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Comments on politics, the culture, economics, and sports by Paul Tuns.
I am editor-in-chief of "The Interim," Canada's life and family newspaper, and author of "Jean Chretien: A Legacy of Scandal" (2004) and "The Dauphin: The Truth about Justin Trudeau" (2015).
I am some combination of conservative/libertarian, standing athwart history yelling "bullshit!"
You can follow me on Twitter (@ptuns).
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Sunday, June 27, 2010
Saturday, June 26, 2010
Weekend stuff 1. The Boston Globe's The Big Picture blog has 46 photos from the Korean War. I especially liked 9, 14, 21, 22, 28, 36, 40, 44. 2. The Wall Street Journal on 3-D TV. 3. Listverse has the "Top 10 Museums that will Scare You Silly," although some don't sound that scary at all. 4. Wired's DangerRoom blog reports, "Military Mulls New Name for Psychological Operations: MISO" That would be short for "Military Information Support and/to Operations." 5. New Scientist explores whether digital books might get kids reading again. 6. Because a graph is worth a thousand words: Indexed illustrates how "long buried land mines" are like "the music industry today." And GraphJam has "The Vuvuzela Explained." 7. Fake political ad is the truest political advertisement you'll ever see: World Cup predictions (Round of 16) Saturday, June 26 Uruguay 3, South Korea 1 It is quite something that out of this bracket, one of the following teams will be in the final four: Uruguay, South Korea, USA, Ghana. The winner of this contest would probably outclass the winner of USA-Ghana, and Uruguay's scoring prowess is the best among the group. South Korea could be hard-pressed to stop Diego Forlan, who is making a strong case for tournament MVP and Golden Boot candidate if his team can make a bit of a run, and Luis Suarez. They could really beat up on goalkeeper Jung Sung-ryong who has looked quite shaky at times -- the only team to surrender more goals than South Korea's six was North Korea (12). Uruguayan goalkeeper Fernando Muslera hasn't allowed a goal, but I guess you have to give the defense some credit for those clean sheets by minimizing the scoring opportunities. South Korea has the players to threaten (Park Ji-sung, Lee Chung-yong and Park Chu-young), but Uruguay has the ability to step up their game and overcome a deficit. Ghana 2, USA 1 USA plays with a lot of heart, while Ghana does not relent in attacking the net. The trio of Landon Donovan, Clint Dempsey and Jozy Altidore is pretty exciting to watch on the run and they certainly can threaten when they break through but the American midfield doesn't control the ball well and their defense has looked terrible most of the time. Ghana has the opposite problem, with great playmaking but little finish. Andre Ayew and Kwadwo Asamoah will feed the ball to Asamoah Gyan who gets his chances but doesn't capitalize on them; Ghana advanced to the Round of 16 despite scoring a mere two goals -- both on penalty kicks -- in the opening three games, tied for the fewest among the final 16 (with England). The Ghana defense has been strong for an African team -- two goals allowed in three games. I think the Black Stars will effectively be the home team favourite and continue to carry all of Africa's soccer hopes to at least the next round. Sunday, June 27 Germany 2, England 0 England is a bit lucky to be here despite some fairly decent defense which allowed just one goal, the bubble by 'keeper Robert Green against USA in the opener. But keeping clean sheets against Slovenia and Algeria isn't that much of an accomplishment. Worryingly for English fans, they scored just two goals, including being shutout by the Algerians. The Germans will be much more formidable opponents, even without midfielder Bastian Schweinsteiger, who could miss the game with a thigh injury. While Schweinsteiger provides quick sprints up the side, dangerous crosses from the wings, and threatening penetration up the middle, the Germans have alternatives, notably Thomas Mueller and Mesut Oezil, the young guns who have each scored a goal. Wayne Rooney's frustrations are getting the better of him, even with Jermain Defoe now playing behind him to create more opportunities. Germans are the much better team, an impressive mix of veterans and youth, that could go all the way and certainly won't be seriously challenged until the quarter-finals, presumably by Argentina. Argentina 2, Mexico 0 Mexico has played wonderfully, changing up their tactics and passing precisely. They play a good game on both sides of the field and facing most other teams, they would have a fighting chance, but Argentina is one of the three most talented teams in this World Cup. Their attack is relentless, with three forwards being fed balls up the wings. The goal-less Lionel Messi has created numerous opportunities with several team-mates' goals coming off his passes or dispatches of his rebounds. The Argentine defense isn't the strength of the team, but defensive midfielder Javier Mascherano plays a strong supporting role. Argentina will probably control the pace and possession of the game and prevent Mexico the chance to get into the game. Monday, June 28 Netherlands 3, Slovakia 1 It is dangerous to take Slovakia lightly considering how impressively they played most of their match with Italy, and at times the Netherlands seems sluggish, but their defense has been better than expected and the offense is potentially lethal even if he haven't seen the best of it in the early part of these games. The team turns it up a notch when forward Eljero Elia and winger Ibrahim Afellay come off the bench. Arjen Robben probably won't start, but he'll be a dangerous weapon off the bench, too, when the Slovakian defenders will have tired. Robin van Persie would be better if he had a little less confidence in his ability to get everything done on his own. The wide open style of play on the Dutch side permits the Slovakians to score. Brasil 2, Chile 1 Chile has a quick and creative offense, but it won't be able to beat the Brazilian defense which has become the strength of this team. With Robinho, Kaka, and Luis Fabiano, there is no shortage of ways for Brasil to score on the counter-attack. Tuesday, June 29 Paraguay 3, Japan 2 (extra time) Japan has played more impressively than Paraguay thus far. In its 1-1 tie with Italy, Paraguay managed one shot on target. Against New Zealand, all they could muster was a 0-0 draw. Japan, on the other hand, has played energetic soccer, with quick runs that force opposing defenses to be honest, and a defense with man-to-man marking that wears down opponents. Paraguay is probably the better of the two teams, but not good enough to break away from the Blue Samurai during regulation time. Japan's style will tire them down and decrease their effectiveness in extra time where defenders won't have the energy to shadow opponents for 120 minutes or to race down the field in search of balls booted far distances. Paraguay takes advantage and wins in extra time, or if necessary, the shootout. Spain 2, Portugal 1 I won't be surprised if either team ekes out a win or blows out their opponent. Both teams have the players to break open a game with multiple goals. I have to give it to Spain with its midfield that includes Andres Iniesta, Xavi, Xabi Alonso and forwards David Villa and Fernando Torres. Cristian Ronaldo hasn't been the superstar Portugal needs him to be and despite the seven-goal outburst against North Korea -- which were their only seven goals of the first round of the tournament -- doesn't have a dependable goal-scoring striker. Spanish ace in the hole: Iker Casillas, one of the best goalkeepers in the world. What to do to create jobs There is a symposium at the New York Times about what can be done to increase employment in the United States. James K. Galbraith suggests government banking institutions lend more money and that all levels of government increase funding for government jobs (teachers to police, doctors to street cleaners). Jeffrey Miron offers the predictable libertarian proposals of slashing taxes, rethinking entitlements and pro-union policies, and generally having "less policy." Just as predictably, Heather Boushey, senior economist with the Center for American Progress, answers with the baffling suggestion that unemployment benefits be extended. None of these really get to the heart of the matter, being favourite hobby-horses whether unemployment is a problem or not. (For the record, I agree with Miron's policy proposals but other than his gloss over cutting the federal minimum wage, none really address the questions posed by the NYT: "So what’s left in the job creation arsenal? What can President Obama do to put more people to work?" Tyler Cowen, on the other hand, says that "Stimulus alone won’t give those workers jobs because, as it stands now, their labor simply isn’t worth very much." Government should therefore reduce the minimum wage and cut payroll taxes. If there isn't enough employment it is probably because it costs too much; reduce the costs of hiring workers and employment will be increased. The economics is simple, but there will be little political will to do what's necessary. Toronto or Detroit? Where is this picture from? A friend of mine likes to chronicle urban decay, so he goes to Rochester and Boston, Buffalo and Detroit to take photos of dilapidated and abandoned buildings or crumbling infrastructure. This looks like many pictures he's taken in formerly great American cities, but it is in fact taken from midtown Toronto (Bathurst and St. Clair, near one of the city's finest private schools).  Friday, June 25, 2010
World Cup recap (day 14) Ivory Coast beat North Korea 3-0. I got the margin of victory correct, predicting the Africa side to win 4-1. The Ivory Coast came out in the first half determined to make up the eight-goal goal differential with Portugal -- they got within five yards of goal for their first shot within 60 seconds -- and dominated with 12 shots (compared to three for North Korea), nine of them in the penalty area before the half-time whistle. For the game, Les Elephantes out-shot the Koreans 24-9, with few genuine chances by the Asian side. Game grade: B+ Brasil and Portugal played to a nil-nil tie; I thought the South Americans would beat the Europeans 2-1. The first half had its moments with both sides trying to get the lead and win the game. But after half-time, it seemed both coaches decided to play it safe and not a lot happened. Game grade: C- Got it exactly correct: Spain beat Chile 2-1. Both Spain and Chile played attacking soccer early and it promised to be a great game, but Chile soon started playing it safe, as did the Spanish side after it built a first-half 2-0 lead. Chile scored two minutes into the second half. Unfortunately for Chile, midfielder Marco Estrada was the victim of a bad call and a second yellow card after getting tangled with Fernando Torres. Once up a player and with a two-goal advantage, Spain just toyed with Chile for the rest of the game. David Villa scored a beautiful goal, but Torres continues to be a concern by failing to produce anything but shots that sail over or wide of the net. Game grade: C+ Switzerland and Honduras played to a nil-nil draw, but I predicted the Swiss would somehow find a way to get a goal. Honduras got better as the game progressed and they got to the Switzerland net plenty of times (18 shots but only serious scoring threat) taking advantage of the Swiss wide open defense as the European side desperately looked to create a goal. But generally it was a dullish game with little skill on display. Game grade: D- Lotteries are taxes on stupid people From Yahoo! Canada News: When you're standing in line today to buy your Lotto Max ticket, consider this: Your chances of dying in a plane crash are almost three times better than winning the $50-million jackpot or one of the 55 separate million-dollar prizes.And then there's this: "You have to be in it to win it," says B.C. Lottery Corp.'s Trevor Miller. "For a lot of people it's entertainment. Part of the fun of buying a lottery ticket is dreaming of how you would spend that $50 million."Pay the government to dream -- that's quite the racket the state has there. If private enterprise preyed on the dim-witted the same way, government would be up in arms. Robson on McCrystal Ottawa Citizen columnist John Robson agrees with General Stanley McCrystal and his subordinates about President Barack Obama, but of course a columnist can say those things and the General, a subordinate of the President, cannot. However, as Robson notes, even in firing the General, the President confirms that his (the General's) assessment of the Command-in-Chief (that's the President) being a wimp, is essentially correct: The most disturbing part of the White House reaction is that President Obama, and Defence Secretary Robert Gates, repeated the psychobabble charge of "poor judgment." What the general showed, unmistakably, was insubordination. But the president's first instinct was not a severe yet dignified reproach. It was a big dollop of lukewarm PR pablum: "Whatever decision that I make with respect to Gen. McChrystal, or any other aspect of Afghan policy, is determined entirely on how I can make sure that we have a strategy that justifies the enormous courage and sacrifice that those men and women are making over there, and that ultimately makes this country safer." He needed focused outrage at insolence toward the office of Commander in Chief, not soothing vacuity. World Cup (day 15 predictions) Ivory Coast 4, North Korea 1 Ivory Coast can only advance if they win, Portugal loses, and Les Elephantes somehow manage to overcome the massive goal differential Portugal racked up in beating North Korea 7-0 on Monday. It is highly unlikely, but with Didier Drogba and Salomon Kalou leading the charge, they'll go for it. But going for it leaves them open to North Korea's counter-attack which should come up with something. Brasil 2, Portugal 1 Brasil wins Group G with a win or a tie, while Portugal will vault to the top of the standings with a win. With their lop-sided victory against North Korea, Portugal is a relatively safe bet to advance even if they lose. Both teams have a lot of talent that there should be a lot of action despite the lack of serious stakes. I detest both these teams and wouldn't mind a meteor falling out of the sky to eliminate both squads at once. Spain 2, Chile 1 Both have pretty offenses and Spain (somewhat surprisingly) needs a win to vault to the top of Group H and escape a Round of 16 meeting with (presumably) Brasil. Chilean goalkeeper Claudio Bravo hasn't allowed a goal, but he hasn't really been tested by either Honduras or Switzerland. Chile's defense isn't good enough to contain the combination of David Villa and Fernando Torres. If those two can't find the net, Spain is in danger of an early exit with a loss, but I think the team will play with enough sense of urgency that scoring won't be a problem. Switzerland 1, Honduras 0 Both teams have a path to the Round of 16 so both have a lot to play for. I just don't like either team's chances to score, especially with Swiss veteran forward Alexander Frei and striker Striker Eren Derdiyok both nursing injuries. Ultimately, however, Switzerland is the better squad and they'll find a way to win. If they win by two goals, they advance regardless of Spain's result, but a pair will be too much for them. World Cup recap (day 14) Slovakia beat Italy 3-2; I thought the Azzurri would win 2-0. The Italy-Slovakia game was mostly dreary in the first half with just two or three real chances and only one shot on target (which went in for goal for Slovakia). It was much more back and forth with real scoring opportunities in the second half. At the 66th minute, the Italians appeared to have scored but a defender booted the ball out of net as it was crossing the line; video replays were inconclusive but it did appear that the ball broke the plain of the net and should have been a goal. The Azzurri had more scoring chances once they brought Andrea Pirlo into the game at the 56th minute. They scored at the 81st minute and with less than ten minutes remaining had a goal recalled because of an off-side -- it could have been tied 2-2 with minutes remaining. Slovakia made it 3-1 with a minute left in regulation time and Italy scored a minute later, making it 3-2. And critics of soccer say it is boring because there aren't goals. With four minutes of injury time, Italy continued to press but for naught. Italy is out of the World Cup and Slovakia advances to meet the Netherlands in the Round of 16. Game grade: A- Paraguay and New Zealand played to a nil-nil draw. I got the result, but not the score correct (0-0). Paraguay dominated the first half but was unable to get a close shot -- all seven of their attempts were from outside the penalty area. They were clearly playing a safe game for the tie. Paraguay wins Group F. Game grade: F Japan beat Denmark 3-1 to go on to the Round of 16. I predicted a 1-1 tie. The Blue Samurai scored twice off free kicks but repeatedly attacked the net with speedy runs. The first free kick was from at least 30 yards out and the Danish 'keeper didn't appear to expect Keisuke Honda's laser shot directly on net. The Danes had a few missed opportunities, including a penalty kick that was shot directly at goalkeeper Eiji Kawashima, who easily saved it. Both teams came out to score, with Japan going for a win even though a tie would suffice. There were an astounding 17 shots on target (10 for Japan), and a good pace and back-and-forth flow to the game. I thought this match would be boring, with few scoring chances. I was wrong. Game grade: A+ I haven't watched the Netherlands-Cameroon game and don't know the score. I'm watching it later On Demand. Thursday, June 24, 2010
Midweek stuff 1. This is an old (September 2009) but excellent article at Science Daily on the evolution of carnivorous plants. 2. From Slate: "Pick up just about any novel and you'll find a throwaway reference to a dog, barking in the distance." 3. "Robert Rodriguez's Ten Minute Film School." (HT: Newmark's Door) 4. I don't know how I came across this product: P-Mate. Allows women to urinate standing up (into a cardboard contraption). 5. The Wall Street Journal on the clothes of Mad Men. (HT: Boing Boing) 6. The 2009 U.S. "Time Use Survey." 7. From Onion TV: "Boston Globe Tailors Print Edition For Three Remaining Subscribers" Boston Globe Tailors Print Edition For Three Remaining Subscribers About AA From Wired: "Secret of AA: After 75 Years, We Don’t Know How It Works." It is a long, thorough and interesting article. A snippet: What we do know, however, is that despite all we’ve learned over the past few decades about psychology, neurology, and human behavior, contemporary medicine has yet to devise anything that works markedly better. “In my 20 years of treating addicts, I’ve never seen anything else that comes close to the 12 steps,” says Drew Pinsky, the addiction-medicine specialist who hosts VH1’s Celebrity Rehab. “In my world, if someone says they don’t want to do the 12 steps, I know they aren’t going to get better.” Will on McChrystal George Will's explains why General Stanley McChrystal has to go -- he ain't suited for the political job of heading the Afghan mission: It may be said that McChrystal's defect is only a deficit of political acumen. Only? Again, the mission in Afghanistan is much more political than military. Counterinsurgency, as defined by McChrystal's successor, Gen. David Petraeus, and tepidly embraced by Barack Obama for a year or so, does not just involve nation-building, it is nation-building.And Will explains why McChrystal did what he did: It is difficult, and perhaps unwise, to suppress this thought: McChrystal's disrespectful flippancies, and the chorus of equally disdainful comments from the unpleasant subordinates he has chosen to have around him, emanate from the toxic conditions that result when the military's can-do culture collides with a cannot-be-done assignment. In this toxicity, Afghanistan is Vietnam redux. World Cup (day 14 predictions) Japan 1, Denmark 1 The winner goes on to the next round, but in the case of a tie, the Blue Samurais will advance because of their better goal differential. Both are slightly better on defense and need a little luck on offense. This contest is truly a coin flip and because I'm too lazy to flip a coin, I declare this match a tie. Netherlands 2, Cameroon 1 Coach Bert van Marwijk will give some of his subs and bench players a chance to prove their stuff and will probably give a look at winger Arjen Robben to see how healthy he is. That doesn't mean Cameroon will have an easier time because the Dutch subs have been spectacular off the bench so far and provide an extra spark for the offense. And, of course, Robben, when healthy, is one of the best wingers in the world. I understand that Cameroon has something to prove, but there is a reason they have a pair of losses; they may want to prove they aren't doormats, but that will not be easy. They've played sub-par soccer this World Cup and there is no reason to think that will change today. Italy 2, Slovakia 0 Italian goalkeepers have yet to make a save this World Cup: both Paraguay and New Zealand had one shot on target and each time they scored. The Italian offense has lacked any imagination. They needed a penalty kick to tie New Zealand. Andrea Pirlo isn't 100% healthy but might be called into action to salvage Italy's World Cup hopes. (Reports say he won't start, that is for sure.) Midfielder Vincenzo Iaquinta, his game-tying penalty kick, notwithstanding, has been middling. Striker Alberta Gildardino has merely planted himself in front of the net and waited for balls to come to him; he needs to do more to create scoring opportunities. I'm not entirely confidant that the Azzurri can put their scoring together, but Slovakia has played horrendous soccer so far and once they fall behind they'll open themselves up a little too much as they try to get an equalizer and the Italians will be able to exploit that and grow their lead. Paraguay 1, New Zealand 1 The Kiwi defense is much better than it was in 1982 -- its only other World Cup appearance, when they allowed a dozen goals -- but they don't have the offense to produce victories. It is possible, but unlikely for them to advance to the next round with a third tie, but a victory would put them in a much better position. Paraguay has produced the only win so far in Group F, but they could secure a second through a combination of a potentially useful offense and New Zealand's lack of one. I don't expect much excitement in this game; Paraguay can afford to play it safe and takes the tie. Wednesday, June 23, 2010
World Cup (day 13 recap) I was exactly right: America 1, Algeria 0. I also predicted the Americans would squeak by, which was also exactly right. Early in the game, the Americans scored a goal that was recalled because the player was off-side -- the second time its happened to the American this tournament. They didn't score until the 91st minute in a game that was fairly back and forth but lack much excitement. Game grade: C+ England ekes past Slovenia 1-0; I predicted the English would win 2-1. The English side benefited from Jermain Defoe's presence which initially added a spark to the team's anemic offense. They scored an early goal and it felt like they were going to score a bunch and indeed great goaltending by Samir Handanovic kept the Slovenian side in the contest. But after the first 15-20 minutes, the game became rather dreary. The Slovenians missed three chances in a row at the 67th minute that would have been the equalizer. Neither side appeared to play with a sense of urgency, which is strange because Slovenia likely needed points (at least a tie) to make the Round of 16. Game grade: D Well, I was completely wrong about Serbia and Australia, predicting the Serbs winning 2-0. In fact, Australia won 2-1. Serbia played extremely well in the first 45 minutes and should feel robbed that they hadn't built some kind of lead going into half-time. But they looked tired in the second half and Australia got its stride, peppering Vladimir Stojkovic with shot after shot. Brett Holman's 73rd minute goal was a laser of a shot. Serbia got their second legs in the final 20 minutes, scored in the 84th minute to narrow the gap and got three shots off from within the penalty area in injury time. While neither's performance was very even, both played with a lot of heart. Game grade: A- Germany edged Ghana 1-0; I thought they'd win 3-1. Ghana's Richard Kingson made an incredible save inside the first half hour to prevent the Germans from gaining an early lead. Germany didn't score until the 60th minute on what was clearly its best chance. Ghana played relatively safe and they didn't give their opponents many good chances to score. Indeed, the Black Stars (Ghana) out-shot Germany 17-13 and was fairly close in shots on target (6-5 in favour of the European side). A quartet of Black Stars had good chances (Asamoah Gyan, Kwadwo Asamoah, Prince Tagoe, Kevin-Prince Boateng) and most of the credit for the three points has to go to goalkeeper Manuel Neuer. The match had its scoring chances, but neither team was on top of its game with a real lack of finish on opportunities to put the ball into the net. Game grade: B- (on a curve because Germany was playing for its tournament life). American consumers face higher prices to protect 200 Indiana jobs The Washington Post reports that Chinese-made ironing boards are taxed (a tariff is a tax) up to 157% to help protect the 200 ironing board workers at an Indiana factory the last of their kind in America. So to protect a handful of factory jobs in the United States, all Americans are forced to pay higher prices for foreign-made ironing boards. The Post reports that the workers appreciate the government intervention: "American consumers don't benefit from the Chinese prices -- they certainly don't if they don't have a job," said Terry Roll, 52, the day shift supervisor. "They need to do something to save jobs."Roll, like nearly every politician and most people in general, thinks that the market exists to create jobs, but actually it exists to provide people with goods and services; jobs are coincidental. 'The Closing of the Mulsim Mind' Joseph Sobran reviews Robert R. Reilly’s The Closing of the Muslim Mind: How Intellectual Suicide Created the Modern Islamist in his column today. Sobran writes: The primal Muslim error about God’s nature has led, Reilly argues, to a deep stultification of Arab culture for roughly the last millennium. He cites Hilaire Belloc’s 1938 prediction that the Muslim world would once more surpass Christendom, if only it adopted Western technology. But Reilly’s own argument makes this hard to believe: Islam’s long hostility to reason has turned it into a virtual superstition, impenetrable to the practical and theoretical science that the fulfillment of Belloc’s prophecy would require. You can’t very well build modern weaponry if you don’t believe in efficient causes. Islam seems doomed to remain backward and futile, dissipating its energy in bursts of violence and hysteria.And because of this, Sobran says we have little to worry about because Muslims therefore can't be much of a threat -- O'Reilly's book makes him "more doubtful than ever that Islam can ever pose a serious threat to the West, any more than numerology can threaten calculus." Except, of course, Islamists can employ Western technologies; Saudis didn't invent the airplane but they used them to great effect on 9/11. Sobran underplays the threat by calling Islam an "irritation" rather than "a fundamental danger." That coincides nicely with his isolationist ostrich-in-the-sand ideology, but despite the erroneous conclusion, Sobran's column convinced me that The Closing of the Muslim Mind should be on my bookshelf post haste. Even Conservative politics is about bringing home the bacon CJAD reports: Conservative minister Josée Verner says she's pleased with the fact that Quebec city has gotten a disproportionate about of federal funding, compared to Montreal.As Verner says, "I'm really happy to deliver." Of course she is. Now, to be fair, stimulus money need not go to cities and regions proportionately. If you are going to have such a program, it should be based on need. Perhaps QC needs the stimulus more than Montreal. CJAD concluded its report: "Ottawa's stimulus money is meant to create jobs, and Montreal has one of the highest unemployment rates in the province."Okay, never mind. Continetti on Beck An excellent article on the Tea Party by Matthew Continetti in the current Weekly Standard. It is worth reading in its entirety, but I want to highlight a portion that focusses on Glenn Beck: When he refers to progressivism, Beck is not only highlighting the liberals’ latest name for liberalism. He is referring to the ideas of John Dewey, Herbert Croly, and Walter Lippmann. According to Beck (and many others), these early 20th-century thinkers believed that there is no such thing as natural right. The Constitution, in their view, was not equipped to deal with the complexities of modern society. They argued that government should do more to protect free competition by busting trusts, and also promote equality and individual development through redistribution. The progressive tendency found political expression in Theodore Roosevelt’s “New Nationalism” speech of 1910 and in Woodrow Wilson’s presidency from 1913-1921. It became the foundation for FDR’s New Deal.The folks at Reason.com chime in, too: And it's always hyperbolic, heavy-breathing stuff, no matter the subject. I loathe Woodrow Wilson, but was he, as Beck recently announced on his television show, "the most evil dude ever"? Nor am I a fan of the journalist Walter Lippmann, though what of Beck’s bizarre claim that the Public Opinion author, whose books are “diabolical,” was “almost as evil, if not more evil” than Woodrow Wilson? Two days, two good decisions from Canadian courts "Judge: Quebec Gvmt ‘Totalitarian’ in Imposing Relativism Course" "Ontario’s Highest Court: Ob/Gyns Owe Care to Unborn Child." You can red the Ontario Court of Appeal decision here. Both stories are from LifeSiteNews.com. Pay-what-you-want restaurants Salon interviews Tyler Cowen about the idea. Of course, for Cowen what a customer pays is all about signalling: You do it once to prove to yourself and others how charitable you are, but how many people go back 17 times? I would find it a burden -- my reputation is on the line. What if I only pay $ 27 instead of $ 34? What does my date think? What does my wife think? You end up wanting to feel liberated and just paying a listed cash price. I think there's no way to solve that problem.Well, it's not all about signalling: You can have a small number of restaurants that use it, but if every restaurant were like that, it would never work. It gets people talking. It's like Radiohead -- for the first group that does it, it's a good idea, but is it a good model for the industry? Not really. Imagine McDonald's at Times Square working on this principle. If you kept on going or eating they would discourage you from coming.Neither McDonald's, which serves mostly youth and the poor, or something at Times Square, which would serve tourists who already think Manhattan is expensive, are very good examples, but you get the point. Perhaps the best headline ever From the Wall Street Journal: "Even the French Hate the French." It is, of course, World Cup related. World Cup (day 13 predictions) England 2, Slovenia 1 The English offense has been pretty close to non-existent and Wayne Rooney hasn't been much of a factor. Still, it is hard to believe that they don't have a winning game in them. Slovenian netminder Samir Handanovic will keep game close. United States 1, Algeria 0 I haven't been impressed by the Americans at all, but Algeria doesn't present a scoring threat against goalkeeper Tim Howard although their defense might give the anemic US offense some trouble. Americans squeak through. Serbia 2, Australia 0 The Socceroos will have Harry Kewell and Craig Moore out due to cards, but will get back midfielder Tim Cahill. Serbia hasn't played well and normally analysis should avoid such predictions but I just think the Serbian team is due for an outbreak performance. They have much more talent and clearly superior defenders and when it is clicking their system exploits the weaknesses of opponents. Germany 3, Ghana 1 Germany, its 1-0 loss to Serbia notwithstanding, is a great team with flexibility in both tactics and personnel, numerous scoring threats, and a never-say-die attitude. Ghana's Asamoah Gyan is the most formidable striker threat the Germans have faced thus far this tourney, but it won't be enough. Germany is clearly the superior team and they have a lot to prove after their loss in game two. Tuesday, June 22, 2010
World Cup recap (day 12) Uruguay edged past Mexico 1-0; I predicted a Uruguay victory but with more scoring (3-1). Mexico had a big edge in possession (59%-41%) but it seemed closer than that. Both teams hustled and the game was exciting to watch. As good as Uruguay's offense is, they won Group A on the strength of its defense: they were just the fourth squad in World Cup history to not allow a goal in the group stage. Game grade: A- South Africa defeated France 2-1. I thought France would win by that score. While this looks terrible on France and the natural conclusion to a controversy-filled World Cup for Les Bleus, Bafana Bafana probably won because they had a man advantage as midfielder Yoann Gourcuff was sent off at the 25th minute. That said, South Africa was already leading 1-0 at the time of the red card. Possession was dead even, but South Africa had 21 shots with 10 on target compared to 10 shots for France with four on target. South Africa hit two posts in the second half, so the game could easily have been more lop-sided. Neither team makes the elimination phase, with South Africa becoming the first host team ever not to advance. Game grade: B- South Korea and Nigeria played to a 2-2 tie, although I thought the Asian side would beat the African one 2-1. Both played with a lot of urgency. Defender Lee Jung Soo scored his second goal of the tournament by getting past the wall on a free kick and placing the ball into the net. Games are not linear so who knows what would have happened afterward but Yakubu heeled a ball wide when he had a large, open net to score on, early in the second half. With ten minutes left and the score tied, Obafemi Martins chipped a shot over the goalkeeper but wide to the right. It was an exciting game with the Super Eagles clearly playing for the three points it needed to advance to the round of 16, but the South Koreans were lucky enough to avoid the loss and will move on to the elimination round instead. Game grade: B+ I was exactly correct in predicting Argentina's 2-0 win over Greece. At times, Argentina looked like it was merely toying with the Greeks. Eight players had 50 or more touches -- all Argentines, while not one Greek touched the ball 40 times. After numerous scoring chances, the South American side scored at the 78th minute and built on their lead 11 minutes later. Diego Maradona changed seven players for this contest, but played Lionel Messi the full game despite injury risk and the need to keep him fit. That decision was troubling, but not as baffling as the one made by Greece's coach, Otto Rehhagel. Greece needed a win but played defensively throughout the match, being out-shot 22-7, and being out-shot on target 12-3. Argentina is always wonderful to watch, but Greece's play was dismal. Game grade: B- A really great post on so many levels Edward Glaeser has a longish post at Economix on the fact that people live longer in cities (notably New York City) than in the country. That is a change from the middle of the 19th century, even the early 1990s. As Glaeser notes: In the 19th century, 2½ percent of the population died in a normal year, and during extreme events, like the cholera epidemics of 1832 and 1849, 5 percent of the population might perish. Since 1991, no more than 1 percent of New Yorkers have died in a given year, and in 2008 only 0.65 percent of the city perished.What happened? Government programs: cleaning up the garbage and the creation of a safe water infrastructure. As Glaeser notes: I’m a big fan of the free market, and I see lots to like in liberty. But the downsides of proximity, be they cholera or crime, have never been solved with laissez-faire. Costly, often intrusive public action has often been needed to manage the negative externalities associated with urban density.I'm not sure that some of these programs cannot be provided by the free market, but clearly these are government programs that work. Furthermore, there is a political lesson to be drawn on this positive experience with government for city-dwellers. In a sense, the gulf between the political attitudes of New York City and Montana can be understood as a reflection of the fact that city dwellers need government a lot more than ranchers do. Rules for aid William Easterly has a post entitled, "What don’t make sense in trade don’t make sense in aid," because, as he explains, "Common sense principles in international trade are surprisingly useful for aid as well." To provide just one of the five examples: 3) Don’t do dumping; it is illegal. Exporters are not supposed to charge a much lower price abroad than they do domestically, driving local producers out of business – that’s called dumping, and it’s illegal under WTO rules. Wait, unless the dumper is USAID and it’s called food aid. Actually, US food aid violates all of these first three principles. Best line about the BP spill E. Frank Stephenson from Division of Labour: Too bad there's not a seasteaded Walmart to come to the rescue. Le Monde on the brink The Monday Note reports that it will run out of cash in a few weeks. The headline implies the French paper is likely to disappear, which is not true as there is no shortage of potential new owners. The paper's editorial independence might be an issue, but its (at least short-term) existence is not. The article is lengthy and detailed and well worth reading. Of course, Le Monde is not the only French paper facing near crisis: As of today, four major properties are on the block, or urgently looking for saviors:That despite the fact that about 10% of the industry's revenues come from public subsidies. An EU without Germamy? Gerard Baker writes in this week's Spectator that Greece ain't leaving, but Germany should: So a Greek departure from the eurozone is almost unthinkable. But there’s a better option. If Germany left the eurozone itself, it would at a stroke free itself from an increasingly intolerable fiscal burden and leave the weaker countries with some chance of managing their way out of crisis. The euro would presumably decline sharply against the deutsche mark, but that would not necessarily bankrupt the Greek government and companies, because their debts would still be payable in euros.Baker envisions other countries (Netherlands, Belgium, Austria) whose economies are heavily integrated into the German one, would consider leaving if the Germans did. France, then, "would face a difficult decision whether to stay with the southern and eastern Europeans or join the Germans." Of course, Germany is as likely to leave as Greece, but that doesn't mean it doesn't make sense for all concerned that a split is the best possible alternative. World Cup (day 12 predictions) Uruguay 3, Mexico 1 When Uruguay is at its best, its offense is nearly unstoppable. I think Uruguay will be at its best in order to try to win Group A. Both get through to the Round of 16 with a tie, but Mexico needs a win to finish atop the group and avoid probable Group B winner Argentina in the next round. To do that defender Rafael Marquez and his line mates will have to stop prolific scorer Diego Forlan. France 2, South Africa 1 The French squad is facing incredible turmoil, but getting rid of starting striker Nicolas Anelka can do nothing but make the team better; he has been invisible in the attack, failing to complete scoring chances created by his wingers. Les Bleus is infinitely more talented than Bafana Bafana, so despite the controversy stemming from the team's walkout on the weekend training session, France wins. However, it won't be by the large margin they'll need to advance to the next round. South Korea 2, Nigeria 1 South Korea will go through to the next round with a victory and can advance with less than a win with help from Greece; Nigeria needs a win and Greece loss. South Korea's offense has had its moments, sparked by playmaking midfielder Park Ji-Sung. Nigeria's success has improbably depended on unheralded goalkeeper Vincent Enyeama. Nigeria will be without midfielder Sani Kaita who was red-carded against Greece. Nigeria striker Obafemi Martins has to step up his game and impose his presence for the Super Eagles to have any chance of winning -- and advancement. Argentina 2, Greece 0 Argentina has played the prettiest soccer this World Cup with beautiful precision passes which minimize running and conserves energy. Striker Lionel Messi hasn't scored a goal yet this tourney but he has sparked an unrelenting Argentine offense. Expect Messi and other stars to be rested once victory is all but assured. Monday, June 21, 2010
One of the smartest political comments I have ever read Craig Newmark, of Newmark's Door, says of Mitch Daniels: "There's some important things to like." I like that, because it is good advice for those who think candidates need to be perfect. (I'd add, however, that there should be some minimum threshold for enough important things to like.) Strangest product ever? From Courntey Dunlop at Marie Claire: But no amount of crazy compares to the thread I saw on a bridal message board (which shall remain nameless), on which a future bride explains that her insanely enormous dress takes 20 minutes to get in and out of, and the oh-so-helpful bridal shop manager suggested she wear bridal diapers so she doesn’t have to worry about going to the bathroom.As Instapundit says, "If your wedding dress is too elaborate to fit in a bathroom, maybe it’s just too elaborate, period?" Not Rondi's Turkey Rondi Adamson writes in the National Post about the Turkey in which she taught high school not all that long ago (early '90s), and laments the Islamist changes occurring in that country: Under Kemalist secularism, Islam was kept squarely out of the classroom, in spite of the fact that at different moments of the day whatever wisdom we teachers were trying to impart was drowned out by the call to prayer from the neighbourhood mosque. Simple headscarves were not allowed on school grounds, let alone niqabs. The sight of a niqab-clad woman -- not a common one back then in Istanbul -- would prompt my students to shake their heads and blame it on Iran. Obama: orator or blowhard? Newsweek columnist George F. Will on President Barack Obama's BP speech last week: "The news about his speech is that it is no longer news that he often gives bad speeches. This one, however, was almost magnificently awful." After dissecting the banalities, treacle and mushy truisms, Will concludes: Diminishing returns from his rhetoric may reflect the public’s recoil from wretched excess everywhere. The unceasing torrent of his ill-chosen words is analogous to the unstoppable oil spill, which itself resembles his and his party’s incontinent spending. Just as congressional Democrats’ budget strategy is to have no budget, Obama’s communication strategy is to have no silence. Having no budget means, as Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) says, having no priorities and hence no restraints. Having no communication strategy means him being constantly in the nation’s face, hectoring incessantly, unconstrained by priorities. Globe: 'Lift the cap, end the subsidy' The Globe and Mail ran an editorializes today on the need to increase the political donation caps and eliminate the $1.95 yearly subsidy for every vote a party gets in the previous election. In the dead tree edition of the paper the headline is "Lift the cap, end the subsidy" but online it's "Political parties need to raise their own money." Either gets the point across. The subsidy has not achieved either one of the goals its sponsors offered for implementing the policy: increasing voter turnout by ensuring that their 'votes count' or cleaning up politics. And in some way it may have made politics worse by further centralizing the power of the parties. But parties need money so the Globe quite correctly suggests that donation limits be raised, noting that several countries (including Australia, Germany and the UK) have no cap whatsoever. Political donations, argues the Globe, enhances democracy: Ideally, political parties are well-funded while deriving support from a broad base of partisans and democratically-minded individuals. Their very act of donating helps enhance democracy. Laws and public financing systems should support these private decisions. Saturday, June 19, 2010
World Cup (day 9 predictions) Netherlands 2, Japan 0 Japan looked good against Cameroon, but they'll have trouble scoring against the Dutch and their man-to-man marking defense might frustrate the Dutch surging attack for a while, but it will be difficult to keep up for 90 minutes. I doubt the Dutch will start Rafael van der Vaart on the wing as he was mediocre (at best) against Denmark on Monday and the team really picked up after he was taken off the field. Expect the Dutch to penetrate the box repeatedly, both up the middle and from the wings with both dangerous crosses and daring runs. It won't succeed every time, but they'll create lots of chances and the percentages take over at some point and multiple goals are scored. The Netherlands have never lost to an Asian team. While anything is possible -- Algeria holding England to a scoreless tie, Serbia and Switzerland upsetting Germany and Spain respectively by 1-0 scores -- it doesn't appear that the Blue Samurai have what it takes to become the first team from Asia to down the Dutch. Ghana 2, Australia 1 The German loss against Serbia yesterday means that all the teams can still battle for the two spots to advance to the round of 16. Australia will have difficulties with midfielder Tim Cahill out due to suspension and forward Harry Kewell probably out of action again due to fitness. It's hard to see where they will get their scoring opportunities from, but the Ghana defense is certainly beatable. However, I like striker Asamoah Gyan's chances to break into the box for scoring opportunities. Ghana ekes out the victory. Cameroon 1, Denmark 1 I'm not enamoured with either team. I think Cameroon can play much better than they did against Japan and expect Samuel Eto'o to do more in finishing attacks. Denmark is a bit of enigma, flashing moments of strong defense against the Dutch in game one, but those moments were punctuated by lapses and complete breakdowns as the game wore on. Both are flawed teams and neither seems to have the killer instinct. Probably a dull game with neither side executing particularly well: the Danes are weak on offense (mostly due to injuries), Cameroon on defense. Friday, June 18, 2010
World Cup recap (day 8) Serbia beat Germany 1-0 after the Germans lost a man about a third into the game. I predicted a 3-1 victory for the Germans. This will rate as something of an upset but a few things to keep in mind: 1) the Germans were playing with just ten on the pitch, 2) the Serbs came into the tourney capable of winning with superior defense and efficient possessions, and 3) the Germans still outplayed the Serbs despite playing with just ten men -- it's hard to score shorthanded. Game grade: B Slovenia and USA tied 2-2. I correctly predicted a tie, but thought it would be scoreless. I was dead wrong to say: "I don't see either team garnering much offense." The first half was dullish with just six shots and few good opportunities for the Americans. A goal was scored but recalled by the Americans at the 82nd minute for ... some imperceptible reason. Thus far this World Cup one of the positive stories is how little the referees have not been part of the story of any game. Not so today with Koman Coulibaly, the referee from Mali, making numerous questionable calls, most notably disallowing Maurice Edu's goal off a free kick when a phantom foul was called. At the 79th minute American coach Bob Bradley substituted striker Herculez Gomez for a defender, a bold move that resulted in two goals in the final 15 minutes (if you include the goal that was not allowed). The move added a lot of excitement to the final sixth of the game and gave the US a point and a chance at victory. Game grade: B Algeria and England played to a dreary 0-0 draw. I predicted England winning three-nil. The game was back-and-forth, but neither side did much to finish their attacks. England looked hopeless and Algeria played much better than I expected, but not well enough to score. Game grade: F Lomborg: don`t cut carbon emissions Forbes has 25 Ideas to Change the World -- some do not look very promising or even interesting -- but Bjorn Lomborg`s is worth reading. He says: Focusing on the data instead of indulging our fears would allow us to realize three things. First, there's an awful lot about the planet that is getting better (e.g. air pollution, clean water, nutrition). Second, many of the problems we've been told to worry about (e.g., the use of fertilizers) are not problems at all. Third, some of the "solutions" we've spent many years and billions of dollars pursuing may not actually be making things better.One of those issues that we are ignoring the data about is so-called climate change. Lomborg says that cutting fossil fuel use in the developing world is ``both impractical and immoral.`` He does not deny man-made climate change, but he says it would make more sense from a cost-benefit analysis to focus on other issues that would help mankind much more than fretting about an extra degree or two a century from now. Of cutting fossil fuel use and limiting carbon output, he says: This approach might make sense if we were able to offer developing countries practical, affordable alternatives to coal and oil. But we cannot--and as long as we can't, all we're really doing when we call for massive carbon cuts is asking the world's poor people to continue living lives of misery and deprivation. Dads are not optional W. Bradford Wilcox, director of the National Marriage Project at the University of Virginia and a member of the Commission on Parenthood's Future, writes in the Wall Street Journal about mothers who choose to parent alone -- that is, without fathers as nothing but (formal) sperm donors. He said there is a view of a popular view of parenting that fathers are unnecessary as long as the mother provides a ``caring and supportive`` environment. Wilcox says: That view ran into some major trouble this month, with the release of the report, "My Daddy's Name is Donor," by the Commission on Parenthood's Future (of which I am a member). The report is the first study to compare a large random sample of 485 young adults (18-45) conceived through donor insemination to 563 young adults conceived the old-fashioned way.The full study, press release and executive summary of ``My Daddy’s Name is Donor: A New Study of Young Adults Conceived through Sperm Donation,`` is available at the Family Scholars website. Krauthammer on Obama`s BP speech An excerpt from Charles Krauthammer`s Washington Post column: Pedestrian is beneath Obama. Mr. Fix-It he is not. He is world-historical, the visionary, come to make the oceans recede and the planet heal.President Barack Obama is not interested in the details of everyday governance. He is Big Picture. That`s why he doesn`t care about the BP spill except in the context that it creates the opportunity to push for the game-changing cap and trade scheme. This tendency could be a problem for the president come 2012. Having presented his vision, American voters might wonder about its implementation. Good news for Toyota Forbes reports on the best selling cars in America, but more important than the interesting list of what vehicles sell the most, is this tidbit about Toyota: Despite massive recalls and more than 300 pending lawsuits for unintended acceleration, Toyota recently reported $1.2 billion in quarterly profits, up from an $8.3 billion loss in the same period last year. Total sales for the beleaguered automaker exceeded $57 billion, up more than $11 billion from 2009.Specifically: Still the Toyota Camry was one of the country's bestselling cars last month--and last year the Camry and Toyota Corolla were Nos. 2 and 3 for total sales. As of May 2010 they have each sold more than 118,000 units and are well on track to retaining their place in 2009 as the bestselling of any cars in America, second only to Ford's longtime leader, the F-Series pickup truck. World Cup (day 8 predictions) Germany 3, Serbia 1 Before the tourney I thought that this contest might be one of the better of the first round of the World Cup, but the Germans looked extremely strong in their match against the Australians (an admittedly weak team) while the Serbs looked very mediocre against Ghana (a middling team without their star Michael Essien). Midfielder Bastian Schweinsteiger is fighting off a cold and his fitness is essential in maintaining the variety of attacks Germany uses (up the middle, down the wings). The German side has a nice blend of youth (Mesut Ozil, Thomas Muller) and veterans (Lukas Podolski, Miroslav Klose) that will sustain the chances created by the midfield; Ozil had one of the best opening games in the tournament, adding a lot of unexpected speed to the German side, creating opportunities for the veterans who are playing in the middle. Milos Krasic and Milan Jovanovic have to do much better to get things started on the wings for the Serbs, but the German defensive midfielders and defenders should be up to the challenge of preventing the Serbs from getting many scoring chances. While I think Manchester United Nemanja Vidic is one of the better central midfielders, he won`t be enough to stop the attacking blitz of the German side. Slovenia 0, United States 0 I don't see either team garnering much offense and the American backfield has a solid duo in the middle with Jay DeMerit and Oguchi Onyewu to thwart anything the Slovenian side might get going. Midfielder Landon Donovan is vastly over-rated and he is touted as the Americans offensive spark despite not scoring a World Cup goal since the second round of the 2002 tournament. Striker Jozy Altidore showed that he can be dangerous in the penalty area and he is a nice complement to Clint Dempsey in the attack. The game will be kept close as it features what are probably the fifth and sixth best goalkeepers in the tournament: Samir Handanovic (Slovenia) and Tim Howard (US). A different pair of goalkeepers and I would predict a 1-1 result. While the conventional wisdom is that both teams will play for three points, I just don't see either team being able to execute. England 3, Algeria 0 The English are a vastly superior team with numerous scoring threats in both the forward and midfield positions. Algeria just won't be able to stop the English nor get much started against them. Thursday, June 17, 2010
World Cup recap (day 7) Argentina beat South Korea 4-1, a wider margin than the 2-1 I predicted. It is surprising that Argentina scored four goals and yet Lionel Messi never put a ball in the net. Gonzalo Higuain was a major poacher -- he scored one goal after Messi recovered his own rebound and then shot and hit the goal post -- and became the first player to score a hat trick since the 2002 World Cup. It was a pleasing game with La Albiceleste seeking more goals even with a three-goal lead. They had 11 shots on target compared to just two for the Koreans. I don't get why Park Ji-Sung was moved from the wing to the center. I also thought the Argentine defense looked vulnerable at times. Game grade: A- Greece 2, Nigeria 1. I thought Nigeria would win a decisive 2-0 victory, but Greece scored twice after the Super Eagles went down a man after Sani Kaita was red carded at the 33rd minute for shoving and then kicking at one of the Greek players. Nigeria still had a number of runs up the field and appeared poised to tie the game but instead they have been eliminated from the Round of 16 with a meaningless (for them) game against South Korea next week. Game grade: C- France probably cannot make the Round of 16 after losing 2-0 to Mexico. I predicted a 2-2 tie, but Les Bleus ended up not playing Yoann Gourcoff at all and striker Nicolas Anelka continued to look anemic on the attack. If you look at the stats there is the appearance of a close game, but Mexico was solidly in control and played with a mission to make it to the next round whereas France appeared to treat the game like a pre-tournament friendly. Mexico showed some great stuff, especially new Man U forward Javier Hernandez, a sub who came into the game at the 55th minute and scored nine minutes later. Game grade: C+ Why educators suck From the New York Times: One might be tempted to feel some sympathy for the younger son. After all, from Tom Sawyer and Huck Finn to Harry Potter and Ron Weasley, the childhood “best friend” has long been romanticized in literature and pop culture — not to mention in the sentimental memories of countless adults.Apparently the "experts" -- who invariably are not parents or the children themselves -- think the phenomenon of best friend smacks of exclusivity and thus must be stamped out: But the classic best-friend bond — the two special pals who share secrets and exploits, who gravitate to each other on the playground and who head out the door together every day after school — signals potential trouble for school officials intent on discouraging anything that hints of exclusivity, in part because of concerns about cliques and bullying.Unfortunately, a good many independent schools fall for such fashionable but silly thinking, so to protect your children and their desire to have a best friend you have to home school or encourage them to practice their friendship clandestinely. Three and out 3. Bill Chuck presents nine really interesting facts from the season so far (as of yesterday's games) at Bats, the baseball blog of the New York Times. For example: "Phillies and Nationals right-handed pitchers have each given up 38 homers, and Phillies and National lefties have each given up 26 homers." None, other than #3 is very meaningful, but most will you make you go hmmmm. 2. Joe Sheehan looks at the numbers behind ERAs and wins that demonstrate which pitchers might be a little on the unlucky side. The underlying numbers -- home run-to-fly ball ratio, strand rate, and batting average on balls in play -- are better indicators of whether the traditional numbers are likely to be sustained. Of course, it works in the opposite direction for lucky pitchers, too. Ubaldo Jimenez has put up unreal numbers, but it will likely regress to something like normal because 91.3% of base runners get stranded and that's not sustainable. 1. Biz of Baseball notes that MLB's Constitution and By-Laws are now available online. Some of it makes interesting reading, but it is a pretty standard legal document. How to win elections This is the first thing Al Hunt has been right about in years. Bloomberg columnist Albert Hunt begins this week's offering thusly: Politicians and political scientists debate whether the greater priority in achieving electoral success in the U.S. is to energize a party’s base or appeal to independent-minded centrists.That's true, and it's a fact that is not entirely understood or appreciated. Don't read his column any further because it's all downhill from there, a bunch of Huntian blah, blah, blah rehashing recent news before offering some lame commentary about the Tea Party battling those vaunted centrists for the soul of the Republican Party. However, elections are won by getting out the base and pulling in more centrist and uncommitted voters than your opponents. It is important for principled conservatives as well as the ideologically committed centrists (the Frumkins, The Economist) and those on the Left that constantly hector the Republicans to be a big tent, to remember this. The cost of Obama's drilling moratorium John Kemp, a Reuters columnist specialising in energy and commodity markets, blogs: Deepwater oil production in the Gulf of Mexico accounted for 23 percent of all oil produced in the United States last year, and 7 percent of all crude consumed in the nation’s refineries, according to the Energy Information Administration’s “Annual Energy Outlook.” On tipping Via Economix, a James Surowiecki New Yorker article on tipping from 2005: Restaurant workers in the United States make more than twenty-five billion dollars a year in tips, so it’s natural that people think of the custom as quintessentially American. But it wasn’t always. Tipping didn’t take hold here until after the Civil War, and even as it spread it met with fervent public opposition from people who considered it a toxic vestige of Old World patronage. Anti-tipping associations were formed; newspapers—including the Times—regularly denounced the custom. Tipping, the activists held, fostered a masterservant relationship that was ill suited to a nation in which people were meant to be social equals.It is interesting throughout. Courtney Knapp, who is among the roster of guest bloggers replacing Megan McCardle (presumably while she is honeymooning), would like to replace tipping with a service fee: I would like to see America move toward a standard service fee at restaurants and bars, abolishing the tip.My personal preference would be for prices to adequately reflect the cost of service. World Cup (day 7 predictions) Argentina 2, South Korea 1 Lionel Messi is looking for goals. Park Ji-Sung is a great playmaker who can get the ball into the net himself. Should be a great contest, but Messi has a larger supporting cast. South Korea's attack-the-ball style might disrupt the precision passing game of La Albiceleste, but in the end it won't be enough. Nigeria 2, Greece 0 If Nigeria plays as sloppily as it did in game one against Argentina, they'll have trouble winning, but I think they will play a more imaginative and skillful game against the Greeks. Nigerian goalkeeper Vincent Enyeama was stellar in preventing Lionel Messi from accumulating goals and no one on the Greek side should pose nearly the threat as the Argentine striker. Greece has never scored in the World Cup (in four games), and the drought continues. Mexico 2, France 2 The reports out of the French camp is that there will be different players and tactics for this match, with Florent Malouda and Franck Ribery both starting as wingers and Yoann Gourcuff playing more of a forward midfielder role, with everyone helping to feed the lone striker, Nicolas Anelka. It might work, but I wasn't impressed at all by Anelka in the first game and would like to see the team try someone different in the position. Still, the changes could make the French attack more formidable and Ribery is himself a scoring threat. But the new alignment will open the field to Mexico's attack or counter-attack and expose a French defensive line that looked iffy against Uruguay in game one. I won't be surprised if France wins -- the changed personnel and tactics, the nearly desperate need for three points -- but I'm buying into the idea Mexico is a legit contender still. They are making their own adjustments and I like replacing Paul Aguilar, who didn't impress in the first match, with Andres Guardado, to pair with Carlos Vela on the attack. I think it will pay dividends. Wednesday, June 16, 2010
Midweek stuff 1. ShootForTheHead.com has five chick flicks that would be better with zombies. Bonus SFTH.com: "Top 10 Bloodiest Zombie Movie Body Counts." 2. From the Wall Street Journal: "Why Relaxing Is Hard Work." Subtitled: "You're on Vacation, but the Brain Is Wired to the Office; Some Tactics to Detach." 3. Slate looks at "Why lawsuits based on looks discrimination—even good ones—are a bad idea." Or, why you can fire people for looking hot. 4. From underwear to laptops to makeup US News and World Report has "20 things you should never buy used." 5. Q&A with Matt Ridley, author of The Rational Optimist, at Freakonomics. 6. From the excellent Tetrapodzoology blog at Science Blogs: Can giraffes swim or float? 7. Psycho turns 50 this week. Writing in the Wall Street Journal, Jack Sullivan examines the music that made the movie. 8. "Highlight video of the England-United States game, recreated by Lego minifigures and including the game audio" (via Goal, the soccer blog of the New York Times): World Cup recap (day 6) I correctly predicted the 1-0 result in favour of Chile over Honduras but this game was more more lop-sided than the score indicates or than I expected. Chile controlled possession for 56% of the game (70% according to MatchAnalysis.com's more advanced metrics), out-shot Honduras 23-7, and allowed just one shot in the second half. Chile never let up, taking four shots in the final three minutes of the match. They passed well, built up their attacks, and showered shots on Honduran goalkeeper Noel Valladares from the third minute on. The Chileans were unfortunate that their lone goal was Jean Beausejour's 34th-minute winner, and his goal wasn't their best-played scoring chance by any means. Winning their first World Cup tournament game in exactly 48 years to the day, Chile established themselves as a strong squad. Game grade: B+ Every prediction that I saw had Spain winning three-nil over Switzerland. I took a more conservative approach with a 2-0 victory. The Swiss stunned the Spaniards and the world with a 1-0 upset even though Spain dominated the game. They controlled possession by a huge 63%-37% margin; they took 27 shots compared to Switzerland's 7 -- Spain had 8 shots on target compared to just three for the Swiss. Spain had 12 corners compared to three. Of the eight players who touched the ball more than 51 times, all were Spanish. The referee seemed to favour the Spanish side, giving four yellows to Switzerland and none to Spain, making several questionable calls, and also adding an unwarranted five minutes injury time. But even with the assist from the English ref, Switzerland was victorious. Game grade: B+ South Africa just fell apart as Uruguay's offense (read: Diego Forlan who netted a pair and unusually for an attacker, led his team with 65 touches) went on an attacking blitz that resulted in a 3-0 victory. The home team had a pair of scoring opportunities in the final minutes to reduce the margin of loss, but nothing materialized. I predicted Uruguay would win by a narrower 2-1 margin, but I did correctly predict their offense, with a third attacker, would go on a tear. South Africa, with just one point in two games, already faces an uphill battle to the round of 16, but they'll try to beat France without its heart and soul, midfielder Steven Piennar, who collected his second yellow card in the opening minutes of this contest, as well as starting netminder Itumeleng Khune, who was red-carded when he brought down Luis Suarez in the penalty area, who was surely going to score at the 76th minute (instead, Forlan did on the penalty kick). Uruguay looked like it would threaten any team in the tourney; South Africa looked pathetic. Game grade: B Multiculturalism gets messy with honour killings Reporting on the case of Aqsa Parvez's murder at the hands of her father Muhammad and broth Waqas, the Globe and Mail states: Observers say the case, among the first so-called honour killings to gain widespread attention in Canada, will cast a spotlight on generational strains that can tear at families adapting to a new culture."Adapting to a new culture;" "generational strains." Niceties to avoid examining the issue that Islam is not compatible with western, liberal democracy. Three and out 3. Pat Andriola at Fangraphs looks at the overperforming bats of the Toronto Blue Jays -- Vernon Wells, Jose Bautista, Alex Gonzalez, Fred Lewis and John Buck -- which is more than making up for the cold bats of Aaron Hill, Lyle Overbay, and Adam Lind. Some Jays fans will say to themselves if just Hill and Lind would start hitting, this team could make a move in the AL East, it is just as likely (more likely) that Bautista, Gonzalez and Buck will regress to normal, thus neutralizing gains made by a more "typical" Hill or Lind season. 2. Arne Christensen at Hardball Times looks at why Albert Pujols was picked in the 13th round of the 1999 amateur draft. Really worth reading. There were concerns about his body, sloppy shortstop play and that his unusual swing would be exposed at the professional level. But as one observer said of the Pujols the high school player, he could hit homeruns with toothpicks. 1. From 1979-1981 the New York Yankees had a muppet-like mascot, Dandy (created by the maker of Miss Piggy, in fact). The Wall Street Journal has an article and video on this monstrosity. Green Party loses 'key player' to Bloc Quebecois The Ottawa Sun reports: Elizabeth May's Green Party lost a key player Tuesday when high-profile deputy leader Jacques Rivard jumped to the sovereigntist Bloc Quebecois.You can go on, but I'm having trouble with the idea of the Green Party having a "key player." The Greens aren't enough of a real party to have key people. Canada's Fox News Kathy Shaidle says it should be more like Fox News and less like Canada. So far, she thinks it's missing the mark. Here's the website for Sun TV News. Of course, an alternative to the CBC is wanted and needed, but it might not be quite the thing Canada's conservatives are looking for, either. C.S. Lewis on good government Writing at Mere Comments, Jordan J. Ballor notes this paragraph from The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe by C.S. Lewis: These two Kings and two Queens governed Narnia well, and long and happy was their reign. At first much of their time was spent in seeking out the remnants of the White Witch’s army and destroying them, and indeed for a long time there would be news of evil things lurking in the wilder parts of the forest—a haunting here and a killing there, a glimpse of a werewolf one month and a rumor of a hag the next. But in the end all that foul brood was stamped out. And they made good laws and kept the peace and saved good trees from being unnecessarily cut down, and liberated young dwarfs and young satyrs from being sent to school, and generally stopped busybodies and interferers and encouraged ordinary people who wanted to live and let live.Read that last part again: "Generally stopped busybodies and interferers and encouraged ordinary people who wanted to live and let live." Was Lewis a libertarian? I would gladly be a subject to a monarch who governed as such. World Cup (day 6 predictions) Chile 1, Honduras 0 Chile is easily the better team, but the offense has question marks now that attacker Humberto Suazo could be sidelined with an injury. That keeps the game close, but injuries to several key Honduras players prevent them from scoring. Spain 2, Switzerland 0 Spain has lost just one of its past 49 matches going back to 2006. They have the offensive weapons (David Villa and Fernando Torres), a great short passing game (thanks to Xavi Hernández), one of the best playmaking midfielders (Andres Iniesta), an effecient defense (centered on Carles Puyol) and one of the two best goalkeepers in the world (Iker Casillas). Switzerland has injuries. Uruguay 2, South Africa 1 Uruguay is the better team, but it didn't show much in their first game. South Africa showed a lot of fight, some creativity and has the home advantage. The South American squad is adding a third attacker to the mix to shake things up and I think they'll score enough to win, but the extra attacker leaves them vulnerable on the counter-attack. Tuesday, June 15, 2010
Tweeting a wedding Libertarian journalists Megan McCardle and Peter Suderman got married and apparently there was a lot of tweeting going on. Timothy Lee defends the thoroughly modern wedding, noting that it is not for everyone. Lee makes a point I've made here: many social media are ... well, social. People view time spent in the e-world to be less legitimate than the so-called real world, but it isn't so: There's a school of thought that says this is tacky and even anti-social. On this view, people should be interacting in "real life" with the happy couple and each other, not ignoring each other as they stare at their cell phones. This isn't a view I share. For starters, no one was tweeting to the exclusion of face-to-face communication. One of the best things about Twitter is that it's extremely lightweight. You can read and write tweets in a few seconds, often during times (such as waiting in line for a drink) when you wouldn't be talking to anyone anyway. We did plenty of talking, dancing, eating, and drinking along with our tweeting. |