, it’s a crime for us to express gratitude to the men and women who are risking their lives to defend our freedoms!! Something is very wrong here. I can understand a law prohibiting improper use of military symbols for advertising, but citizens should be permitted to make what are essentially patriotic statements." Government sure is a jealous creature. Mixed thoughts about Home Depot program The Private Sector Development blog of the World Bank notes a program by Home Depot that allows Americans to make simple remittances cheaper and more convenient. Here's the description by Christine Bowers of how it works: "Its MiCash card comes in packages of two, one for the worker in the U.S. and the other for his or her family back home. Users load money onto the card at ATMs or participating Home Depot stores (all in the metro DC area so far), and recipients can use a variety of ATM networks to withdraw the remittances in local currency." The cost of the remittance will be $8 compared to an average of $30 with other services. There is a downside; Bowers notes: "Home Depot parking lots across the U.S. are well-known gathering places for laborers hoping for a day’s wages on a light construction or other job. Many of these workers are immigrants, and Home Depot seems to be targeting them in particular with a well-conceived service. Besides sending remittances, the cards can be used to receive direct deposit of paychecks, to pay utilities or as a debit card for daily purchases." Now Bowers is excited about this and indeed it is a good thing for those in the developing world. But this might also encourage illegal immigration, providing a way for "undocumented workers" to keep out of official sight. Good news for Golden State families They, not the state, will be responsible for raising their children. Californians (and perhaps a few Mexicans) voted 60% to 40% against preschool education for four-year-olds. Amazing: both Canada and left-coast CA have rejected universal daycare. Tuesday, June 06, 2006
Shiite restraint Jay Nordlinger points to this story about the mass graves found in Iraq, where Saddam Hussein may have killed between 100,000 and 180,000 Shiites after the first Gulf War and says: "Really, the restraint of Iraqi Shiites, in not exacting revenge, has been extraordinary. The more you learn, the more you become convinced of this." The AP story Nordlinger links to reports: "Saddam and seven co-defendants are on trial for the killings of more than 140 Shiites following a 1982 assassination attempt against him in the town of Dujail - the first of what Iraqi authorities say could be up to a dozen proceedings. Saddam could face death by hanging if convicted in the Dujail case. But President Jalal Talabani, a Kurd, has said he doubted any sentence would be carried out until all trials were complete." At 140 deaths at time a time, Saddam could be in court for a very long time. Let's hope he isn't. The noose would be the perfect accessory to his ensemble. Nova Scotia politics The Halifax Chronicle Herald reports that polling data indicates that Rodney McDonald's Progressive Conservatives are headed toward a majority government. I am sure that it is a distrabution thing because the polling results show a close race to my untrained eye: Tories 38%, NDP 36%, 20% Liberal and 15% undecided. How a two-point lead, one out of seven voters unsure who to support and a margin of error of 4.1% translates into a Conservative majority government is beyond me. Yanks in first The New York Yankees beat the satan-worshipping Boston Red Sox 13-5. Who's your daddy, Boston? With the win, the Yankees are first by a half game in the AL East. The Yankees had a seven-run and five-run inning because ... well, because they are the Yankees and the team is always capable of big innings. Two such innings are too much even for the Red Sox. How did they do it? They had only two homeruns and a pair of doubles, so there wasn't a lot of power. But they did get 12 hits and 10 walks. It is hard to beat a team that puts 22 runners on the bases. But more importantly, after a week in which Yankee hitters were getting hits but fewer walks than usual, it was a welcome return to patience at the plate. Red Sox pitchers threw 167 pitches and were forced to use four relievers. Great job by the Yankees in the opener of a four-game series. It is small and underappreciated things like that which make a difference in a series and thus a season. Also, Mariano Rivera returned and was in fine form, with 13 of 16 pitches thrown for strikes. Bush on SSM President George W. Bush yesterday on a Marriage Protection Act: "The union of a man and woman in marriage is the most enduring and important human institution. For ages, in every culture, human beings have understood that marriage is critical to the well-being of families. And because families pass along values and shape character, marriage is also critical to the health of society. Our policies should aim to strengthen families, not undermine them. And changing the definition of marriage would undermine the family structure. America is a free society which limits the role of government in the lives of our citizens. In this country, people are free to choose how they live their lives. In our free society, decisions about a fundamental social institution as marriage should be made by the people. The American people have spoken clearly on this issue through their elected representatives and at the ballot box. In 1996, Congress approved the Defense of Marriage Act by large bipartisan majorities in both the House and the Senate, and President Clinton signed it into law. And since then, 19 states have held referendums to amend their state constitutions to protect the traditional definition of marriage. In every case, the amendments were approved by decisive majorities with an average of 71 percent. Today, 45 of the 50 states have either a state constitutional amendment or statute defining marriage as a union of a man and a woman. These amendments and laws express a broad consensus in our country for protecting the institution of marriage. The people have spoken. Unfortunately, this consensus is being undermined by activist judges and local officials who have struck down state laws protecting marriage and made an aggressive attempt to redefine marriage." The case for the separation of death and taxes The Club for Growth blog has a gazillion posts and links on repealing the death tax. Check out the posts from June 5. Bloody bureaucrats From the Windsor Star (via Nealenews): "A group of senior women hoping to raise money for Willistead Manor during Art in the Park likely lost hundreds of dollars after food inspectors spoiled their egg salad with bleach on the weekend. About a dozen women belonging to Friends of Willistead were preparing the egg salad sandwiches inside Willistead Manor just before noon Saturday when three food inspectors from the Windsor-Essex County Health Unit arrived unannounced and began citing infractions. When an inspector asked where the eggs were cooked and was told they were prepared at the ladies' homes, she poured bleach on the sandwiches and the egg salad mixture. 'There was a meanness there,' said Brenda Clayton, the president of Friends of Willistead." Ex-Beatles ex's sex acts That should get some extra hits on this blog. Anyway, the Daily Mail reports that it has been revealed that Paul McCartney's soon-to-be ex, Heather Mills McCartney, has performed "sex acts" in a pornographic photo shoot for a German how-to manual. The acts included being smothered in baby oil and acting out bondage scenes with a male model and simulating sex. Mills McCartney's lawyers describe the book, which was published about 20 years ago, as a "'lovers guide' to caring relationships and instructive sex" which was "not pornographic or for the purposes of gratification of the viewer." She claims not to have had actual sex with the models. For years, Mills McCartney has said that rumours of her doing anything more than topless modeling were untrue, including being a high-end prostitute to rich Arabs such as arms dealer Adnan Khashoggi and Harrods boss Mohamed Al Fayed. Considering that she could end up with £200 million of McCartney's £850 million fortune for four years worth of marriage, one might take the uncharitable view that she is one hell of an expensive whore. Somalia the latest Muzzie conquest Islamic fundamentalists have over-taken Mogadishu, capital of the quasi-country Somalia. The New York Times reports: "American officials have said they fear that the country may descend into a situation similar to that of Afghanistan, where a hard-line Islamist group, the Taliban, seized control of the country and then gave safe haven to Al Qaeda. Already American officials have said that a handful of foreign fighters with links to Al Qaeda are being shielded by Mogadishu's Islamist leaders." Score one for the bad guys. Root causes & Canada's 17 you-can't-call-them-Muslim (alleged) terrorists Remember all that blather about the West being targeted by Islamic terrorists because it had troops in Iraq and supported Israel? Here's the New York Sun editorial from Monday connecting that erroneous line of (non) thinking and the 17 suspected terrorists arrested in Canada on Friday: "Canada sent no troops to liberate Iraq. Our neighbor to the North so opposed the Iraq War that at least one American deserter fled there for safe harbor, as draft-dodgers did during the Vietnam War. And while Canada is mildly pro-Israel, and more so under its new conservative government, its arms sales to the Jewish state are peanuts compared to America's, and at the United Nations on key votes it's likely to abstain rather than join the America, Micronesia, and Palau in voting with Israel. What the Islamic extremists oppose in Canada is neither its support for Israel nor its behavior in Iraq but the mere fact that it is not a country governed by Islamic law." Altogether now, out loud: "What the Islamic extremists oppose in Canada is ... the mere fact that it is not a country governed by Islamic law." If we exchange the maple leaf on the flag for a hammer and sickle, er, sorry, crescent and sword, we might be able to buy some time. Monday, June 05, 2006
Quotidian Once on a time, the ancient legends tell, Truth, rising from the bottom of her well, Looked on the world, but, hearing how it lied, Returned to her seclusion horrified. There she abode, so conscious of her worth, Not even Pilate's Question called her forth, Nor Galileo, kneeling to deny The Laws that hold our Planet 'neath the sky. Meantime, her kindlier sister, whom men call Fiction, did all her work and more than all, With so much zeal, devotion, tact, and care, That no one noticed Truth was otherwhere. Then came a War when, bombed and gassed and mined, Truth rose once more, perforce, to meet mankind, And through the dust and glare and wreck of things, Beheld a phantom on unbalanced wings, Reeling and groping, dazed, dishevelled, dumb, But semaphoring direr deeds to come. Truth hailed and bade her stand; the quavering shade Clung to her knees and babbled, "Sister, aid! I am--I was--thy Deputy, and men Besought me for my useful tongue or pen To gloss their gentle deeds, and I complied, And they, and thy demands, were satisfied. But this--" she pointed o'er the blistered plain, Where men as Gods and devils wrought amain-- "This is beyond me! Take thy work again." Tablets and pen transferred, she fled afar, And Truth assumed the record of the War... She saw, she heard, she read, she tried to tell Facts beyond precedent and parallel-- Unfit to hint or breathe, much less to write, But happening every minute, day and night. She called for proof. It came. The dossiers grew. She marked them, first, "Return. This can't be true." Then, underneath the cold official word: "This is not really half of what occurred." She faced herself at last, the story runs, And telegraphed her sister: "Come at once. Facts out of hand. Unable overtake Without your aid. Come back for Truth's own sake! Co-equal rank and powers if you agree. They need us both, but you far more than me!" -- Rudyard Kipling, "A Legend of Truth" Some things never change That stench coming from Ottawa is corporate pork. Not that old kind of corporate pork but a new kind. Canada Economic Development announced about two weeks ago: "The Honourable Jean-Pierre Blackburn, Minister of Labour and Minister of Canada Economic Development, today announced a repayable contribution of $409,500 to Charcuterie L. Fortin. The announcement coincides with the official opening of the delicatessen's new facilities at its two Alma plants. This investment will enable the company to export to other markets within the next three years." (HT: CTF blog) What a bunch of whack-jobs The AP reports that one in five students at Cornell and Princeton (Ivy League schools) purposely injure themselves through cutting, burning or some other method; 70% report doing so more than once. Psyhologists say that students at other universities, as well as high school and middle school students, are doing the same thing as a form of "extreme coping mechanism." But the nutty behaviour is not their fault, you know: "Among the Ivy League students who harmed themselves, about half said they'd experienced sexual, emotional or physical abuse that researchers think can trigger self-abuse." Or perhaps it is just stupidity. Or a form of radical self-expression. Weekend list The only nine teams that can win the World Cup (in order of likelihood) 9. Sweden -- Three strong attackers each of whom can turn a game around 8. Spain -- Talented but under-rated team, it has no expectations to live up to 7. Argentina -- Talented team that seldom lives up to expectations 6. Germany -- Declining soccer dynasty but has homefield advantage 5. Italy -- Would be higher were it not for distractions in domestic league 4. France -- Two superstars who can lift team on their shoulders and win 3. England -- Best midfield in the tournament, strong offense even without Rooney 2. Netherlands -- Great all-around team, hungry, Germany is practically home field advantage 1. Brazil -- Three superstars who can life team on their shoulders and win Sunday, June 04, 2006
Quotidian "... the only period in all human history when people were proud of being modern. For though today is always today and the moment is always modern, we are the only men in all history who fell back upon bragging about the mere fact that today is not yesterday. I fear that some in the future will explain it by saying that we had previous little else to brag about." -- G.K. Chesterton, "On Turnpikes and Medievalism" from All I Survey More to this bad analysis than meets the eye Greg Staples takes issue with this column about the arrest of 17 suspected terrorists in Canada that appeared in the Australian. Staples wonders how you trust a column that states as fact that the nation's commitment to keep troops in Afghanistan was maintained only through the support of the Bloc Quebecois (they actually voted against extending the mission). Greg makes a valid point but there is a more glaring problem with David Nason's column. Nason says: "The arrests will help Harper persuade Canadians that a closer security relationship with the US is necessary, as well as shore up support for the 2000-strong Canadian military presence in Afghanistan." That may be true but it not yet demonstrably true; in fact, I seriously doubt that the arrests will move Canada closer to the United States in the war on terror. The conventional wisdom says it will, but the conventional wisdom is often wrong. Stephen Harper has been quite timid in challenging many of Canada's sacred cows and political pieties. He has chipped away at the edges of policy and procedure where he can get away with it (more transparency in appointing judges, questioning the life-long tenure of senators, opposing the creation of a new national daycare scheme, etc...) but has not seriously challenged Canada's beloved programs (universal healthcare) or public attitudes (slight antipathy toward the United States, which he exploited with some success during the election). Despite what the facts suggest about the reality of the al-Qaeda-inspired terrorist cells, Canadians are likely to blame Ottawa's closer relationship with Washington under Harper for the newly exposed threat of Islamic terrorists in our midst. Contrary to the CW, Stephen Harper will have a very hard time expanding our commitments abroad or diminishing the light between Canada and American policies in the age of globalized terror. In politics, facts matter less than perceptions and it will be difficult to disabuse Canadians of the notion that we had a terrorist attack coming to us if we were so foolish to align ourselves with the United States. I hope Nason is right and I'm wrong, but only time will tell. A sober-minded analysis suggestions that it will be yours truly who will be correct. World Cup could cost English employers billions AFP reports that analysts at Brabners Chaffe Street have determined that if half of British employees spend just one hour a day watching soccer online, the British economy stands to lose four billion pounds. The same story reports that Mastercard has found that for every game that England plays, Brits who stay at home (opposed to those who made the trek to Germany) will spend 60 pounds, much to the delight of pubs and jersey retailers. No Gore in 2008 If you believe him, former vice president and 2000 Democratic presidential candidate Al Gore is not likely to run for president in 2008, choosing instead to frighten people about global warming. The semi-announcement ruins the only fun conservatives might have had in 2008 with a potential Gore vs. Hillary Rodham Clinton matchup for the Democratic presidential nomination. Joseph Biden vs. Clinton or Christopher Dodd vs. Clinton doesn't quite carry the same water. So instead of watching the blood spill in the Democratic primaries, conservatives will be deciding whether John McCain or Rudy Giuliani is the lesser evil. All of a sudden, Canadian politics looks a whole lot more interesting. New York's new outfielders New York Post sports columnist Joel Sherman says that there is every reason for New York baseball fans to be excited about their teams's outfield in the upcoming years with two great prospects making their way into the everyday lineup for the Yankees and Mets due to injuries suffered by the veterans. Sherman quotes Rick Downs, the Mets' hitting coach and former Yankee minor league instructor, a man with knowledge of both Melky Cabrera (Yanks) and Lastings Milledge (Mets). Downs says that both are great outfielders, slightly over-stating the case (they are very good first-year players who are very usable right now and have tremendous potential). Sherman notes, however, that Cabrera wasn't even listed among the Yankees's top 10 minor leaguers before the season started in Baseball America's prospects issue. All this adds to the usual hype of interleague play between the cross-town rivals when they play later this month. It should be fun and, with luck, the beginning of years of series between Melky and Lastings. Telegraph does not oppose human cloning The Daily Telegraph editorializes that there are good reasons for opposing human reproductive cloning and genetic alteration, but concludes that personal opposition or distaste to something is not reason enough to ban it: "What, then, should the law say? Should it allow for derogations from the general prohibition on human cloning for the specific purpose of screening for diseases? Should it override the public's distaste for the whole notion? Yes, it should. For, as we have argued time and again, there is a difference between disapproving of something and banning it. The fact that a new scientific process unnerves us so much is not sufficient grounds to prohibit it. Many will object to the idea of cloning human tissue, whether on grounds of religion or taste; and they will, of course, be free to shun the procedure. But others will see it as the one sure way to bring healthy children into the world; and the rest of us have no business impeding them." Lots there but I will only make three comments. 1) If human reproductive cloning is allowed to permit screening for disease, then there will be no reason to ban it for other reasons; it effectively opens Pandora's Box and reproductive cloning will be allowed for any reason. 2) Why does the line of argument that opposition to something should remain personal only apply to moral issues (and even then, not all of them: I oppose the killing of teachers but I don't think there should be a law preventing others from killing teachers, after all I don't want to impose my morality on others)? Why isn't the limitation of personal preference ever applied to dealing with climate change, dealing with health care policy, strictures on cruelty to animals or the application of seat belt laws or smoking bans? The Telegraph says, "Many will object to the idea of cloning human tissue, whether on grounds of religion or taste; and they will, of course, be free to shun the procedure." Substitute "torturing cats," "smoking in a restaurant," "buying private health insurance" or "killing my son's teacher" for the phrase "idea of cloning human tissue" and the sentence is just as true. 3) It is hard to imagine Martin Newland's/Lord Black's Telegraph taking this editorial position. Great analysis of Toronto Mayor McCheese Toronto Blue Lemons on David Miller: "The more I watch and listen to the Mayor, the more he reminds me of Paul Martin: seemingly intelligent until a listener actually tries to decipher what is being said; seemingly good natured until you see him dismiss or be rude to those who disagree with him; seemingly pro-action until you add up accomplishments and they weigh, well, nothing." Has anyone ever been so thoroughly described in one sentence? BTW, if you live or work in TO and rely on the TTC, there might be another illegal strike on Monday. Apparently having a left-wing mayor and city council doesn't bring labour peace. The media's political correctness & the Muzzie terrorists The Captain's Quarters notes that the Canadian Press went out of its way to describe the "'broad strata' of Canadian society" that the alleged jihadists came from. The esteemed national daily reported yesterday: "From an unmarried computer programmer to a university health sciences graduate and the unemployed, the 17 suspects charged in a foiled terrorist plot represent a 'broad strata' of Canadian society. 'Some are students, some are employed, some are unemployed, RCMP assistant Commissioner Mike McDonell said Saturday..." Later the paper noted that many of the arrested suspected terrorists "sported the traditional Muslim male beard." Wonder why? Might it be because they are ... Muslims? When the media's political correctness buries until the six paragraph any hint of the ethnicity or religion of the suspected terrorists, and then only after noting that the suspected terrorists were wearing street clothes or white jump suits, they are not merely being polite -- they are participating in a cover-up. Canadians should be vigilant, look out for suspicious-looking people who might commit terrorist acts, presumably young men wearing white jump suits; their ethnicity or religion is irrelevant. Mighty fine journalism from Mark Steyn Good reporting lets you know what's happening in the world and good opinion writing puts what is being reported in perspective. Mark Steyn is the master of the latter. Here he is in today's Chicago Sun-Times: "Here are a couple of observations from two parents of American heroes fallen in Iraq. The first is from Cindy Sheehan, the mother of Army Spec. Casey Sheehan, a brave man who enlisted in 2000, re-upped for a second tour and died in 2005 after volunteering for a rescue mission in Sadr City: 'We've been talking about Martin Luther King Jr. this night. My son was killed the same day he was killed, on April 4. I don't believe in any coincidences. Casey was born on John F. Kennedy's birthday. He was born on the day, and died on the day, of two people who were assassinated by the war machine in my country.' The second observation is from Martin Terrazas, the father of Marine Lance Cpl. Miguel Terrazas of El Paso, who was killed by a roadside bomb at a town called Haditha: 'I don't even listen to the news.' The New York Times' Maureen Dowd, the Pulitzer Prize-winning columnist of the most important newspaper in America (well, OK, the most self-important newspaper in America), has written that 'the moral authority of parents who bury children killed in Iraq is absolute.' She wrote this in a column about Sheehan. She doesn't seem to have found the time to write any columns about any other parents of fallen soldiers and their absolute moral authority. Elizabeth Edwards, the wife of 'moderate' 'mainstream' Democratic Party vice presidential nominee John Edwards, sent out a letter headlined: 'Support Cindy Sheehan's Right To Be Heard.' Mrs. Sheehan doesn't have much difficulty being heard. The remarks above were made a week ago at a meeting in Melbourne. That's to say, dozens of organizations pay to fly her around the United States and Canada and over to Britain and Europe and all the way to Australia to ensure her 'right to be heard,' now and forever. She is the subject of a forthcoming movie, in which she will be played by Susan Sarandon. But I would hazard that Martin Terrazas is far more typical of the families of American forces in Iraq: A man who can't bear to pick up an American newspaper, or listen to a radio news bulletin, or watch a political talk show, because every square peg of an event is being hammered into the round hole of the same narrative, the only narrative our culture knows: This is Vietnam, it's a quagmire, we can't win, and the longer we delay losing and scuttling and getting the hell outta there, the more wicked things we will do. And, lookie here, whaddaya know, here comes the Sunni version of the My Lai massacre." Yankee notes The New York Yankees are getting their behind served to them (a saying I once heard listening to a Detroit Tigers game on the radio) by the Baltimore Orioles; it's 10-0 in th sixth. So let's talk about their month of May: 18-10, won three in a row against the team with the best record in the Majors (the Tigers), witnessed some comprehensively awful pitching from Randy Johnson (3-2, 6.62 ERA in 32.3 IP) and Aaron Small (0-2, 7.78 ERA in 19.7 IP), suffered numerous injuries and relied on value-level replacement players at half the positions at times. And they were 18-10. Why? Part of it is their pitching which is better than most people think and it is anchored by two stars: Mike Mussina (3-0, 2.53 ERA) and Mariano Rivera (7 saves, 3-1 record, 1.53 ERA). Alex Rodriguez can hit: 330/416/615. So can Jorge Posada, the catcher that Joe Torre has never really liked (323/429/565 in just 77 at-bats due to injuries). But also the contributions of call-ups, has-beens and never-have-beens: OF Melky Cabrera (318/392/394), DH/OF Bernie Williams (301/353/409) and 1B Andy Phillips (306/333/389). There's not a lot of power there, but there are a lot of singles and with Cabrera some patience at the plate. I've been harsh on Williams and I don't think he can maintain his (for him) torrid pace, but as I've said before, the Yankees find a way to win when they need to (down by 10 is it possible today?) and often from unlikely sources. Steven Goldman at the YES Network's Pinstriped Blog has some perspective for those who want to hoist Williams on top their shoulders for keeping the Yankees championship dreams alive: "Overall, American League right fielders are batting .291/.351/.492. If you want to rate Williams as a designated hitter, then you have to rate him against hitters batting .256/.346/.463. Heck, the league as a whole is batting .271/.338/.433. Given the positions that he's playing, even his "hot" production doesn't make the Yankees competitive. That's not to dismiss what Williams has done, because if not for the hitting he did do, the Yankees would have been in real trouble. That's keeping the Yankees off the floor, not pushing them toward a championship." (Many of the stats were gleaned from the month in review by The Blog That Derek Built.) Saturday, June 03, 2006
Quotidian "You know, when I first started in journalism I used to think that foreign correspondents spoke every language under the sun and spent their lives studying international conditions. Brother, look at us! On Monday afternoon I was in East Sheen breaking the news to a widow of her husband's death leap with a champion girl cyclist -- the wrong widow as it turned out; the husband came back from business while I was there and cut up very nasty. Next day the Chief has me in and says, 'Corker, you're off to Ishmaelia.' 'Out of town job?' I asked. 'East Africa,' he said, just like that, 'pack your traps.' 'What's the story?' I asked. 'Well,' he said, 'a lot of niggers are having a war. I don't see anything in it myself, but the other agencies are sending feature men, so we've got to do something. We want spot news,' he said, 'and some colour stories. Go easy on the expenses.' 'What are they having a war about?' I asked. 'That's for you to find out,' he said, but I haven't found out yet." -- Corker in Evelyn Waugh's Scoop Throw in the wife who cooks and you got a deal The Daily Telegraph reports that California real estate company Centex homes hire "teams of actors to play 'happy families' in its show homes" to give the houses some "soul" and "heart." Brilliant, but wierd. Great teams find ways to win The New York Yankees may have blown their 5-3 lead (by keeping Randy Johnson in for the beginning of the eighth inning), but they still beat the Baltimore Orioles in extra innings. For the tenth straight game, the Bronx Bombers have had at least 10 hits. For the whatever consecutive game, at least one vital player was scratched (Jason Giambi and Mariano Rivera). And sub-par players like Bernie Williams (3 RBIs) and Andy Phillips (a go-ahead homer in the seventh) seem to deliver when the stars are missing. Hollywood south Reuters reports: "Signaling from a director's chair, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez inaugurated a film studio complex on Saturday on the outskirts of Caracas to counter the cultural 'dictatorship' of Hollywood movie giants." Most riveting crime novels: P.D. James The list is in the weekend Wall Street Journal: 1. "Tragedy at Law" by Cyril Hare (Harcourt, Brace, 1943 2. "The Franchise Affair" by Josephine Tey (MacMillan, 1949) 3. "The Moving Toyshop" by Edmund Crispin (Lippincott, 1946) 4. "Murder Must Advertise" by Dorothy L. Sayers (Harcourt, Brace, 1933) 5. "Dissolution" by C.J. Sansom (Viking, 2003) It is noteworthy that only one of the five was published after 1949. Of course, Ms. James would not include her own fine novels among the list although several could easily be put there. Friday, June 02, 2006
Quotidian "I'm not sure he was really meant by nature to be quite so good. It's like the new edition of an old book that one has been fond of -- revised and amended, brought up to date, but not quite the thing that he once knew and loved." -- Little Bilham in Henry James's The Ambassadors Anything possible in 2008 -- but Dodd? David Lightman, Washington bureau chief for the Hartford Courant, wrote earlier this week that because perhaps more than 20 candidates for president are "actively considering a run" -- "far more than at any time since World War II" -- and none "considered a shoo-in" (tell that to Hillary Rodham Clinton and John McCain), pundits and possible opponents should not dismiss the long-shot candidacy of Senator Christopher Dodd (R, CT) who is apparently seriously considering a run for the Democratic nomination if he can get the money. The New York Sun (sorry but the story is available only to subscribers) says that Dodd pins that dollar amount at $50 million. I don't care if Dodd raises $500 million, it is hard to see him as a credible candidate for the Democratic nomination. Perhaps he is just bored being a five-term senator from Connecticut. Giving Cameron another chance Andrew Gimson writes in the Daily Telegraph about how UK Tory leader David Cameron might be conservative enough: "But the happiness speech was nothing like as bad as it sounded in the summaries that were made of it. Mr Cameron quoted Burke, who said that politicians 'ought to know what belongs to laws, and what manners alone can regulate. To these, great politicians may give a leaning, but they cannot give a law'. There is a kind of humility in this, a recognition that, although politicians have a part to play in our national conversation, they cannot just tell us what to do, let alone do it for us. Journalists are as inclined as anyone to look to government for easy solutions. If Mr Cameron responds in the words of the 19th-century Russian thinker Alexander Herzen and tells us that, on the whole, modern man has no solutions, he will immediately sound more credible than the quacks who offer cures for everything. I am not suggesting that we should get carried away on a tide of pro-Cameron hysteria. But if he indicates that he is in favour of limited government, and of our nation state as the best means of reconciling liberty and order, he may, despite his juvenile optimism, turn out to be a less objectionable figure than Mr Blair..." Great quote on gun control "Gun Control: The theory that a woman found dead in an alley, raped and strangled with her panty hose, is somehow morally superior to a woman explaining to police how her attacker got that fatal bullet wound." -- Found on the WAGC website via Samizdata This hurts II The New York Yankees continue to suffer injuries and aches: Gary Sheffield is back on the DL, Mariano Rivera hurt his back getting dressed and Derek Jeter was rested just to be safe. This happens when you build a team almost exclusively on veterans; the team has the highest average age in baseball -- for the second year in a row. They missed Rivera when Kyle Farnsworth blew a save against the Detroit Tigers last night and the Yanks missing the opportunity to sweep the best team in baseball in a four-game series. But with all the injuries, and despite playing worse-than-average players (Miguel Cairo, Kelly Stinnett, Bernie Williams, Andy Phillips), the team has at least ten hits in each of their last eight games. This hurts Knew this was going to happen but Andriy Shevchenko, the best striker in the world, leaves AC Milan for Chelsea. The British side paid 30 million pounds for the Ukrainian star who wanted to raise his son in an English-speaking nation. Will Chelsea be stoppable? They have won two Premier League championships but have come short of their ultimate goal, the Champions League. Expectations are high. But they may not be done: Rumour has it that Brazilian and Real Madrid defender Roberto Carlos is next on Roman Abramovich's wish list. The team has already acquired German midfielder Michael Ballack from Bayern Munich and rising star, Ivory Coast forward Salomon Kalou from Feyenoord; last year, it acquired Ghanaian midfielder Michael Essien from Lyon. Add that to Frank Lampard, Didier Drogba and William Gallas, and it is hard to see how anyone can beat them. But, recall last September and the same predictions were being made and Chelsea had a scare in the Premier League near the end as a hot Manchester United made it closer than expected and the team failed to make the final four in Europe. Milan, on the other hands, desperately needs some help. Thursday, June 01, 2006
Quotidian "The survival of democracy depends on the ability of large numbers of people to make realistic choices in the light of adequate information." -- Aldous Huxley, "The Arts of Selling," in Brave New World Revisited Happy hurricane season Today officially begins Hurrican season so Mother Nature can now pelt the southeastern United States because the calender has given her permission to. No doubt the climate fear-mongers will use a big bad hurricane or two to tsk, tsk mankind for global warming. The Cato Institute helpfully put up piece by Patrick J. Michaels from last October to remind us that man is not responsible for everything: "Just a year ago, two of my scientific colleagues made headlines by running a computer model showing that, by 2080, hurricanes would increase in maximum wind speed by 6 percent and precipitation rate by 18 percent. In the model, 55 percent of the intensity variation of hurricanes was related to warming sea-surface temperatures. Rather than use a computer model, I checked the actual relationship between sea temperatures and hurricane intensity in recent decades — a period of global warming. In reality (as opposed to the virtual reality of the computer), only 10 percent of storm-to-storm variation in intensity is related to sea surface temperatures. Ninety percent is due to other factors, such as El Niño, (a warm current of water). Some of these factors are actually less favorable to hurricanes in a warmer world. Almost all severe hurricanes must experience water of 82 degrees sometime in their life cycle. Oddly enough, there is no relationship between more intense hurricanes and ocean surface temperature once this threshold is reached." Blogs and politics I have repeatedly stated here that the impact of blogging on politics is less than clear and the effect on voters even muddier. To rehash: blogs are read by people intensely interested in politics -- journalists, some politicians and more of their staff, staffers, political junkies, etc... -- and can affect the news cycle but are seldom read by voters. USA Today has a neat little story on Congressional blogs (and other e-communications) and I found this tidbit interesting: "It is unclear whether the new electronic communication methods are effective. Some, like House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., blog mostly to journalists, legislative staffers and other liberal sites. Rep. Jack Kingston, R-Ga., has a blog and an audio 'JackCast' that goes to conservative websites and radio stations, and can be downloaded on iTunes. 'I don't know where (hits) are coming from — probably not the 1st District of Georgia,' says Kingston, vice chairman of the House Republican Conference. 'One of the downsides of the blog is you don't know who you're talking to'." Of course, Congressman (and MPs) have no idea if a column penned for the local paper is being read. But the point is that even the blogging Congressman is pretty sure that his constituents are reading him. And as University of Virginia political scientist Larry Sabato, who doubts there is much public interest in them, says: "Anybody who downloads these people onto their iPods needs medical help." Conservative government, yes; Conservative majority, no That's what the Canadian Press and a Decima poll say. But is that true? While Decima found that 43% of Canadians want a Conservative government, only three in ten want Stephen Harper to lead a majority government. Furthermore, the poll found that the Tories enjoy 38% support. Who are the 5% that does not support the Conservatives but want them to form a minority government? And are there really 8% who support the Tories but want only a minority Conservative government? Perhaps the better question, though, is do these numbers matter? Do people (or enough people) really vote with a particular desirable outcome in mind or do they vote for the leader/party/candidate that they think is the best regardless of the possible election result? In other words, if a voter thinks Stephen Harper or the Conservatives or the local Conservative candidate deserves to be elected, does it matter to the voter what the makeup of Parliament will be? My guess is that for a very small portion of the population, it would, but not for enough of them to make a difference. In all likelihood, the polling results reflect a desire by respondents to appear sophisticated -- whether to the pollster or themselves is unclear -- and is not indicative of voting intention. Volpegate Add the "gate" when the outrage exceeds the wrong. Neither Joe Volpe nor his young donors broke the law. Anyway, the law restricting political donations is stupid so anything that exposes the silliness of said law is welcome. That said, there will be political consequences. As Adam Daifallah noted: "What Apotex did is perfectly legal. But in politics, as we know, perception is reality. And the perception here is awfully bad." Blog on the next UNSG There is a blog dedicated to the exciting issue of who will be the next UN Secretary General. Suzanne Nossel, a non-resident fellow at the Security and Peace Initiative and founder of the Democracy Arsenal blog, has a thoughtful post on 10 attributes that the next SG should have; some are more important (strong manager, charismatic leader, visionary, respected in the developing world, not unAmerican) than others (being Asian). |